Is it too early to talk about the midterm elections? Probably, but whatev.
We will make this point a thousand times between now and November so gird your loins, reader(s).
Elections are about circumstances, ideas and candidates. If you have any two you're in good shape. If you have all three you win.
For example, during the 2002 midterm elections the Dems had some good candidates, Governor Jean Shaheen in NH, Lt. Gov Kathleen KENNEDY Townsend in MD. But post 9/11 the circumstances sucked for Dems. Worse the party had no ideas. So the GOP upset them and gained Senate seats.
Four years later in 2006 the Dems had great ideas like getting out of Iraq and 'had enough corruption'. The circumstances sucked for the GOP and a lot of good candidates like Tom Kean Jr in NJ lost. In fact it was a wipe out and the GOP lost the House and Senate.
So, if you're looking for a Blue Wave this fall, look for circumstances, ideas, and candidates.