Thursday, May 10, 2018

In the Comming Middle East War...

...Iran's chances look bad, no?

Israel has been hitting Iranian targets in Syria for months, last night they hit dozens more. The Times of Israel notes:
Israel’s retaliation — which reportedly involved more than two dozen fighter jets, firing several dozen missiles, as well as ground fire at targets close to the border — targeted dozens of Iranian military targets including intelligence centers, weapons depots, storage facilities, observation posts, and logistics centers. Syria’s own air-defense facilities were also targeted, the Israeli army said, in what amounted to the largest-ever direct clash between the Iranian and Israeli militaries, and the largest exchange involving Israel in Syria since the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
It seems obvious to us that there is little happening in Syria that the Israelis do not no about. Last night they knew where and when to hit the Iranians.

At the same time this Iranian effort of 20 rockets seems like rather weak tea. As noted previously, where they serious, Iran would have activated Hezbollah in Lebanon. Of course that would have run the risk of revealing rocket storage sites and launchers and exposing Hezbollah to retaliatory action by Israel. Remember the 2006 war started after Hezbollah kidnapped a couple of Israeli soldiers. Hezbollah later admitted they never expected the war Israel gave them. For all the talk of Israel's slow and badly coordinated response, at the end of the war the IDF occupied Lebanon south of the Litani. 

Some questions about Iran:
Did Tehran's fiery rhetoric last week force them to act?  
Is Hezbollah too valuable to risk? 
Has Mossad penetrated other aspects of the Iranian government and nuke program?
At this point what separates Persian military efforts from failed Arab military efforts?  
With America out of the Iran Deal and Israel on the offensive, where does Iran go from here? 
Will Putin protect Iran?

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