From the Foreign Desk: Sir John A. MacDonald

The Saab GlobalEye

Wednesday, the Canadian media was excited, shouting to the rooftops that Canada had decided to purchase the Saab GlobalEye for the Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF). Saab, is of course, a Swedish company and this is being presented to Canadians as further proof that Prime Minister Mark Carney is once again tweaking Donald Trump’s nose by refusing to purchase the Boeing E-7 Wedgetail for the AEW/AWACS capability.

As always, reality is more complicated. There are three painfully obvious reasons that the Canadian government has chosen the Saab GlobalEye over the Boeing E-7 Wedgetail. Those reasons are (in no particular order) cost, politics and practicality. Despite the claims that this is another slap in the face of Trump, it really isn’t. You see, the RCAF has never had any sort of AEW/AWACS capability despite requesting it for decades. So, this is a win for Trump by getting Canada to purchase new capabilities for the armed forces. It is also a win for Canada, but we’ll get to that.

So, why the GlobalEye? The first reason is cost. The Saab GlobalEye is based on a business jet and costs about $350 million US (roughly $450 million Canadian). The E-7 Wedgetail (based on the Boeing 737 airliner) comes in at a more hefty cost of about $800 million US (close to $1 billion Canadian). The Government of Canada earmarked about $5 billion (Canadian) to the project, with about $3 billion earmarked for actually purchasing the aircraft (the rest going to maintenance, upgrades to bases, etc). So, how many aircraft can you buy for $3 billion? Let’s see. If the Wedgetail is about $1 billion each and you have $3 billion that gives you…give me a minute, I was never very good at math…..3 aircraft. At $450 million per aircraft that gives you…..more aircraft. Exact numbers in a minute.

Second reason? Politics. Notice how I didn’t mention what kind of business jet the GlobalEye uses? That’s pretty important. It’s based on the Bombardier Global 6500. And Bombardier is based in – let me check the internet, I’m sure it’s here somewhere – oh yes. Montreal, Quebec. A Canadian company. Do you honestly think the Canadian government would pick a US aircraft over a Canadian one for a big (for the RCAF) project like this? I’ll give you a hint. Would the US replace the F-16 with the Saab Gripen? If you answered no, you are correct.

What makes this project significant is that the announcement is for up to 40 of the aircraft to be built by Bombardier. So, does that mean that the RCAF is buying 40 Saab GlobalEye AEW/AWACS aircraft? Much as I would like to say yes, the answer is no. The RCAF is buying 6. The remainder are likely to be sold to European countries and may replace the NATO E-3 Sentry aircraft that are getting a bit old. Supposedly upgrading their military capability is another insult to Trump. Not sure how, but that’s how it’s being spun in the media these days. Oh, and by the way, you will have a hard time finding mention that the RCAF is still purchasing up to 16 P-8 Poseidens, at least 16 F-35s (and probably the full planned for 88) and at least 26 M142 HIMARS for the Canadian army. So, no, Canada is not turning away from the US for defence needs.

The final reason, and I think the most significant, is practicality. While the E-7 Wedgetail is an impressive aircraft and I would love to see some in the RCAF, if the aircraft are to be used for arctic patrol (which makes sense considering Russian behavior lately) the Wedgetail has some significant drawbacks. First is range. 4,000 miles or 6,500 kilometers. Sounds great, right? Well, it is. Until you start looking at maps and airports in Canada’s north. Quite simply, airports that can handle a 737 are pretty rare up there. Whitehorse, Yukon? Yes. Yellowknife, Northwest Territories? Also yes. Iqualuit, Nunavut….maybe? Put simply, the Wedgetail can get up north, but it would have trouble staying there and performing continuous patrol. A 737 takes a lot of fuel and maintenance which means it would likely be based in southern Canada. CFB Trenton or CFB Winnipeg are the most likely candidates. CFB Comox on Vancouver island or CFB Greenwood in Nova Scotia would also be good places to put the 3 Canada could afford. Maybe forward deploying them every now and then to CFB Goose Bay in Labrador, but realistically, they wouldn’t make it up north very often.

On the other hand, the Bombardier Global 6500 has a range of between 10,000 and 12,000 kilometers. Assuming the AEW equipment would lessen that, it is still longer range than the Wedgetail, which translates to more time on station as well as further patrols and more places it could be realistically based. Add in to the above locations CFB North Bay, Ontario, CFB Cold Lake Alberta or CFB Bagotville in Quebec. Plus, a business jet with longer range and likely not requiring a stronger runway gives more options for forward deployment to the arctic. That is a win for Canada and allows Canada to exercise more control over Canadian airspace and territory in the far north.

So, where will the GlobalEye likely be based? Wherever Mark Carney thinks will get him votes. So, my money is on him to reopen CFB St Hubert in Quebec, just east of Montreal. The Liberals need the votes in Quebec and the aircraft would be close to Bombardier maintenance facilities. I could be wrong, but for now, that’s my bet.

Lastly, will they be used for arctic patrol exclusively? Don’t be ridiculous. They’ll be sent overseas on NATO missions or to work with Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Australia. Maybe South America and the Caribbean every now and then. So Canadian officials can point to the capability and say “See? We contribute too!” Cynical, I know. But probably accurate over the long term.

Not that or that

Good morning, Stroock's Book's Kibbutzim and shabbat shalom. The air is cool, the breeze is pleasant. 

One minute you're on the gurney, receiving anesthesia and blabbing on about how the ceiling is moving, the next you're waking up and the doctor is saying, 'Everything looks great.'  We're not even sore, though we are still a touch woozy from the anesthesia yesterday. 

We have good news. We do not have prostate or esophageal cancer. We just have a few stomach problems.

That's two of the three things down. We'll do a third thing next month. What's with the elevated PSA levels? The internet says, 'PSA levels can rise due to a variety of factors, including prostate enlargement, inflammation, infection, age, medications, and certain physical activities, not just cancer.' 'But is he lucky?' Napoleon once asked. We are not, generally speaking, lucky.* We approach the next thing with great caution. 

There may or may not be a deal with Iran. Trump is 'thinking it over,' they say, because he can. The Israeli press is very pessimistic, but they're like that anyway. It's an Israeli/Jewish thing. And even moderate papers like the Times of Israel are sick of Netanyahu so they're not inclined to be positive. We await details, but what we saw yesterday looks pretty good. Consider also the twin military an economic blows Iran suffered and each day is a new economic hit against Iran.  Reading this, though, Stroock's Books believes that nobody really knows nothing. Exit question: doomers think Iran is stringing Trump along. But what if Trump is stringing Iran along? 

The Jerusalem Post tells us that for the Israeli Opposition Block, 'the math doesn't add up.' Quite right. Naftali Bennett can't quite get to 61 Knesset seats. The election (scheduled for October 27th) is still 50/50 and betting against Netanyahu seems unwise.

Related...Amit Segal tells us that 30 years ago today Benjamin Netanyahu defeated incumbent Prime Minister Shimon Perez. Ah...we remember it well. Back then American comedians made fun of Netanyahu's name, and we recall a dear friend asking us, 'Just how do you pronounce it?'

DOGE report.

Despite working on an empty stomach filled with acid and wondering if we were going to be told we have prostate cancer in the afternoon, we worked on the BAOR story. It's coming along. It'll come along more today. 

Baaaah! More than a week has passed since our Pershing queries. We're writing them off. 

*Dodgers' great Branch Rickey was right, as he was right with most things, when he said, 'Luck is the residue of design.'

Not as Bad as You Think

Good morning, people of Stroock's Books. 

What's with the comment explosion yesterday?

We are allowed black coffee at least. 

We feel remarkably human for having not eaten in 24 hours and having our schedule disrupted. 

So the colonoscopy cleanse wasn't all that bad, though we have to do it again this morning (Update: again, not that bad). Our colonoscopy/endoscopy is scheduled this afternoon. We believe there's a not zero chance there will be some kind of bureaucratic snafu between now and then. We're pessimistic that way. 

DOGE report.

Despite being very annoyed and distracted we worked on the Somotillo aftermath chapter yesterday. Meh. But we're not exactly in the right headspace. 

We also worked the BAOR chapter in the 5th nuke novel. It's coming along. 

Day Before, Day of Annoyance

Yesterday at about 3:30 PM we put our phone down, a feeling of white-hot rage coming over us. You see, we had believed that tomorrow's procedure was going to be just a few miles down the road. No, the procedure will be done in a facility half an hour away. That would have been nice to know a month ago. We're getting pissed off again just writing about it. 

Prep begins shortly. Pray for us. 

We are not necessarily in the most humanistic mood this morning. 

In Texas, AG Ken Paxton obliterated RINO John Cornyn in the Republican senate primary. Paxton is slightly less electable than Cornyn, but he's running against James Talarico who comes off to everyone but gay race Democrats as a weirdo who loiters around locker rooms at odd times. Honestly, had the Dems nominated a normal human we'd still support Paxton. This blog would rather lose with Paxton than win with Cornyn.

Seriously, in 30 years of following politics we've seen the GOP win big victories. We've seen them hold substantial majorities in both houses. The GOP consultant class told us to support mediocre GOP candidates because if the Dems got in....well the Dems didn't get in and everything the GOP consultant class warned about happened anyway. So no, no RINOs. 

Related...so this month Trump knocked off 5 RINO Indiana state senators, RINO senator Bill Cassidy, whack job Thomas Massie, and now RINO John Cornyn. No, this blog is not sick of winning. 

Hot Air tells the story of Trump super-fan Kerry Sheron, beaten to death by his neighbor because he decorated his house with Trump flags and signs. Yeah...we flew a Trump flag all through 2020. No more. And since 10/7 we don't dare fly an Israeli flag. We still wear Israeli flag T-shirts to the gym though. 

Gonna be a Messy Week

Good morning, reader(s) of Stroock's Books, whoever you are, and happy Tuesday. 

Our sojourn across the Hudson River went fine yesterday. After lunch we stopped by the cemetery to commune with relatives. 

Afterwords we fixed our lawnmower (the push bar assembly needed four new screws) and mowed the lawn in the most patriotic and observant way possible. 

We're back to posting on Substack. Meh, it's a habit, and good place to vent.

The New York Knicks are in the NBA finals. We've never been much of an NBA fan. We yawn appropriately. 

War of the ants...not much activity, though we spotted some little ones on the windowsill last night. 

Health update...so we have a colonoscopy/endoscopy on Thursday. Prep begins tomorrow. We're that age, obviously. But this test was triggered by some blood work results. We're trying not to be pissed off about this [Why would you be pissed off about this?-Ed] Dunno. Wish us luck. 

Via Hotair (where else?) we should eschew doomerism. Recall that the Gaza deal turned out to be pretty good. And Trump 45 walked way from bad deals with North Korea and China. This blog remains cautious and circumspect. 

DOGE report. 

We haven't heard back on either of our Pershing article queries and classifying them as busts. 

We are not ready to pick up World War 1990: Thatcher's War. We'll tweak The Managua Campaign. One more week? 

We'll also be working on our British Army of the Rhine story this week. 

Memorial Day Monday

Good morning, Stroock's Books congregants and Happy Memorial Day. If you don't hear The Longest Day theme in your head and see that upturned helmet on the beach in your mind's eye right now, well, there's something wrong.  

We barbequed last night, most patriotically so. 

We'll be making a sojourn across the dread Hudson River today. 

We see no new headlines on Iran negotiations this morning. This from Trump is good. This is also good and here's a late summary. 

We're reminded of the Gaza negotiations, in which Israel got just about everything it wanted and the only bitter pill was prisoner release, which is Israel's own damn fault. 

We find the above terms acceptable and a far cry from the doomer gloom we were reading on Saturday. No, these terms are not perfect, but they are good enough. We're in 'are you such a loser that you don't know you've won?' territory.

Question for our fellow hawks? Does the proposed bridge and powerplant campaign make any sense? We don't think so. What's left to bomb, exactly?

It seems Iran pushed Trump for a maximalist deal and Trump said 'your fired'. Now Trump is pushing the Iranians. Bismarck said that in any negotiation there's a horse and a rider. Right now, Trump's the rider. We're paying an extra dollar and a half for gas. There economy is shutdown. See 'leverage' in your diplomacy handbook. We remain circumspect, cautious even. 

That's a lot more then we meant to write on that. 

DOGE report. 

We began work on the BAOR chapter in the 5th nuke novel. The grognard is hard at work, gathering much needed info as only he can. He's pestering us this very moment; FB messenger keeps dinging. 

We also wrote the rough draft of a short personal piece we pitched to a Substack guy. 

Will's Good Idea for the Week of 5/24/26

Good rainy morning, Stroock's Books Christian readers, except you C of E types [Hey!-Ed], and happy Sunday. 

We had lots of rain yesterday and will have lots of rain today. Which is fine. 

We ordered Thai food last night. 

We followed negotiations and saw terms that we thought amounted to signing away victory. We also saw terms we can live with.  We awoke this morning expecting to see an Iran deal had been done. An Iran deal has not been done. This blog awaits events. 

We hope for success. In truth, we're kinda sick of the whole the war. The war, by which we mean the war that began on 10/7, has taken up a lot of mental and emotional space, understandably. 

This seems meh either way. 

One final thought on all this diplomatic rigamarole, Trump does enjoy a big show, doesn't he? 

Moving on....

Will's Good Idea for the Week of 5/24/26...

Still no reply to our two Pershing article queries [You expected to hear back on the weekend? -Ed]. You never know. 

We're gonna stop posting on Substack for a while. We're not getting anything out of it. 

So far, we've not thought of a way to break the World War 1990: Thatcher's War deadlock. 

World War 1990: The Managua Campaign, has about run out of steam, for now. 

We've a pretty good idea of what goes on at one of those DEW Line stations. Ten or 12 guys, as many as 40 during the summer construction and maintenance months, watching radar consoles and maintaining equipment. Okay, so in our story at CAM-1 Aux Site on Jenny Lind Island, what actually happens? 

We also had an idea for a story in which someone [Who?-Ed] is waiting by the radio [Where?-Ed] to hear the president address the nation. The president finally does so, it changes everything this person thinks about what's happening [Why?-Ed].  

Saturday Updates

Good morning, Stroock's Books weekenders and Happy Saturday. 

We got in a Judaism last night. Mrs. Stroock + Middle and Youngest Daughter led services. Oldest Daughter had a very important social engagement. 

It's gonna rain today, all day. Which is fine. 

Sigh...Memorial Day Weekend. This is always an awkward time for us, as we've spent much of our life memorializing American soldiers, sailors, airmen, and marines. We've written about them all, Continentals, Billy Yanks (and Johnny Rebs), Doughboys, GIs...

The things.

A long week, a week in which we worried ourselves over affairs we can't control [You've been doing that since October 7th-Ed].

Our Pershing and the AEF article queries have borne no fruit, so far. 

We spent all week improving the Battle of Choluteca Gap chapter. The chapter is much better. World War 1990: The Managua Campaign is 52,000 words. 

We did some research on the DEW Line and CAM-1 station for the 5th nuke novel. CAM-1 is on Jenny Lind Island way up in the Canadian arctic. We chose it because Dangerous Waters jet skied to the island and actually visited CAM-1's automated replacement. Authorities were not pleased. Anyway, we've got a feel for the site. It's a bunch of guys in trailers operating electronics, but what actually happens?