The NDP Divorce
Yesterday, New Democratic Party (NDP) leader Jagmeet Singh announced that the NDP was terminating the “supply and confidence agreement” that the NDP has with the Liberal Party. What does this mean?
First, a bit of background on the Canadian Parliament. There are three major political parties in Canada, the Conservatives (central to right), the Liberals (central to left, leaning more left now) and the NDP (very left). There is also the Bloc Quebecois, which only runs candidates in the province of Quebec. In the last election (2021) Trudeau and the Liberals won a minority government. What is this? It is when one party wins the most seats (think Congressional Districts) but not 50% +1 of those seats. This meant that the Liberals formed the government but could at any time lose a confidence vote and that would lead to a new election.
In May 2022, Trudeau and the Liberals entered into an agreement with the NDP for the NDP to support the Liberals in exchange for some minor concessions. The agreement was to run until October 2025. Since then, Singh and the NDP have continued to criticize the Liberals publicly while voting with them in Parliament. As of yesterday, the NDP has terminated this agreement.
Why? There are probably several reasons. First, the two major rail lines in Canada went on strike for a day or so, and the Liberal government ordered them to binding arbitration. The NDP views this as a betrayal of their Union supporters. (For the record, the NDP doesn’t really support Unions unless they support left wing causes). Second the Liberals are far behind in the polls. The latest ones having the Conservatives 20 points ahead of the Liberals across the county.
As an offshoot of this, there was a byelection in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul in June. Byelections occur when the Member of Parliament elected dies, resigns or is appointed to another position (such as the Senate – Canadian Senators are appointed by the Prime Minister). Toronto St-Paul is a metro Toronto riding that has consistently elected Liberals since 1993 and in the last election the Liberals won the riding by 10 points. In June of 2024, the Liberals lost the riding to the Conservatives. This is considered a huge loss for the Liberals since Trudeau and a number of cabinet members travelled to the riding to campaign for the Liberal candidate. It is also significant as in May of 2024 a Canadian polling firm predicted that the Conservatives would win somewhere in the vicinity of 220 seats (out of 338) but thought that the Liberals would hold the Toronto-St. Paul riding. So, clearly the Liberals are performing extremely badly even in areas they would consider to be safe. This is the equivalent of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez losing her Congressional seat to a Republican.
Furthermore, in the last week Trudeau was confronted by a steelworker at Algoma Steel in Sault Ste Marie, Ontario in a clip that has gone viral. It is unclear the exact identity of the steelworker, but his comments to Trudeau show that Trudeau does not have the support of many in Canada. The media here is, of course, fact checking the steelworker’s statements, but not Trudeau’s.
There is another reason that most in Canada aren’t really talking about. The latest polling has the NDP losing support….to the Conservatives. In Canada, this is considered to be impossible. If the NDP loses support it is the general consensus that the NDP supporters would switch their votes to the Liberals. NDP supporters switching to the Conservatives is Not Supposed To Happen. So, it is likely that Singh and the NDP believe that aligning themselves with the Liberals is seriously hurting their election chances. So, is Canada heading for a Fall election? At best…..maybe. First, the NDP has said that they will continue to support the Liberals on a case-by-case basis. What does that mean? Nobody really knows. The Conservatives have said that once Parliament is in session that they will call a confidence vote. This is a Parliamentary move that (if it passes) says that the Prime Minister has lost the confidence of the House (Parliament) and an election must be called. The same thing would happen if the Fall budget fails to pass (in Canada, all budget votes are confidence votes – that’s why we don’t have government shutdowns).
What could stop this? A few things. First, Trudeau now needs 14 votes from somewhere to defeat any confidence measures. He could get it from the Bloc Quebecois or the NDP. Or even the Conservatives if he offered something they really wanted. Second (and this may be the real reason the NDP propped up the Liberals for so long) Members of Parliament (MPs) need to be in Parliament a certain length of time to qualify for a pension. It is well known that Singh, and many NDP and Liberal members do not qualify for a pension until February 2025. Money is a big incentive to keep Parliament going. As well, there is a scheduled Byelection for a heavily NDP leaning riding in Manitoba in September that may get them another seat in Parliament.
The last may be the biggest threat. Recently, Macron in France stated that while an opposition party won the election, he won’t appoint a Prime Minister from their party. Could that happen in Canada? In theory, yes. If Trudeau loses a confidence vote he must ask the Governor General (King’s representative) to dissolve Parliament and call an election. What if he doesn’t? He appointed the Governor General and the Governor General may not want to jeopardize his position. The Governor General (GG) may not want to call an election in which it is so clear that the Conservatives will form the next government. Or, the Liberals could quickly appoint a new leader and try another confidence vote stating that the new leader has the confidence of Parliament. Who could the Conservatives turn to in that situation? In practice, no one. If you’re interested in some seriously obscure Canadian Parliamentary procedures, look up the King-Byng affair of 1926. Or, the 2008-2009 Canadian Parliamentary dispute. I don’t think that will happen, but recent events have shown that the possibility is now there.
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