From the Foreign Desk: Sir John A. MacDonald

A Caucus Revolt?

Recently, a second Liberal MP (Member of Parliament) has come forward to say publicly that he believes Justin Trudeau should resign. Canadian media has reported that there is a letter with about 30 signatures of Liberal MPs asking Trudeau to step down, and this letter will be presented to him at the next Liberal Caucus meeting next week. Does this mean Trudeau will resign? Not necessarily.

First of all, 30 MPs out of 150 or so is a fairly small number. They would need to add at least another 20, preferably 50 names before Trudeau would likely step down due to a caucus revolt. What is a caucus revolt? In the Westminster system of government, it is when enough MPs decide that they want rid of the leader, and the leader is compelled to step down. This is how Margaret Thatcher was removed as well as Jean Chretien (Canadian Prime Minister). To make matters worse, four cabinet members recently announced that they will not run for re-election. This is generally considered a sign that those MPs don’t think that the government can win another election.

What happens next? Assuming Trudeau actually does step down (which is not certain at this point) there would be a leadership race. The problem (first one) is that there aren’t any really strong contenders for the Prime Minister’s role in the Liberal party right now. Trudeau has been making sure that any potential replacements don’t get into cabinet. Chrystia Freeland (Deputy Prime Minister) and Mark Carney (former head of the Bank of Canada) have both had their names put forward as potential replacements but don’t have much support. There aren’t too many others at the moment.

So, what would happen if he were to step down? A leadership race would be announced, and that usually takes anywhere from six months to nine months, even if it is quick. It could take longer. Contenders would have to announce their candidacy, sign up new Liberal party members and there would be a convention where the members would vote for a new leader. This would easily go into next year.

Why would this be a problem? As I’ve mentioned before, the Canadian Parliament is a minority at the moment. That means the Liberals have the most seats but not 50% +1. That means the other parties can vote no confidence at any time and an election would have to be called. Ordinarily in Canadian politics there is something of a gentleman’s agreement that no elections are held while a party is choosing a new leader, then a bit of time is given for the new leader to establish themselves. There are two problems with this. One, an election must be called by October 2025, and it is conceivable for a Liberal leadership race to go over that time. Second, in the early 2000s the Conservatives elected a new leader and Jean Chretien (the Prime Minister at the time) called an election early to prevent the new leader from establishing himself. At the time, it was heralded as a brilliant move. Now, it would likely come back and bite the Liberals, as the other parties would not want to give the new Liberal leader time to establish themselves.

What other problems are there? The Liberals are extremely unpopular, and even a new leader would likely not change that calculation. In the next election, absent a miracle, they are likely doomed. Also, as I’ve mentioned before, Trudeau is not a well educated or well-regarded man. So, should he be removed from the leadership position, he will not have a job to go to. He may continue to sit as an MP, assuming he wins his riding in the next election, but that is not certain. The Liberals may want to offer him some kind of golden parachute to get rid of him, but I haven’t heard anything about that. It would have to be something prestigious, like “Canada’s representative to…” something. Probably with the UN.

What other problems are there? Well, a large number of MPs do not qualify for a full pension until February of 2025, which means there are a lot of MPs with a vested interest in keeping the government propped up until then. Coupled with the Liberals losing two byelections in supposedly safe seats (that even pollsters thought they would keep with the Conservatives 20 points ahead) the electoral situation for the Liberals is likely worse than anyone realizes.

In Canada, people want Trudeau gone, and an election called soon. Even absent a Caucus revolt, Trudeau is done.