The new Israeli nuclear calculus.

As Donald Rumsfeld would say there are unknown unknowns in the emerging Middle East. Specifically we do not know exactly where Iran's nuclear program is in its development. Nor do we know what Israel knows, now will we for some time.

In a nuclear standoff or in a cold war with Iran, Israel is actually well positioned. It launch a nuclear attack via land based missiles, aerial bombs, or sub launched missiles. Israel has MAD and second strike capability.

Perhaps the Israelis have already decided they can live with a nuclear Iran. But what if Israel decided it can't live with a nuclear Iran with Hamas in the south and more importantly, Hezbollah and its arsenal of 100,000 missiles in the north?

What if Israel decided it has to eliminate both terrorist groups now or forever? And remember the scorn of the Arab world will be limited. Will Saudi Arabia really condemn Israel when it is destroying Iran's military proxies? The Arab response to last summer's Operation Protective Edge was muted. There is no reason to suppose the Arabs will be more vocal the next time. Israel now has the diplomatic backing to destroy its enemies.

The short term effect of the Vienna agreement may be war in Gaza and Lebanon.