While Hezbollah is deeply submerged in the Syrian quagmire, and despite a substantial interest in avoiding confrontation with Israel, over the past year the organization's leadership has been preparing for the Third Lebanon War as though it will begin tomorrow. This derives mainly from a decision by Nasrallah and members of Iran's Quds Force about a year ago to change the strategy towards Israel.
The article predicts Hezbollah attempts to cross into Israeli territory, a massive Hezbollah missile barrage (they boast an arsenal of 100,000 at least) and well organized Hezbollah meeting Israeli ground forces with anti-tank missiles and RPGs. Also of note is the fact that Hezbollah has been fighting in Lebanon for several years, giving its troops valuable field experience.
This is similar to what I wrote in Israeli Strikes, though I did not have Hezbollah actually try to take Israeli territory. Hezbollah does launch a few sea born terror attacks, just like Hamas did during the Gaza War last year. I too show Hezbollah meeting the IDF with a fusillade of missiles and rockets.
Interestingly, the article claims Hezbollah is not digging tunnels into Israel, or at least the IDF hasn't uncovered any.
Honestly it doesn't take a lot of imagination to figure out Hezbollah's game plan.
Of course there are unknown unknowns.
Sometimes I wonder, or even hope, I guess, that the IDF has read Israel Strikes. Maybe its even become an essential part of their list of recommended reading? Officers all over Israel are even now pouring over Israel Strikes looking for morsels of insight into the next war. Then one night an urgent phone call, 'Mr. Stroock, I' afraid there's a crisis on the border, and high command could use some insights from an outside source. There's a car out front waiting to take you to the airport...'
Maybe I can be the next Donald Kagan?
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