Thoughts on the state of things

A few days ago my friend Ty Bomba (Counterfact, Decision Games) asked for my summation of the brewing conflict in the Middle East and Israel. This is what I told him:

Since the 2006 cock-up Israel has fought and trained against terrorist non-state actors with emphasis on urban warfare, media management, minimizing civilian casualties and relying on technology like Iron Dome, Trophy, this new anti-tunnel gizmo they have, etc. Remember the standing army is 10 brigades, the rest reserves. In 2006, Cast Lead, the Gaza war, its the regular army that goes into enemy territory. The thing that impressed me about the Gaza War was that the Israelis were ready for Hamas dirty tricks, the tunnels, sea borne commandos, etc.

Now, this necessarily has come at the expense of training and prowess in old fashioned stand up warfare. Israeli armor is probably less capable than it was in say 1973 (of course they got their clocks cleaned in the early stages on the Sinai). But honestly, I doubt it makes much difference. That Counterfact article of mine coming out basically morphed into 8000 words on Arabs not being able to fight. With the exception of the Jordanians, Arabs can't fight for a variety of complex reasons. Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah are another matter, as they are motivated in a way no Egyptian soldier ever has. It is impossible to know how badly Hezbollah has been hurt in the Syria debacle, but hurt they have been. Which doesn't change the fact they have an arsenal of 100,000 missiles.

Israel enjoys a staggering technological and competency edge against all its enemies who make up for that with nihilistic savagery. I expect an existential conflict in Lebanon which will result in hundreds if not thousands of Israeli civilian deaths. At some point they may start to ask themselves why they should bother avoiding civilian losses.

Of course the question arises, will the Israelis stand it. Of course they will. Remember, these are Jews. Every Jewish holiday can be summed up thusly, 'They tried to kill us, they failed. Let's eat.' The destruction of the 2nd Temple in 70 AD is living memory. Remember also, if your an 18 year old Israeli, you've lived your entire life under the threat of Hamas and Hezbollah terror. The peace movement in Israeli is as old and musty as they peace movement here, damn hippies.