So, while another war between Israel and Hezbollah may not be inevitable, Hezbollah's growing arsenal, combined with its conviction that fighting Israel is part of its identity and legitimacy, means that outright conflict is a genuine possibility. If it comes, it will be devastating -- especially for the civilians on both sides caught in the middle.
A hundred thousand Hezbollah missiles, one fifty, the author claims. Why not 200,000? Its not so much the number of missiles so much as Hezbollah's ability to keep launching them. They have only so much space, after all. So the hundreds of thousands of missiles wont lead to a deluge of say 10,000 a day, but give Hezbollah the capability to keep launching them indefinitely.
There is also much talk of Hezbollah trying to mount armed incursions into Israel. Its a scary prospect but this would be like trying to invade Texas.
The author casts some doubt about Iran's willingness to support a war with Israel:
Iran is looking to build on the nuclear agreement with the United States and other powers to strengthen its economy and attract foreign investment. And having to rally publicly and loudly to the side of an organization that the Europeans, Americans and Gulf states regard as a terrorist entity wouldn't seem to further Iran's interests.Of course, this relies on what I think is the rational actor fallacy. The great Mark Steyn likes to note that the Cold War never got hot because we were dealing with the relativity sane men of the Politburo. Iran is run by an apocalyptic Death Cult who think its their job to bring about the 12th Imam via nuclear fire. Maybe I'm just a pessimist.
To date Israel Strikes is my most successful book. At the time (2011-2012) I felt I was in a race to get it published before the real thing happened. Israel Strikes was written in the post 2006 war, rather than the pre 2016 war period. Is that a prediction? Not really. But Islam does love ten year truces.
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