China under Pressure

Sometimes one's work is rejected by one's boss. This is one of those times. That's the gig.

Here's the piece, turned into a lengthy post and submitted for your approval:

In the 1990’s, Western elites widely assumed history had ended, in the words of Francis Fukayama, and the nations of the world would gradually integrate into a web of binding international institutions like the United Nations, the World Trade Organization, the European Union, even the Olympics Games. It was hoped former enemies like Russia and China would join this ‘community of nations’. Even after the Tiananmen Square Massacre, Globalists like Bill Clinton and Tony Blair believed bringing China into the WTO and awarding Beijing the Olympic games would gradually Westernize the nation. Some joked that Democratic Hong Kong had annexed China after the British withdrew in 1997.

China has acquired many of the trappings of Western social democracy. It has a diverse and competitive economy, a large middle class and an elite caste of technocrats running China. These ae the so called ‘Princelings’, the sons and daughters of communist party members, generals, and, now ironically, wealthy entrepreneurs. President Xi himself is a Princeling. His father was a career communist apparatchik and member of the Chinese Politburo. Educated in the finest schools and trained to rule, these Princelings are indistinguishable from and comfortable amongst the global elites.

But China hasn’t gradually liberalized, it has remained an authoritarian state. When Tibetan monks protested the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games, the state brutally cracked down on them, a public relations disaster that saw Chinese police beating Buddhist monks in the streets. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, herself born in the communist east and a product of Globalization, boycotted the Beijing games. This was no anomaly. For years, Beijing’s appointed Hong Kong authorities imprisoned democracy protestors. When Chief Executive Carrie Lam proposed a law allowing the extradition of Hong Kong citizens to China proper, the city exploded. Millions took to the streets in mass protests which overwhelmed the Hong Kong police. In Western China’s Xinjiang province, Beijing wages war against the Muslim Uighurs. The regime has herded a million Uighurs into communist style reeducation camps, often forces Muslims to drink alcohol and consume pork, and bans open displays of Islam on the streets. These are not the actions of a modern, internationalist state; they are a crime against humanity. Thanks to these heavy-handed gestures, China has become an international human rights pariah.

        At the same time, China has become a global power, near rival to and huge trading partner of the United States. America annually imports more than $400 billion in Chinese goods. But cheap Chinese products and labor cost American jobs and damaged American firms. Worse, for decades, China has engaged in economic espionage and stolen American intellectual property costing American firms hundreds of billions of dollars every year. China seems less an economic partner to America and more a rival. China has made massive economic strides at America’s expense.  Unfair economic practices have produced a tremendous backlash.

China’s one-sided trade policies with the United States left it vulnerable to American retaliation. President Trump has exploited Chinese vulnerability ruthlessly and brilliantly. By raising tariffs on Chinese goods, Trump forced Xi to agree to open up Chinese markets to American imports and purchase $200 billion in agricultural and manufacturing goods. Trump merely had to cancel further tariff increases in exchange. And that was only phase one of the negotiations. Phase two will surely see Xi make difficult concessions on intellectual property theft, fentanyl production, and long-term market openness, likely in exchange for a few face-saving measures on Trump’s part. The days of Chinese exploitation of the American economy are over.

Under Xi Jinping, China has aggressively pursued its interests in the South China Sea. China has laid claim to the resource rich Spratly Islands and built artificial islands there for military purposes. The United States challenges China’s claim to the islands as does Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Japan. The United States Navy sends ships into the South China Sea to maintain freedom of navigation. China’s bellicosity is pushing together the nations of the west Pacific Rim and helped re-elect the anti-Beijing president of Taiwan, Tsai-Ing.

Each aggressive move taken by President Xi has, in the long run, weakened China. Now Xi and the Chinese elite face a new crisis, the deadly Coronavirus outbreak. This is a test for the Chinese State. Can Chinese authorities contain the outbreak? That will be difficult to know because China is a secretive, authoritarian state. Xi has no reason to tell the truth about the state’s handling of the outbreak. In fact, he was every reason to hide the truth, because if the government has badly bungled the crisis, China will be further weakened, on Xi’s watch. Given the drubbing he’s taken lately, he could use a win.