Monday, March 2, 2020

Will Nukes America

So, we know a hell of a lot about American agriculture in the 1970s then we ever thought we would know. 

In 1972 there were 2.23 million farms in America, these produced 40 + billion bushels of wheat. Each farm worker produced enough food to feed 41 people per year, up from 12 per year in 1950. American agriculture was becoming more productive.

According to the State of Kansas farm bureau a bushel of wheat can make 14 pounds of flower and 70 loaves of bread.

In 1975 the United States government had 19 million bushels of wheat on hand. Note this number does not include other foods like corn, soybeans, etc. We haven't quite worked out how many people that would feed. In 1970 the Feds had more than 200 million bushels on hand. The world had a horrible harvest in 1972 and made up the difference by buying American wheat. Ironically the 4th largest buyer was the Soviet Union. The number one buyer was Japan. Between shortages and inflation the price of a bushel more than tripled between 1970 and 1975.

American agriculture accounted for about 5% of the nation's petroleum usage. A senate report from 1985 estimated that a full on nuclear strike that destroyed the nation's top 250 cities (a rough equivalent of what we're doing here) would destroy about two-thirds of the nation's petroleum refining capacity. Assuming the Feds could get the gas to where it needed to be, and this would be a top priority, farms could be as productive as before. The report also estimated that even with missile fields in states like Missouri, North Dakota, Nebraska, etc, only about 10% of America's farming capacity would be destroyed. Remember that the United States to this day pays farmers to let millions of acres like fallow.

Two other factors are important here. Farms would have a huge labor surplus and millions upon millions of refugees fleeing urban areas are going to have to find something to do. Also, there's about fifty million fewer mouths to feed.

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