In Canada, it is traditional that at the end of the year, the Prime Minister gives interviews to various news organizations for an “end of the year review”. Like all years Trudeau gave interviews and said something significant. Despite low polling numbers and a large section of Canadians feeling he should leave; he has said that he won’t resign.
This could mean a few things. First, he plans to resign early or mid 2024. Politically, this would be the smart move. A new leader would take over for the Liberals and lead them to massive defeat in the next election. Trudeau could then claim that his policies were supported by Canadians, but his replacement was not supported. This is something of a tradition in Canadian politics. Trudeau Senior did it to John Turner. Brian Mulroney did it to Kim Campbell and Jean Chretien did it to Paul Martin.
However, as I’ve said before, Justin Trudeau does not have much of a future outside of Canadian politics. As a result, I don’t think his ego would allow him to go this route. His seat in Montreal may be secure, but then again, it might not be. There are very few jobs waiting for him outside of government, which was not the situation for his Pierre Trudeau, Brian Mulroney or Jean Chretien. All were able to find jobs with prestigious law firms.
This leaves the second possibility. His caucus, looking at his low poll numbers votes him out. This is possible, at least in the Canadian political arena. Think of a US Speaker being kicked out. It’s largely unprecedented and still leaves the Liberals in the situation that they are in now. Facing likely defeat in the next election.
What are the other possibilities? Third, Trudeau could try and simply screw things up for anyone coming after him. How? By instituting ranked ballots or proportional representation. This was something that he promised when first elected in 2015, but even a cursory examination of these ideas shows that it would likely lead to political chaos in Canada. Which is why he might do it. As long as those ideas might lead to perpetual Liberal governments, he was in favour of them. Once it was clear that it would not he dropped the idea.
This leaves the last, and I think the most likely, possibility. He will pull a Kathleen Wynne. (WHO??) Kathleen Wynne was the Liberal Premier of Ontario from 2013 to 2018. She was also the first openly gay Premier in Canadian history. This meant that any criticism of her was immediately labelled “homophobic” and “unacceptable” (Huh. Where have I heard that before?). Oddly, or perhaps not so much, she had exceedingly low poll numbers and was considered outside of the media to be deeply unpopular. What was her reaction to this? Mostly labelling her critics as anti-gay, outside of the mainstream, etc. And she stayed in office until the last possible day before she had to call an election. Once it was called, the Liberal party in Ontario was destroyed, holding only 7 seats out of a possible 124 in the 2018 election. Doug Ford took over and it is unlikely the Liberals will win the provincial election for the foreseeable future.
And I think this is what Justin Trudeau will do. He will hold onto power as long as he possibly can, double down on the most destructive policies (such as the carbon tax) and be utterly destroyed in the next election. When will that be? Well, his agreement with the NDP theoretically goes until 2025. He can still cause a lot of damage between now and then. The NDP has shown no signs of wanting to end this agreement but have said that they have ruled it out for the next Parliament (after the next election). Unless the NDP decide that they are in a good position to win more seats (they’re even less popular than the Liberals) do not expect a turnaround election in Canada in 2024. I think that this time next year Trudeau is hoping for lots of media stories about how he has turned his fortunes around. But I don’t think that will happen.
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