Polled Day Three: Polled

Good morning from the pastoral splendor of the Berkshires. Right now the temperature is 59 degrees. We had a decent enough day yesterday. Lunch in town at a Jewish owned restaurant that was protested by Hamas supporters this spring, some time on the water, and then a visit from a cousin who is named for the woman that decorated the very house in which we sit. Oh, and we ended the day by finding a rather large frog in the basement, 'Daaaad!' That sort of thing happens up here. 

Pollsters have models. Those models try to predict what the electorate will look like on election day. That electorate will be roughly 1/3rd Dem, 1/3rd GOP, 1/3rd Indy. But the devil lies in the details, as they say. Someone will get lucky and nail the ratios exactly. Someone will be wildly off. Rasmussen, for example, uses a D+2 model. The NYTs assumes D+6. This is why we've been saying who one thinks is ahead depends on which pollsters one wants to believe. 

In 2012 we discovered, quite accidently, a dirty little secret no pollster wants to divulge. The pollsters all poll the same people. We know this because they all polled us. Name a major polling outfit. CNN, Rasmusen, Sienna...they polled us. Why? Because word got out that the weirdo at (908) - ***-**** would sit on the phone with a stranger for 15 minutes and answer his questions. Normies hang up. We didn't. 

The pollster already chose the interviewer based on location. 'We need someone in northern New Jersey.' At least half of a poll interview gathers demographic data; age, race, income, education etc etc.  Sometimes we gave the pollster bad info. Sometimes we lied on just a few items like age or race. Sometimes we gave deliberately contradictory answers that made no sense. We once claimed to be a REDACTED with a REDACTED voting for Romney.  

So the Biden Regime just approved $18 billion in arms sales to the Israelis. My, Bibi does extract a high price for returning to the negotiating table, does he not? Another night without an Iranian attack. We don't mean to underestimate the Persian, but he's being very indecisive. He's also trying to leverage a potential attack into a ceasefire deal that saves Hamas. Here's why: The IDF's Boon on Hamas' Throat. Do read the whole thing.  Israel Radar thinks Iran strikes in the next day. Israel has been saying publicly and through back channels, 'Don't'.