Who's Winning What?

Good morning, Stroock's Books. We awake tired and sore, which is a sure sign that it's time to head home, which we will be doing this afternoon. As we write this the temp is 65 degrees. The lake is like glass with just a bit of mist rising. A paddleboarder is out there. We have canoes, kayaks and a rowboat the same age as we. We don't get the point of paddleboarding. Why stand when you can sit?

Indirect, it seems, talks between Israel and Hamas are ongoing in Doha. Many analysts think this is the last chance for a hostage deal and that Hamas is trying to trigger a regional war. Whatever Hamas' strategic objective was on 10/7, they haven't achieved it. After 51 years we've had our fill of arguing, 'Why don't they just blow up the bastards' but sometimes...

Speaking of... Israel began the day with strikes on dozens of Hamas targets. The IDF has issued evacuation orders in the Qana region of Gaza. These are little reminders from Netanyahu that Israel is dictating the course of events. 

Iran has been threatening to retaliate against Israel for two weeks now. The Persian's rhetorical bellicoseness has reached Arab levels. Remember, the more bellicose the Arab's rhetoric, the more impotent he is. Are we underestimating the Persian? Perhaps. But Iran clearly has no idea what to do right now. 

Israel is winning the war.*

So during the fateful election of 2004, we noticed something about polls, the news, and the narrative. Different pollsters use different models, which explains different results. But the polls will conform to a narrative. In 2004 that narrative was usually 'Bush surging', 'Kerry comeback' or some such. If the news was in the 'Bush surging' narrative cycle, polls would show Bush tied with Kerry, somewhat ahead, or way ahead. The numbers just depended on the model. Of course the reverse was true for the 'Kerry comeback' Narrative. 

To state the above another way, a new poll showing your candidate down only one point while other polls show your candidate down several points does you no good. Your candidate is still down. We saw a pollster argue that a bunch of polls showing a candidate ahead but within the margin of error means the race is tied. We disagree. A bunch of polls showing a candidate ahead 1-2 points, within the margin of error, means the candidate is ahead 1-2 points. They're all producing the same result, duh. 

*Heh, we're setting ourselves up for a big, bad shock.