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Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Cometh Forsooth Once More

Election Day Cometh Forsooth, Election Day Cometh Forsooth Again, and Election Day Cometh Forsooth Once More. 

We thought about titling this post: Election Day Nerves. 

Here we are, on our second and LAST cup of coffee this morning. To be blunt, we're a little jumpy. At 0742 hours we have no idea how we're getting through today, much less tonight. And BTW, we may not even know the winner tonight. Gee, wonder why?

What can we say? For every modeler saying Trump's gonna win, there's a modeler saying Kamala's gonna win. Atlas, Emerson, Echelon, and intriguingly DDHQ have Trump ahead. NYT/Sienna, Cook Political Report say Kamala's in the lead. The RCP average is even but slightly red. Someone's gonna be wrong. The early vote is 49-46 for Kamala. The GOP early vote is way up from 2020. Assuming they haven't cannibalized the ED vote, GOP is going to kill it on election day. And that should be more than enough. Exit question: have pollsters figured out how to poll Trump voters?

We have lots more to say on what's happened, what we think is happening and what we think is going to happen. But guess what, we don't wanna risk having to write the meaculpa/oops post. So that will wait till things are over. And gee again, how long will that take? We'll say this, if Kamala wins it'll be because they turned out every last elite white, white woman, and anti-Trump GOP. 

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