Various and Monday Metal (Supplemental or is that Supplemetal?)

Well, we got a chapter with some guv'ment types talking and a few disassociated farm scenes. We think we need more farm scenes no? Both actually bring back one off characters seen in 75. This morning we're feeling kinda meh about the chapter. The big issue at the end of 76 is holding elections and the harvest which will be greatly diminished.

We need to:

-Sprinkle some more congressional references in the MS

-Write George Steinbrenner onto the President's Select Committee on Reconstruction. Maybe he's in charge of election planning? Wait a minute, the man owned American Ship Building Company....

-Write Ulan Ide scenes. What's UI's arc? What's happening in the USSR?

-Finish up Matt (change name to Brian?)

-Finish final chapter. Right now it's Rocky's inauguration at the Greenbrier...Yeah, I know.

In the most triumphant way possible we have returned to Substack. Here's our write-up on Guardian of the Walls: 'Operation Guardian of the Walls pitted Hamas’ rocket arsenal and terror capability vs. Israel’s Iron Dome and the IDF’s ability to inflict pain upon Hamas. On purely military terms, Israel won the conflict.'

In Israel, Avigdor Lieberman has agreed to bring his seven seats to Lapid's Change Coalition. His is the Judea/Samaria Party. Right now Lieberman is pissed because Bibi didn't carry out a no two stones policy in Gaza. Russian Jew, of course. There's a million Russian Jews in Israel. They may be Jews but they are still Russian. Which means they look at a problem like Gaza and think, 'Why not just crush Gaza beneath tread of tank and then open bottle of vodka we had saved for New Year's Grandfather Frost celebration.' One step closer, but a ways to go. 

FB reminded us that Van Halen's OU812 came out 33 years ago yesterday. Ahhhh the spring of '88. We were in 8th grade. We were in love with our girlfriend, Kirsten. It was sweet, and intense and still feels special all these years later. Here's, for our money, the best song off OU812:

There's the typically good riff from Eddie and  an interesting solo. As always, that harmonizing. Without Michael Anthony's voice there was no Van Halen. Harder the better. Oh:

Liberman and...the Arabs?

It looks like they might finally have found a way to drive ol Bibi down

Avigdor Liberman will join Gantz and the Blue and Whites provided they agree to certain secularist demands, like bus services on the Sabbath. The Arab Joint List may also join the Blue and Whites, provided they get a few goodies, like repeal of the Nation State Law*. Of course Liberman and the Joint List both hate one another, but they also hate the Haredi and Bibi.

Bibi's corruption trial begins on the 17th. 

*Says obvious, Israel is Jewish.

Oh no, not again

We haven't written much about Israel's Year of the Election because frankly we're bored to death by it.

Bibi has failed to form a government and returned the mandate to President Rivlin, whose asked Ganz and the Blue and Whites to try.

Here's a summation of where things are and where they might be heading.

In theory Liberman and Israel Bitenyu could join the Arab Joint List in a coalition with the Blue and Whites. Stranger things have happened. But we dunno, man. You're talking about a million Russian Jews who want to stomp Gaza flat and would be perfectly happy to expel Arabs from Israel. That's a hell of a tough sell.

Polls show the nation is sick of Netanyahu. Even we're a bit weary. Our sense is Bibi's finished. 

Third election? Come on, God, we went to services for Rosh Hashanah, Yom Kippur and Sukhot. Don't do this to us. 

Lords of Kobol? Crom? The Many Faced God...is there anybody out there? Anybody at all?

Bibi for the Win? Or is it a Trap?

Looks like Bibi is going to get first crack at forming a government.

If one includes Avigdor Liberman's Yisrael Bitenyu, the right-bloc has 64 seats or so.

We just don't see how Ganz forms a government, unless he convinces Likud to dump Bibi. Whose willing to stab him in the back and what would be the price of failure? Yikes.

Netanyahu really does have the best chance. Labour has already rebuffed him, even after he offered them the finance portfolio. It's so personal with them. Also with Liberman. Bibi has that effect on people. We know folks at our own synagogue who loath the man.

But they say in this case the leader who goes first has the worst chance to form a government. So who knows.

What a mess, and we can blame Bibi's tactics and rhetoric for making it so.

We miss Arial Sharon*. Can they tap zombie Arial Sharon to form a government?

*Greatest Jew since Moses, or Charleton Heston, anyway.

Bibi: Unity, or It's me or the Arabs

Bibi's got all the right parties locked up and acting as a block of 55 seats. Today, in a speech commemorating Shimon Peres* he called for a Unity Government with Ganz and the Blue and Whites. This is adept as Peres** sat in a Unity Government with Likud. That government had a rotating premiership. This blog will believe it when this blog sees it.

Bibi's doing everything he can to convince Liberman and Yisrael Bitenyu that's he's trying real hard. This is also the kind of post-partisan unity crap that president Rivlin, who loathes Bibi, likes to hear. Bibi has also said that Israel has two choices, a Zionist government under his leadership, or a dangerous government with the Arab Joint-List.

Remember, this is about Liberman, the secular-nationalist, who has two policy goals: sock it the palestinians, and sock it to the Haredi. Liberman is in complete agreement with this blog.

*Vichy
**Quisling

Liberman King of the Jews

As of this writing Avigdor Liberman is the kingmaker of Israel.

With 90% of the vote counted Ganz's Blue and Whites have 32 seats, Likud 31, with neither the left or right bloc getting to 61 seats without Liberman.

Liberman is calling for a unity government, but without the Arab Joint-List, which rules out the Blue and Whites forming a government. Right now he's demanding a Haredi draft law and public transport operating on Shabbat.

We suppose Bibi could pull off the public transport bill and keep his coalition. The draft bill though...no way.

Liberman, you magnificent bastard!

Israeli Election Poll Finale

Jeremy's Knesset Insider has the final polls for Israel's election Tuesday. According to the average, Likud wins 33 seats, the Blue and Whites 32. The big winner may be Avigdor Liberman and Israel Betinyu with 8 seats. That would make him king maker. With Liberman the left block could theoretically form a coalition, were they to invite the Arab parties into the government. 

To chip away at Liberman's support, Bibi has been touting annexation of Judea/Samaria and war with Hamas.

Remember, nobody but Labour (due to get shellacked once more) and Meretz (Quislings) cares about 'peace'. The big issues are security and the religious clash. The Haredi control Israel's religious life but barely work and are exempt from the military. 

Bastards.

Still, we expect Stroock's law about elections to hold, whereby polls underestimate conservative support/turnout by a few points. 

Bibi to Israel: War with Hamas, why not?

The Israeli elections (round-two) are Tuesday.

The polls show the results will be more or less the same as last April, but with Avigdor Liberman and Ysrael Bitenyu making big gains, perhaps going from five to ten seats.

This galls Bibi no end, as Liberman wrecked the collation talks. So this time, it's personal.

Israel Bitenyu is a nationalist party with voters living in Judea/Samaria for the most part.

Which is why Bibi is talking about formal annexation of Israeli towns there and  war with Hamas:

“There probably won’t be a choice but to launch an operation, a war with the terror forces in Gaza,” the prime minister said in a radio interview with the Kan public broadcaster, kicking off a media blitz five days before the national elections. “There probably won’t be a choice but to topple the Hamas regime. Hamas doesn’t exert its sovereignty in the Strip and doesn’t prevent attacks.”

This strikes us as a tad disengenous and phony. Also, might it scare some voters into voting for Ganz and the Blue and Whites?

We'll know Tuesday, won't we?

Wither Arab-Israel?

In Israel Avigdor Lieberman has an interesting peace plan. The Times of Israel reports:

“The conflict is three-dimensional — with the Arab countries, with the Palestinians and Israeli Arabs. And the third conflict, with Israeli Arabs, is the most difficult,” Liberman continued, in comments reported by Zman Yisrael [Hebrew], the Times of Israel’s Hebrew-language sister site, and approved for publication by Liberman though the event was billed as closed to press....His plan calls for towns in the “triangle” region southeast of Haifa, including heavily populated Arab cities, to become part of a Palestinian state in any peace agreement in exchange for Jewish settlement areas of the West Bank coming under Israeli sovereignty.

Both Ehud Barak and Ehud Olmert proposed something similar.

Don't let Arab-Israeli rhetoric fool you. These people don't want to live in a Palestinian state anymore than Israeli-Jews.

Israel is a secular Jewish state, an Orthodox religious state and now an ethno-nationalist state. 

Remember, if you're a young Israeli, and there are two and half million of them 24(!) or younger, you don't remember 'peace'. You remember a never ending succession of terrorist wars and are preparing for the Existential Conflict with Iran-Hezbollah.

Ye to Liberman

Avigdor Liberman has scuppered Bibi's government. The Knesset is dissolved and new elections will take place.

This astute analysis says by insisting on a Haredi draft bill, Liberman has made himself the 'champion of secular Israel'.

Has Liberman actually outmaneuvered the undisputed champion of Israeli politics?

We suppose Liberman can peel off support from the centrist Blue and Whites and from Likudniks who don't like the Haredi.

Will it work?

This blog could support an Israeli nationalist party that wants to stick it to the Haredi.

Your move, Bibi.