No Blue Wave Stream of Consciousness

There is no Blue Wave.

It's not fair to argue that there will be no Blue Wave and not give our final prediction for the election.

Remember Will's election rule trifecta. Circumstances. Ideas. Candidates.

Circumstances: Trump is in the 48-51% range in the Rasmussen, the only poll we trust. The economy is great. ISIS on the run. Peace with North Korea. The big talk is illegal immigration and the Central American Invasion Face.
Ideas: What are the Dems ideas? They hate Trump. That's all they got.
Candidates: Some are good (Robert Francis O'Rourke), more are nuts Krystyn Sinema).

The same people who predict Dems to win the house assured us Hillary! would win.

Conjectures
-Final consensus seems to be that the Dems have a +7 advantage in house preference. Even if we thought this number were true, it's not enough to produce a wave. Much of that is CA, IL, NY padding.
-Several House polls show vulnerable GOPs well ahead.
-In 5 of 6 special House elections the GOP has won.
-The GOP is well ahead of it's previous pace for early/absentee voting in places like AZ, FL, TX.
-The last Dem wave election in 2006 produced 33 house seats. In that year you had good Dem candidates, an unpopular president in his 6th year, an unpopular war, GOP House corruption and a great Dem slogan: Had Enough?
-In 2006 the GOP base was unmotivated.
-Is the GOP base unmotivated today?
-Since 2014 polls have underestimated conservative turnout, not just here, but across the English speaking world.
-There is a big increase in R voter registration in battleground states.
-The GOP can and will flip several House seats.
Will's Final Prediction:
GOP loses 10-15 House seats. Many house seats take weeks to resolve.
GOP wins AZ, FL (just barely), IN, MO, ND, MT, NV, TN, TX senate seats. Loses WV, and NJ (barely after recounts, litigation, etc) Dems get scares in MI and MN.

Blue Wave?

Just go over to Hotair and see their four separate reports on Missouri, Nevada/NJ, Minnesota(!)and the general state of things.

Remember, these are our conservative, Trump-skeptical, inhouse pessimists.

Will is Right and the Egg-Heads are Wrong

Look everywhere and you'll see that the polls are catching up to Will.

There will be no Blue Wave.

In a few days we're going to stop writing about this, partly becuase we're sick of it, and partly becuase we don't wanna get burned on election night, even though there will be no Blue Wave.

So we thought we'd talk about how we arrived at this conclusion.

Recall that we predicted Mr. Trump would win. We'll go through that methodology.

First of all we didn't and don't trust 'data'. This is just baseball eggheads crunching numbers and playing around with turnout models. They actually cooked up a poll that showed Robert Francis O'Rourke beating Ted Cruz, that's if one assume there were more Dems than GOPs....in Texas.

So why were we right about Trump and everyone else wrong?

We didn't rely on data.

We relied on history.

Also our lyin' eyes.

These were the facts:
-After 8 years a lot of people just want another party in power.
-Even in good times it's hard to replace the sitting president in your own party.
-Just ask Richard Nixon and Algore.
-Trump's rally's were like rock concerts.
-Hillary's rallies were like talks by the chairmen of the local osteoporosis support group.
-We saw people who never cared about politics wearing Trump hats.
-The press and pollsters consistently under-estimate conservative turnout.
-Elections are about ideas, candidates and circumstances. Hillary! had none of these in her favor.
-Every candidate has a year. 2008 was the year of Hillary! and she blew it.

And that's why she lost. Also she's a sickly, syphilis ridden, high-functioning alcoholic, corrupt kleptocrat, and all around horrible human being.

Tomorrow we'll go over why we say there will be no blue wave.

Wave?

The GOP leadership insists the Kavanaugh Nomination fight has given the party the shot in the arm it needed going into the mid-terms.

We've insisted for months that no such shot was needed.

We've really been arguing all these months that everyone is off a tick or so.

One of us is wrong.

As of right now the polls have caught up to where we were arguing the electorate already was, a slight Dem advantage, not enough to tip the House to them. At this point there is no denying what the polls are showing. 

We've argued for months that there will be no Blue Wave. Given these polls intellectual honesty requires us to argue that there will now be a Red Wave, no?

Conjectures:
-People are now openly declaring their GOP allegiances where they weren't before.
-Independents have swung massively to the GOP in disgust at what the Dems have done.
-GOPs are now super-hyper motivated.
-We were wrong the whole time.

The Wave

Hotair notices what we've noticed. Quoth the headline: New generic ballot polling: Midterms shaping up to be either catastrophic for the GOP or … possibly not too bad!

It really comes down to your world view. Either Trump is a fearful* mess, or he is the successful MAGA president.

Look around. What are the circumstances?  We have great economic news, foreign policy successes...

*See what I did there?

Dem's+ 14?

Via Instapundit:

One of these is wrong.

That ABC/WaPo poll claims the country prefers Dems 52-38. 

Does anyone really believe that after the last few months?

The Dems are popular enough in California, Illinois and New York to be 2-5 points ahead. 

Everyone else thinks their crazy. 

So that's ABC/WaPo poll. 

See 'outlier' in your polling dictionary.

Blue Wave Polls

The good lawyers at Powerline are confused and we don't blame them.

The esteemed John Hinderaker wants to know how voters can reject socialism by over 70% and 56% think the Dems are 'out of their goddamn minds',* but prefer the Dems by 13% on the Congressional Ballot.

The answer is they can't.

One of those numbers is wrong. Both Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato favor the Dems to win the House. I say they will not.

Both Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato told you Trump couldn't win. I said Trump would win. Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato were wrong. I was right.

Today Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato are wrong, and I am right.

Mr. Hinderaker quite sensibly concludes:

My guess is that the polls are missing major currents that will become clear, as in 2016, only after the votes are counted. What those currents will turn out to be, no one really knows. I will say this, however: a large majority of voters disapprove of Democrats trying to murder Republican Congressmen while they are playing baseball, beating up Republicans in the street, hounding Republicans when they go out to dinner with their families, busing in “protesters” to make noise outside Republicans’ houses, and threatening violence against Republicans’ children. If the Democrats do poorly in November, I expect it will be less due to their theoretical embrace of socialism than to their inability to behave normally as citizens of a republic.

Mr. Hinderaker is too kind. The Dems are freakin' nuts and everyone can see that. Which is why there will be no Blue Wave.

*It's possible that I made up that quote.

There will be no Blue Wave

The intrepid lawyers at Powerline and Legal Insurrection  dive into the coming 'Blue Wave' and come up skeptical. Both quote Roger Kimball who writes sensibly in Spectator USA:

Sure, it is possible that the Republicans will lose a few House seats. But Trump’s increasingly broad-based support and the astonishing success of his agenda make it just as likely that the Republicans will gain a few seats.

Earlier Kimball makes note of Barrack Hussein Obama's massive 63 seat loss in 2010.

Let us also recall W's 32 seat loss in 2006 and Clinton's 54 seat loss in 1994.

Remember all three presidents got shellacked becuase of major legislative calamities, unpopular policies, wars, etc...

Trump is popular. Trump's policies are popular. The Democrat Party is running against Trump's popular policies.

Ergo? IE? IG? I don't give a fuck, there will be no Blue Wave.

There will be no Blue Wave?

Item: In Wisconsin the Democrat candidate for an open judgeship romped.

[Yeah, but both Barry and Biden campaigned for her, and there are tons of old-time progs in Wisconsin-Ed]

Item: Polls in the Mississippi race to replace Senator Thad Cochrane show the Democrat candidate ahead.

[Yeah, but the internals all look good for the GOP candidate-Ed]

Item: In Tennessee a new poll shows Bredesen beating Blackburn 45-35. This is the third poll that shows he's ahead.

[Yeah, but he's nowhere near 50 in any one of them and he's a Blue Dog known statewide-Ed]

Ok, Ed, ok. All good points and we agree.

Still, we're needing an awful lot of excuses, aren't we?

There will be no Blue Wave

The guys at Powerline made a great point about midterm elections a month ago maybe. In order for a wipeout to occur you have to have some really unpopular things happen.

Let's look at 1994.  Clinton was dealing with the Healthcare debacle and the Crime Bill which he rammed though via old fashioned horse tading. Neither was popular. Dems were unmotivated. GOPs were highly motivated. The GOP picked up 54 seats.

Let's look at 2010. A bad economy, the Porkulous, Obamacare and a pissed off GOP-Tea Party. The GOP picked up 63 seats.

Now lets look at the election of 2006. You had an unpopular president in his 6th year, which is a double whammy right there, and goddamn unpopular war. You had massive corruption in the form of Jack Abramov and a congressional sex scandal. The Dems picked up 31 seats.

Look at how many things need to go right for a Dem wave to develop. Even when a Dem wave develops it's literally half as the powerful as a GOP wave. Heck,  in 2000 the Dems only needed 6 seats to swing the house. They even had a newsletter, the 6 Seat Sentinel. Six seats in a year when the late voter swing went toward Algore, and they still couldn't do it.

What's Trump done that's unpopular? The economy is great. He beat Isis' ass. He passed a yuuge tax cut. I bet he will have passed a few more popular items before November. Think Opioids.

Sorry folks, none of Trump's legislation is unpopular. There will be no Blue Wave

The once and future speaker