In Which life Imitates Will's Idea

Oh look, Hezbollah right here in America:

A Morristown man trained by Hezbollah scouted possible targets for terror attacks around the country - including the Statue of Liberty, Port Authority Bus Terminal and area airports - and sent the reports back to the militant group, authorities said Thursday.

Federal prosecutors in New York unveiled a nine-count indictment against Alexei Saab, 42, who they said was trained in weapons and explosives by the Iranian-backed organization. He was arrested in July and remained jailed, according to officials.

Right here in New Jersey! Morristown is about 15 minutes from Casa de Stroock.

Looks like we better get started on America Strikes, becuase this is exactly the kind of thing we had in mind for the domestic terror plot. 

Research in December, write in January.

Israel, Israel, Hezbollah, Hamas

Hamas has been acting up of late, firing rockets at Israel, fomenting riots on the border. Debka reports that Bibi has had enough.

DEBKAfile Exclusive: Israel stands ready for a major war against the Palestinian terrorist organizations of the Gaza Strip. PM/Defense Minister Binyamin Netanyahu relayed this warning to Hamas via the Egyptian intelligence delegation which arrived in the Gaza Strip on Sunday, Sept. Sept. 8 and went into conference with Hamas leader Yahye Sinwar. The message warned Hamas that the escalating attacks on Israel and threats of violence of late had prompted a decision in Jerusalem to opt for a general war as the only way to put a stop to the terror harassment ongoing year after year. This message was Israel’s last warning and final notice to Hamas.

This blog remains skeptical that a general war with Hamas can accomplish anything other than creating and bouncing rubble.

Meanwhile the Times of Israel reports that the IDF is on maneuvers: 

The Israel Defense Forces on Sunday launched a large-scale exercise simulating war against Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian forces in the north of the country. The drill, known in Hebrew as Even HaRosha, or Keystone, will largely be focused on the performance of senior officers and their staffs, rather than on fighting tactics and maneuvers, the army said.

We question the timing. 

As noted previously, we now believe the Israelis have utterly compromised Hezbollah and are capabale of delivering a near knockout blow within a week.

Bibi looks tough on the eve of the election, no?

Israel to Hezbollah: Soon

Rather than blowup the Hezbollah missile factory uncovered in the Beqaa Valley, Israel exposed it to the world. Smart.

This morning Debka reports:

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned Lebanon on Wednesday, Sept. 4, that Israel knows about a second, larger Iranian-Hizballah missile factory and is preparing to bomb it. Pompeo addressed this urgent message directly to Lebanese Foreign Minister Jubran Basil, who is close to Hizballah’s Hassan Nasrallah, instead of through the usual embassy channels. He sent it on the day after the IDF showed reporters detailed evidence of the existence of a factory at Nebi Shait for arming Hizballah’s surface missiles with precision kits.

It sounds like Israel is making the case for war.

If Lebanon won't act then Israel will.

Yesterday we supposed that Israel knows it cannot destroy Iran's nuclear program and will destroy Hezbollah instead. Israel's latest actions show the IDF and Mossad know everything about Hezbollah dispositions in Lebanon, we believe. We might be underestimating them, but still.

Bibi can't risk war with a Democrat in the White House. With Trump in the Oval Office, there will never be a better time to strike Hezbollah.

Israel: It's us or them. We choose them

Israeli activity of late has been unusual and frenetic.

This blog is, quite frankly, stunned at their openness about operations. Also the threat/promise that nations harboring Hezbollah will suffer becuase of it. Just the other day the FM said that Nasrallah will go down in history as the man who destroyed Lebanon.

Remember, Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government.

The existential conflict looms and the Israelis just aren't going to care about houses, schools, mosques, hospitals.

The Lebanese have been warned. 

We've already speculated that the IDF has mapped out every last Hezbollah rocket location in southern Israel and is prepared to unleash an aerial barrage the likes of which we have not seen since the Desert Storm air war.

Supposition: Israel knows it cannot stop Iran from going nuclear, so it will destroy Hezbollah first.

Usually IDF op codenames have a biblical feel, Ten Plagues*, Cast Lead, etc etc. OK, Thunderbolt at Entebbe. For the coming Lebanon War we suggest Operation Curtis Lemay.

*You'll never top that.

Israel to Hezbollah: Let's Rock

As we suspected, the Israelis were ready to rock:

Israel was ready to launch a massive retaliation against Hezbollah’s precision missile system in Lebanon, and only opted against carrying out that plan because no Israeli soldiers were hurt in a Sunday cross-border attack by the terror group, according to a report Monday evening...According to the report, air force jets were flying over the Mediterranean Sea armed with dozens of tons of explosives in preparation for a counter-strike. The source was quoted as saying the warplanes were ready to bomb many targets linked to Hezbollah’s missile production, and were waiting for a green light from Jerusalem.

If the Israelis knew the names and social media habits of the IRGC men operating in Lebanon, what do you suppose they know about Hezbollah's rocket arsenal? 

Raise your hand if you think IDF artillery has already registered Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. 

We're talking about people that walked out of an Iranian nuclear facility with tons of documents. Think the Israelis know exactly which pressure points to hit now?

After all, the Jew is clever.

Israel to Lebanon: Take Action, or Else

Over at the Times of Israel a deep analysis  of the recent flair up between Israel and Hezbollah. We suggest reading the whole thing.

The Israels spent the weekend telling the world that they will hit Hezbollah whenever and wherever they need to. And there's this from the IDF chief of staff:

The state of Lebanon and UNIFIL must bring an end to Iran and Hezbollah’s precision missile project in Lebanon and fully implement [UN] Security Council Resolution 1701,” Kohavi said, referring to the resolution that ended the 2006 Second Lebanon War. “The current state of affairs is not one we can come to terms with,” he said.

This blog doubts either entity is up to the job.

Hezbollah is part of the Lebanese government, so there's no reason to make a distinction between the two as far as the Israelis are concerned. 

Clearly the Israelis believe the situation is approaching critical mass.

This blog believes the Israelis know everything about Hezbollah's missile dispostions, deployments, locations, etc and that in any conflict could deliver a massive blow against their infrastructure in the first few days.

If we know it, then Hezbollah knows it too.

Israel to Hezbollah: Don't

An interesting report from Debka File about Israeli intentions in case of Hezbollah action:

Israel categorically rejected Hizballah’s proposal of a “limited reprisal” to close the books on the IDF’s weekend attacks in Beirut and East Lebanon. The offer, as a formula for averting a general flareup of hostilities, was made during an exchange of back-channel messages on Tuesday, Aug. 27. However, as DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources reveal here, it was flatly rejected by Israel who replied unequivocally that any Hizballah attack on a military or civilian target -“limited” or not – would elicit a crushing Israeli blow against its forces in Lebanon. For added muscle, the Israeli Air Force has been maintaining a round-the-clock presence over Lebanon, ready to strike Hizballah for any aggression without delay.

Remember, Israel launched a massive air and artillery campaign against Hezbollah during the first week of the 2006 war. Had they ended the effort then, the Israelis could have walked away claiming success. 

Given that the Israelis smash everything Hamas every time Hamas attacks, their threat to unleash hell in Lebanon is quite credible.

Exit question: would the Israelis test new gizmos, tactics, etc, or hold them back for the big show?

Follow up: would the Israelis turn this into the big show?

Will's Good Idea for the week of 8-25-19

In America Strikes, Hezbollah or the IRGC establishes bases in northern Mexico from which it flies explosive laden drones into the United States.

Thought of that just now.

Also one or two really big rockets; good morning Phoenix.

Israel Strikes X 10

Debka File reports that the Israelis really whacked Syria the other day:

One of Israel’s largest attacks is reported by Syrian sources to have swept across 10 targets across the country early Monday, July 1. They included Damascus Mezza military airport; Iranian and Hizballah military facilities at Al Kiswa south of Damascus; the base of the Syrian 1st Division; the Syrian military “research” institute at Jumriyah; military facilities at Siniya; and a chain of Hizballah bases in the Qalamoun Mts straddling the Syrian -Lebanese frontier, as well as bases in the Homs district.

Debka says Hezbollah was about to do something.

Indeed the Jew is clever for Syria is riddled with Zionist spies.

We don't know what we don't know, for as it is written, there are unknown unknowns.

In this case the Israelis know quite a lot, enough to bomb ten targets simultaneously. This blog wonders what we don't know about these strikes.

And by the way, just to keep things really interesting, Iran says it will surpass its uranium enrichment limits this week.

With anyluck, American Strikes will be overtaken by events and we won't have to write it.

The other Mexican Threat

Islamic terrorists wear sombreros.

From Counterfact Magazine a chilling report:

The next major terrorist attack in the US is likely to originate in Mexico and strike at a major city in California, Arizona, New Mexico or Texas. It will most likely be conducted by ISIS or Hezbollah fighters, and will be aimed at resulting in something resembling a second 9-11, leaving hundreds or even thousands dead and causing billions in damage

...

Reports from Mexico over the past several years reveal the country’s ungoverned spaces have become base areas for ISIS cells, as well those or Al Qaeda and Hezbollah. All of them share the mission of penetrating the American homeland to conduct terrorist attacks intended to duplicate the impact of 9-11. They are attempting to do so by using the same border tunnels and routes exploited by Mexico’s drug smuggling cartels.

According to a Washington Times report, ISIS has been operating a camp in the northern Mexican state of Chihuahua, just eight miles from the US border, for over four years. Citing sources that included an “Army field grade officer” and a “Federal Police inspector,” the watchdog group Judicial Watch has more recently reported ISIS is organizing a fighting group only a few miles from El Paso, in the Anapra neighborhood of Juarez and in Puerto Palomas.

Hezbollah, eh...

This is great fodder for Will's good idea, American Strikes: The America-Iran War.

Terrorist infiltrators at the border. A border patrol unit ambushed. Then bam! Multiple bombs go off at a Arizona Cardinals game. A shopping mall in Tuscan is shot up...

The damn book writes itself. Which is probably the only way it gets done becuase lord know we don't have the time.

Gideon Prepares to Strike

A very interesting article about the latest Israeli maneuvers involving their entire 36th Armored Division (stationed on the Golan) which includes the vaunted 7th armored brigade.

The Israelis are training to fight on a 'four dimensional battleground' in the air, ground, underground and cyberspace. 

Gideon Battle Groups are key to the new concept. Rather than slimming down, the Israelis are bulking up. Gideon brigades are composed of three infantry, three armored, and one engineering battalion, making them large and not really built for maneuver warfare.

The Times of Israel provides more detail on the new Gideon brigades:

According to the military, this included: a high-powered laser capable of shooting down incoming mortar shells or drones, known as Gideon’s Shield, or Magen Gidon; a “smart” trigger, which only allows a weapon to be fired when it is locked on its target; an improved night vision system; a powerful radar detection system; communication equipment that gives commander access to up-to-date intelligence; and a number of drones and autonomous vehicles.

These are self-contained brigades built for the towns and mountains of southern Lebanon.

As always the messaging is important here. Israel wants Hezbollah to know what it is doing.

Why?

Not Lebanon but Syria?

Devotees know that we feel Israel's existential conflict with Iran lies in Lebanon. As such we've considered Syria a secondary theatre.

Hezbollah's rat-lines run through Syria and the Israelis have spent the last year hammering those rat-lines. 

In recent days our thinking has changed. What if the existential conflict lies in Syria and Lebanon is the secondary theatre?

Someone has had the same thought. The Times of Israel reports: 'Immigration Minister Yoav Gallant on Saturday said Israel has a plan in place to expel Iranian forces from Syria...'

Now that's complicated as hell. You have Syria, Iran, Russia (!), Isis, Kurds, pro-American rebels....in other words, typical Middle East.

We'll return to the ToI article tomorrow. In the meantime, readers may want to brush up:

Crazy Like a Jew

A few weeks ago we cautioned those who were disappointed at the outcome of the Israeli-Hamas flareup: remember the north.

Well:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Thursday that Hezbollah seeks to send “entire battalions” into Israel, including via the tunnels Israel is now tackling, in order to seize land, and kidnap and kill Israelis.

Netanyahu issued the bleak warning in a briefing for foreign ambassadors at the northern border, while a senior Israeli official indicated the IDF may have to extend its current operation to take action on the Lebanese side of the Blue Line as well. “It is possible that we will be required to act inside Lebanon,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

For those who don't know, Metulla is a town surrounded on three sides by Lebanese, really Hezbollah, territory. You'd have to be crazy to live there, or Jewish.

We're starting to think maybe the Israelis should just up and start a war. Nothing the Israelis do will ever placate the international community. Just yesterday the UN failed to pass a resolution condemning Hamas.

We say, roll north. Why not?

Prep work:

Blue Star Anxiety

The other day a friend asked about Israeli orders of battle during Operation Peace for Galilee, the 1982 invasion of Lebanon.

Naturally this led us to a conversation about Israel's OOB today. The IDF has only ten active army brigades. These are:

1st Infantry 'Golani'
7th Armoured 
35th Paratroopers
84th 'Nahal'
89th 'Oz'
188th Armoured 'Barak'
401st Armoured
460th 'Bnei Or'
900th 'Kfir'
933rd 'Givati'

All of these are elite, as good as say, a Marine MEU, Britain's 3 Commando, or the old 2nd Armored Cavalry Regiment.

We got to talking about the 2nd Lebanon War. The Israelis learned the hard way that Hezbollah possesses a serious military. Worse, the IDF's own reserves had decayed in terms of training and readiness.

That war was a huge shock to the Israeli psyche, probably as traumatizing as the 73 Yom Kipur War. Everything the Israeli government and IDF have done since 2006 is in response to what happened in Lebanon. This includes wonder weapons like Trophy and Iron Dome, but also training. The Israelis built a full scale mockup of an Arab town in which they train their regular and reserve units for the inevitable war with Hezbollah. The last three wars with Hamas, in 2009, 2012, and 2014, are merely previews. 

The Israelis view wars in Gaza as periodic necessities, 'mowing the lawn' they call it. 

The real war lies to the north.

 

50 Years of '67 Victory

So this week Israel is commemorating the 50th anniversary of the 6 Day War. Those curious can read about it in my own brief military history of Israel, Israel at War.

Basically, with Egypt and Syria threatening to annihilate Israel, and assembling forces in the Sinai and Golan respectively, Israel launched a sneak attack which destroyed the air forces of both nations. From there Israel forces advanced onto the Sinai and destroyed the Egyptian Army. After a few days Israel soldiers were swimming in Suez Canal. They followed up this victory by taking the Golan from Syria and the West Bank from Jordan, all in 6 Days.

The 6 Day War removed the existential threat to Israel and in its own way set the stage for peace with Egypt.

Of course the Yom Kippur War was far more interesting and hotly contested. Readers may also learn about the Yom Kippur war in Israel at War.

Today Israel faces no conventional military threat. Egypt has no interest in war. Saudi Arabia has a decent sized and well armed military but their anti-Israeli machinations are strictly pro-forma. Everything the Saudis do military is directed against the Iranian threat. Iran is Israel's real worry, Iran and her Hezbollah proxy in Lebanon.

50 years later the existential threat has returned.

From Israel at War:

This study is a collection of essays about the Arab sand Israelis at war since 1947 to the present day. The first half of the study details the conventional Arab-Israeli Wars, the reasons for Israeli victory and more importantly, the underlying causes of Arab defeat. The second half of this study describes Israel's struggles with non-state actors; that is, the well- armed and trained terrorist groups bent on Israel's destruction. The Arab-Israeli Wars were essentially a nationalistic conflict, while the terror wars of the 2000s and beyond have taken on the character of a religious crusade for Israel's enemies. As of this writing, (winter 2015) there is no reason to believe that the conflict will not continue.

Hezbollah Draws Redline

The Times of Israel Reports:

During a television interview with Iran’s state-run Islamic Republic News Agency, the terror chief repeated a previous threat to fire rockets at Israel’s nuclear reactor in Dimona and at a huge ammonia storage tank in Haifa.

Hezbollah will not keep to any “red lines” in a future war with Israel, Nasrallah cautioned.

Israel has said much the same thing. As noted here before Israel has basically told Lebanon and the Lebanese people that in a future conflict they will be unconcerned with civilian casualties.

What's promised by both sides goes far beyond what I wrote about in Israel Strikes.

I started Israel Strikes in 2011. Seven years later both sides have surpassed my own apocalyptic vision.

This is one of the reasons why no sequel is in the works.

I had planned a war with Egypt but the circumstances have changed and the country has switched back to military dictatorship.

Also the Israel Strikes still fit into the geopolitics of the region even with the Syrian civil war which had not yet escalated into the nihilistic bloodbath we see today.

We've been overtaken by events as they say.

This is a great time for Israel Strikes and Israel Strikes: War of the Red Sea, no?