Via Instapundit, Michael Yon, our man on ground, sends his thoughts on the situation in Hong Kong.
Yon who knows a thing or two about insurgencies, says Hong Kong is a Category-1 Insurgency:
Cat 1: Nipping and still snarling. Relatively minor economic attacks such as short closures of airport and MTR stations. Roads. Sides dehumanizing each other -- calling each other dogs, roaches, etc. This is precursor to killing. (We are here right now. At lowest end of Cat 1. Just starting minor insurgency.)
Yon says Category-5 is Iraq.
The authorities have withdrawn the controversial extradition bill, but what next? Is it too late to go back?
Chairman Xi has lost face. Between Hong Kong, protests spreading to the mainland, growing condemnation of the Uighur situation, and the trade war with the U.S., Chairman Xi is under enormous pressure. This blog believes it's only a matter of time before he snaps.
When Chairmen Deng sent the tanks into Tiananmen Square, President Bush dispatched Scowcroft the snake to reassure Beijing that the massacre changed nothing. Were Xi to do the same, the international situation would explode. Xi would create a new weakness that Trump, the master, would exploit ruthlessly.
Xi must act but can't.
Yesterday two million people took to Hong Kong's streets to demand Carrie Lam's resignation.
Remarkable.
Even Beijing has to pay attention, right? Right?
Won't it be easier to not back down in Hong Kong, put a general in charge and troops in the streets?
This blog once again fears that if Beijing backs down in Hong Kong, it will try to save face somewhere else.
Does the Philippines pay? Vietnam? Taiwan? Here's a thought, since China is also loosing the trade war, it decides the USA is responsible for the Hong Kong fiasco.
Via the Beeb, China has caved:
The Hong Kong government has suspended its highly controversial plan to allow extraditions to mainland China, Chief Executive Carrie Lam has announced.
She had previously refused to scrap the bill despite mass protests from Hong Kong residents.
"I feel deep sorrow and regret that deficiencies in our work – and various other factors – have stirred up substantial controversies," she said.
Protesters expressed concern at increased Chinese influence.
Ms Lam said she had heard the calls for her government to "pause and think".
Beijing is currently herding Uyghurs into camps, forcing them to drink alcohol, shave their beards and eat pork, all while demolishing their shrines and cemeteries.
We had feared another Tiananmen Square. So this developement is stunning, especially given that China is getting its ass kicked in the trade war. Beijing will soon suffer back to back defeats.
How will it save face? We shudder.
