The Tennesee Test Case

Long time reader(s) know we've been using the Tennessee senate race between Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn and former governor Phil Bredesen as a test for November. 

Well, here's the latest polling:

The most recent poll has Blackburn on top, responding no doubt to the Kavanaugh imbroglio. The one before that was from CNN, and CNN lies and is Hitler so....

We think that's gravity taking hold, as we are seeing the same thing in MO, ND, IN.

Cautiously optimistic...or pessimistic depending on one's affiliation.

Harris, what can you tell us?

Tennessee Two and Blue

Legal Insurrection reports on a new Mason-Dixon* poll showing former governor Phil Bredesen beating Marsha Blackburn in the senate race. The margin here is +3.

46% of those who responded favor Bredesen and 43% favor Blackburn. 11% of the respondents remain undecided.

Bredesen’s lead falls within the 4-point margin of error.

Both candidates reside in Middle Tennessee, which has Bredesen at 49% and Blackburn at 42%. Bredesen received 51% of the respondents in West Tennessee while Blackburn only had 38%

This is the fourth such poll we've seen. Of course Bredesen has state-wide name recognition and still can't get above 50.  Blackburn is a mere Congresswoman and no one outside of her district should know her, even if she's in the leadership.

LI points out Bredesen is 75 and when governor raised taxes and is running in a deep red state. At some point gravity should take effect and propel Blackburn to victory. But right now she at the GOP have work to do.

One last factor: people like their Blue Dog Democrats. These are (were) nice sensible Dems who believe in a strong America, a powerful military, and a government that helps people. You know, Roosevelt, Truman, Kennedy, even Clinton. Fortunately for the GOP the Dems are run by crazy people.

*For us, among the best polling firms.

Circumstances, Ideas, Candidataes: Tennessee Edition

Via Hotair we learn that Tennessee Republican Bob Corker may cancel his retirement from the Senate because polls show current GOP frontrunner Marsha Blackburn is losing to former Dem governor Phill Bredesen. Hotair says:

Well, it’s just one poll. Bredesen doesn’t really stand a chance in ruby-red Tennessee, does he? Don’t be so sure, wrote elections analyst David Byler in the Weekly Standard last month. Between his name recognition as a former governor and a national climate that favors Democrats, Bredesen will be competitive:

Phil Bredesen was a popular two-term governor. In essence he complies with one of Stroock's three laws of winning elections: Bredesen is a good candidate. However the circumstances should be terrible for Bredesen and we can't imagine how he's going to square Nancy Pelosi's ideas with the TN electorate.

But don't get cocky, as Tennessee native Instapundit likes to say. That's a competitive race.