OH 12 Special Election

With 100% of the district reporting, Republican Balderson has beaten Democrat O'Connor by 1,700 votes and one percentage point. About 8400 absentee ballots remain to be counted. Many of these will be overseas and military.

It's over.

Honestly when O'Conner pulled ahead with about 85% of the vote counted we thought, 'Here we go, the standard, last minute Dem surge.' Alas, it was not to be.

There have been six special House elections since Inauguration Day. The GOP has won five, some quite convincingly, some in nice suburban districts.

Special elections produce special results, which is why we have a nail biter in a district Trump won by 11.

My friend Bill Katz makes this observation: 'It appears that Republican turnout in Ohio's 12th Congressional District was only 40% of what it was in 2016, whereas Dem turnout was about 87%. This is not good. The only poll that counts is the one on election day, and the GOP must get its people out in November.'

As we said, special election. If Dems get maximum turnout against GOP minimal turnout and still come up short, well, they've got a problem.

A Note for the Blue Wave

Hot Air has the skinny on Ohio's Special Congressional Election on Tuesday.*

Where once the Republican was up, now he is tied.

Usually when a candidate is ahead there will be a tranche* of polls showing him leading by a lot, a little or tied. This latest poll may be that.

Or maybe the Dem has just surged.

The GOP won four special house elections last year and is batting 500 this year, losing in PA but winning in AZ. This is a solid Trump district.

If we're right the GOP will win on Tuesday.

If we're wrong there will be a Blue Wave in the fall.

*Actually it's a Ted Cruz v Robert Francis O'Rourke post with bonus Ohio covered.
**Look at us! We first heard Ronan Farrow use the word then a reporter used it yesterday.