Australia Tolls Doom for Polls

In Australia the polls were wrong.

Labour was supposed to trounce Scott Morrison and the Liberals*. Instead Morrisson won handily.

And the polls just weren't a little wrong, they were really, really, wrong.

Brexit, Trump, Australia...the Stroock Effect, whereby conservatives don't respond to polls, is real and it's spectacular.

So when you see polls that show Trump is underwater, or his approval is, say 42%, or he's losing to Biden, remember, the polls aren't just a little wrong, they're really, really wrong.

*It's like the Coriolis Effect. Down there, July is cold and Liberal means Conservative.  

Australia tolls Doom for Dems

This blog talks a lot about the weight of history in elections.

It's hard to do some things, like win an election when the sitting president is in your party. Ask Nixon or Algore .

This morning we'd like to talk about another historical precedent.

Come with us now back to the 2000's. Political issue numero uno in the English Speaking World was the Iraq Campaign. 

In the spring of  2004 incumbent Australian Prime Minister John Howard won reelection despite Labour hammering him over Iraq. This foreshadowed W's victory later that year and Blair's in 2005.

Today Australia foreshadows again.

Yesterday incumbent Scott Morrison was reelected despite Labour hammering him on immigration and 'climate change'.

Morrison's victory should terrify the Dems.