Changing Consensus

My friend William Katz makes an interesting point here about changing consensus:

"When I was a student at the University of Chicago I had to take a course called Natural Science I.  It was a basic science course designed for non-scientists, and we all hated it.  We were taught a number of scientific theories that won wide acceptance, but were eventually proved wrong.  I once asked the instructor, "Professor, why are we learning all these wrong theories?"  He replied, "We want you to understand how science proceeds."

Indeed.

This happens a lot in history. Until the late 90's the Vietnam war was widely regarded as an unmitigated military disaster. Then Lewis Sorely came along and pointed out that by 1972 the Vietcong had been largely destroyed and the countryside was under government control. The North Vietnamese grand offensive of 1972 was stopped by the ARVN with American support.

A lot of WWII historians thought the Allied strategic bombing campaign was a bust. And while it failed to destroy German industry, Richard Overy argued persuasively that the effort isolated German regions and forced them to become self contained and non-supporting economic zones.

Nixon underwent something of a renaissance in the '90s, Truman was reviled when he left office, Bush the Elder can now point to several foreign policy achievements. I've always believed that George W. Bush will enjoy great popularity in the coming decades. In 2009 his reputation had nowhere to go but up.

Eventually one will forget a president's quirks and traits the attitude and swagger that made him so irritating. I once loathed Bush the Elder and Bill Clinton, voted against the Elder in '92, but with each passing year I find it hard to recall why. All we are left with is what the accomplished. Neither is bad or great both did good things.

No president is as great as he is made out to be. Roosevelt extended the Depression and gave Eastern Europe to the Soviets. Reagan sent the Marines to Lebanon for some reason. Jimmy Carter was a horrible president but smuggled weapons to Afghanistan and warned Brezhnev against a harsh crackdown in Poland.

Which is why I always laugh at professors who tell me how rotten George W. Bush is.