The estimable Sean Trende writes a great analysis. Go read it.
Two salient points I think.
First, stop thinking that you've figured out politics that you have the winning formula. Politics never changes. Every four years you start at zero and have to get to 270 Electoral Votes. It's a 50/50 country, and usually is. Americans aren't prone to great political swings one way or the other and are inclined to split the difference.
Bottom line, the only difference between FDR and Reagan are small details.
Second, he goes into John Judis and Roy Texiera's The Emerging Democratic Majority, written in 2002. This is pretty much where the whole demography and destiny argument began. I vividly recall reading it and thinking, 'Oh crap.' Well how's that working out for the Dems?
I've got a counter to the Demo is Dest theory. Demography is destiny, but the Dems have reversed it. All these hipster douche-nozzle's rioting for safe spaces and safety pins, how many kids do they have? How many are they gonna have?
Me, I have three adorable little girls.
Any questions?
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