Alt-Hist-Ken

We'll, we're commemorating the hundredth anniversary of President Kennedy's birth. He's only a hundred? Jeez it feels like he's been around a lot longer than that.

Kennedy was already a legend by the time we became aware of the man with the 20th anniversary of his assassination in 1983.

Many have wondered what would have transpired had Kennedy lived. We've heard some very absurd claims, from no Vietnam War to an early end to the Cold War. Neither one of these ideas makes any sense to anyone who knows anything about either conflict.

For my money, if Kennedy lives very little changes. He defeats Goldwater in '64, although not by Johnson's margin. From then on its full-60's away. All those forces that brought Johnson low were already at work before Kennedy was assassinated. And the Vietnam War? Well, all the people who were giving Johnson bad advice - Clifford, Taylor, McNamara - were already giving Kennedy bad advice.

By 1968 we're left with the same bitter, divided, exhausted country. We suppose Johnson would have run, but doubt he'd have gotten very far. Most likely we'd have seen a showdown between the old time Dems, represented by Humphrey, and the new anti-war Dems represented by McCarthy. Not only are they frustrated with the war, they're frustrated with Kennedy's slow pace of change. These folks have no use for Humphrey. We think McCarthy wins.  On the GOP side Nixon's still the one and can plausibly run on a campaign slogan of 'I told you so'. He handily defeats McCarthy.

Maybe having won a convincing victory in '68 Nixon doesn't feel he has to worry about '72. Or, given Tricky Dick's personality quirks, does nothing change?