I should add there is some anecdotal evidence supporting my supposition:
First, most of the polls showing Hillary! ahead show her beating Mr. Trump by wider margins than Barry beat John McCain. ABC has her 12 points ahead. That is ridiculous. Obama was a phenomenon and beloved. Nobody loves Hillary! Not even Bill and Chelsea.
Bill: 'I didn't rape that ugly one, did?'
Chelsea: 'That's mom.'
Second, Trump packs 'em in. Yesterday in Ohio he filled a 30,000 seat arena. Hillary! can't do that. There's a massive enthusiasm gap here. Counting bumper stickers is dangerous, Trump stickers are everywhere, but that particular poll is supported by the above mentioned evidence.
D, the historical factors all favor Mr. Trump. As mentioned previously, it is very hard to replace the sitting president in your own party, ask Nixon and Algore. This is a change election.
5th, polls underestimated conservative turnout in America in 2014, in Israel in 2015, in Britain in 2015, and in Britain's Brexit vote this year.
6th, lefties can mock Trump all they want, but his 'the system is rigged' message is powerful with a lot of regular people.
Eta, the left really hates her. I mean, they really, really, hate her.
Just remember that. And also remember that in 2012 I assured everyone I knew that the polls were skewed and Mitt! would win. What a tosser.
That said, this represents where the race stands:
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