How we used to Read Polls

By 2004, thanks to Real Clear Politics, it was possible to really follow the polls. Day in, day out RCP aggregated the latest polling data both national and state. RCP averaged national polls and came up with a pretty accurate reading for the popular vote. In 2016 RCP showed Hillary! with a two point lead. She won 48-46. The state poll averages for presidential and state races gave one a pretty good sense of where those races stood.

As we watched the polls come in we weren't concerned with the aggregate but the actual poll differential. That is, if five polls showed Senator Snort's lead at say, +3, +7, +2, +4 and even, we assumed he was leading. Of course it all came down to party ID samples. In 2004 the national party ID was even at 37. But a pollster could fiddle with the numbers and assume D+4 or D+2, what have you.

From 2004 through 2016 we trusted Rasmussen and Mason Dixon the most. In 2004 Zogby royally screwed up, waiting till 5 PM on election day and relying on faulty exits for his prediction of 370 EVs for Kerry. In our mind Zogby's reputation has never recovered. Newsweek, Time, etc were as crappy then as they are now. Gallup was very much in the middle, so was Fox. We noticed in 2004 that Fox was never right, btw.

Most pundits focus on the vaunted Indy vote. Last week Mark Steyn voiced skepticism at the Indy's importance arguing that base turnout was more important. What...? No!' we thought. And then we recalled that in 2004 Kerry won Indys by 3 and in 2012 Romney won Indys by 5. Hell of a lot of good it did them.

We don't read polls this way anymore. In fact, we don't read them at all. They're utter shite. This article by Scott McKay in The Spectator matches our own thinking exactly. We don't agree with him, he agrees with us. His top line points for a Trump win: 1-Nothing much has changed since 2016, 2-American culture is trending Trump's way, not Biden's,3- ground game advantage, Trump (bigly), 4-what is Biden selling anyway?, 5-and he who has more fun wins. Gotta tell you folks, it's fun being Deplorable.

For the record, this blog predicts polls in the coming weeks will show Trump gaining lots of ground.

On Believing the Polls

Even Rasmussen says Trump is getting creamed. 

If you believe Rasmussen then you have to believe NBC and CNN too. Or if you believe CNN and NBC then you have to believe Rasmussen, long held by this blog as the most accurate poll.

If we believe the polls, here's the explanation. Trump has botched the Wuhan Virus and the nation believes Biden will do a better job. Also the nation is simply tired of Trump.

But...but...the polls were wrong in 2016. 

Yes, and the polls today show Biden beating Trump by an even greater margin.

So they're just that more wrong.

No excuses.

That's the explanation.

Boy an awful lot of polls have to wrong...

An Awful lot of Polls have to be Wrong for Will to be Right

Yesterday afternoon the NYTs released a trio of polls that had Biden walloping Trump in AZ, FL, and PA. Yeah, sure, we thought, the NYTs. Then we checked the crosstabs. In all three the GOP was ahead by a couple of points in the partisan breakdown. Gulp, we thought. Then we went through the rest of the polls, and not only do they show Trump losing, they show the GOP getting wiped out in a blue wave. That was a rough 20 minutes. 

Then we pulled ourselves together. Yes, the polls show Biden winning. But the metrics, by which we mean new voter registrations, digital contacts, door knocking, size of volunteer army, data op, even Twitter followers and YouTube upvotes, these all say Trump is going to win. How about rally attendance? C'mon, man.

Historian Larry Schweikart has a pair of long threads here and here that match our own thinking on the matter. We don't agree with him, he agrees with us. We didn't find Schweikart and decide, oh yes that makes sense.  No, we've been saying the same thing as Schweikart since 2016.** He even points out that in 2018 he got the House wrong, but was right about the Senate and governor's races. This matches our own record exactly.

This week, a CBS News poll says Biden is leading by 10*** and NBC says he's leading by 14(!). These polls said the same thing back in 2016. Meanwhile we looked at the massive enthusiasm gap and said Trump's gonna win. We say the same thing now.

*We obsessed over polls in 2004 thanks RCP! There was no point in obsessing in 2008, we all knew who was going to win. 2012 was the last year we obsessed so.

So reader(s), it just comes down to which measure you believe. We say check the track record first.

**He's broadened our understanding though, Zen Master indeed.

***We'd Rather not. Heh.

Texas Blue Biden?

So there's a poll that shows Racist Joe Biden beating Trump...in Texas.  Of course the perverts and degenerate communists in the media are going with it. They think becuase the lavishly funded and compellingly arm waving Robert Francis O'Rourke made it close against the unpopular Rafael Edward Cruz, Texas is slowly turning. 

This isn't about sampling and weighting anymore, it's about logic.  If Barrack Hussein Obama (S-Nairobi)*, a great candidate with great ideas and great circumstances couldn't beat Establishment Warmonger John McCain (Jerk-DC) who was a terrible candidate with bad ideas and horrible circumstances, what makes anyone, anywhere think Joe Biden can win Texas?

Fading, racist, Depends wearing slo-Joe isn't beating Trump in Texas, or anywhere else outside the blue-hell-holes. The polls are fraudulent. To believe these opinion polls, one has to believe opinion polls taken in a country where it is illegal to hold certain opinions.

We said the polls were wrong in 2016 and we were right. We say the polls are wrong in 2020 and we are right.

*This blog's official position is that Barry Soetoro was born in Kenya. Not kidding.

Whither Trump? You Cannot be Serious

We fancy ourselves an analyst with actual expertise on things political. We're right more often than wrong, which is more than the so-called pros on the networks can say. We saw what was happening in 2016 and called it. Polls said Hillary! would win. We said Trump would win. We were right and the polls were wrong. Don't. Ever. Forget. That. 

[How can we when you won't stop reminding us?-Ed]

2016 was no fluke. There were three things to call in 2018 and we got two of them right. Again, we got a better record than CNN.

[Hard not to-Ed]

This blog would be remiss if it didn't comment on the avalanche of catastrophic polling data showing Trump being wiped out. 

We're not going to break these polls down. When you're explaining, you're losing. Instead we'll ask you this: do you really think Joe Biden is beating Trump by 14 points nationally? Do you really think he's beating Trump by 16 points in Michigan?

Do you know Republicans actively mess with pollsters? We know we do.

Also, do you really think Trump's base is unmotivated? Do you the general public is going to vote for riots and defunding the police? Do you think independents are going to support the mentally deficient, pervy and racist Joe Biden?

Good lord, Trump isn't even campaigning yet. And still GOP turnout in the primaries has been massive, above 50% what it was in 2016 in some states. A million people have requested tickets to the Tulsa rally, and Trump raised $14 million in contributions last weekend, a record. 

Just wait as Trump positions himself as the man who fought the Wuhan Virus and led the comeback.

We got our absentee ballot and your goddamn right we're sending it in. We're so motivated we may even vote twice. And get this, just today we spoke to a coordinator with Keane for Congress about doing some volunteer work.

[Holy shit!-Ed]

And by Adon's Ban.* 

There.

We also suggest reading this thread by Larry Schweikart which sums ups our views just about. 

Oh, and last December polls said the British election might be close. Boris and the Tories won a landslide. Why would anyone ever believe these people?

*Reference

Nate Silver's Making it Up

Watch data-king Nate Silver flounder on election night:

It's not pretty is it? Just look at the hair. He's been grasping his hair, pounding his forehead, 'But the data said Trump would lose!'

Silver is flummoxed. 

Worse he's discredited and he knows it.

We'd like to draw reader(s) to two points. 

First, Silver admits pollsters 'herd' and 'they don't want to be out of line.' Jesus Christ. Pollsters are manipulating their data to agree with their pollster buddies. 

Second 'the next to last poll at the time was the honest opinion of the pollster...' What the hell does that mean?

I'll tell you what it means.

It means pollsters don't know. 

Silver goes on to talk about 'our model'.

Holy shit.

They're winging it.

Poll This

Drudge notes that Brazil's 'Trump of the Tropics' 'Defies Pollster Forecasts' and has won a tremendous victory.

We've been screaming about pollsters mis-underestimating right-wing turnout for two years now. This happened not only in America in 2014 and 2016 but in Britain with the Brexit vote (though the forecasters screwed up the follow on parliamentary vote in the other direction), Israel, the Continent. One gets the idea.

Conservatives don't talk to the media anymore, certainly not strangers asking questions over the phone.

And remember pollster's dirty little secret:they call the same people over and over again. We've been polled three times so far this autumn and at least another three times earlier in the year.

By the way, another poll is out showing Blackburn ahead in Tennessee. That oughta 'bout do it, right Harris?

You've been Stroocked

Yeah, I got it right. I saw the signs, yes, I saw the signs.

I honestly don't understand why so many people are stunned by Mr. Trump's victory.

Let's take this number by number, real slow, so that even a J-school trained media stenographer of the kind working at the Times or the Post can understand it.

1-There were plenty of polls that showed the following:

1.1- Trump locked up Ohio. He locked up Florida. By the last week Mr. Trump was campaigning in PA, MI, WI, and Minnesota. None of these states had gone GOP since the 80's. Minne-frakin-sota!

1.2-We've had five major elections in the western world in the last few years: the US midterms, Israel, Canada, Britain and Brexit. In four out of five of those races polls consistently underestimated conservative turnout. The one exception was Canada. Why Canada? Because there was no social cost for supporting Prime Minister Zoolander.

2- You need three things to win. Circumstances, candidates and ideas (thanks Rush).

2.1- Well, the circumstances for Hillary! were terrible, weren't they? The economy stinks. Our foreign policy is a wreck and it is really, really hard to replace an incumbent in your own party.

2.2 - Hillary! had all the charisma of a damp rag (to borrow from Mr. Farrage) and a low grade bank clerk, (to borrow from Mr. Farrage again).  She was a horrible candidate. She's Bobdole without the Viagra.

2.3 - Hillary! had no ideas. Hillary!'s idea was Hillary!

3- We all got Trumped

3.1 He had circumstances.

3.2- He had a couple of very sloganable ideas.

3.3- He turned into a good candidate. He was fun and exciting.

4.0 Anecdotal

4.1- You could feel it. You could see the Trump stickers and the Trump yards signs. They were everywhere.

4.2- He packed them in, everywhere he filled arenas.

4.3- This made for a vast enthusiasm gap.

5 Trump was underestimated

5.1 He vanquished the best slate of candidates the GOP has fielded in a generation. Ted Cruz is picking up Trump's dry cleaning. Rubio wants to know what time his cheerleader wife should be at Trump's suite, and Jeb Bush's political skull is being used as an ashtray for Mr. Trump's victory cigars.

5.2 Yet still the Dems underestimated him. Morons.

You all listened to a bunch of number-crunchers with a lot of high-falootin degrees analyzing distributions and regression lines; I don't even know what that is. Old Washington hands assured us that is was over when the tapes came out (I'm looking at you, Chuck Todd, who I'm pretty sure interviewed me for a job at Roll Call in 2000). Mike Murphy and Bob Shrum assured us all Hillary! was gonna win. Check the resume's of those two clowns, see what they ever won.

Meanwhile, me with my on-line degrees, my little free blog,  and my self-published books, saw what they couldn't.

Bow down. Bow down before me. Not because I have the sight, the clairvoyance, or even the Force. Bow down because I opened my freaking eyes.

Jerks.

Beware the Silver Svengali

Every election has its Svengali, its schwamie who can look at the data and predict what will happen.

This year it was Nate Silver at 538. I never paid him much attention, though I admit he called 2012 on the dot. Most of my liberal friends check him daily to see that 'everything was all right'. Well he blew it. He shouldn't feel bad, he's not the first.

After the '96 election the best pollster was John Zogby. He nailed the vote percentages that year and picked up Gore's last minute movement in 2000. Then he wrecked himself in 2004, waiting till 5 PM on election night to make his predictions, after the exit poll data came in. That data was deeply flawed. Zogby predicted Jean Francois Kerry (A-hole, France) would win 390 electoral votes. He didn't.

The big winner in 2004 was Scott Rasmussen, who became something of a cult leader among us poll watchers. I was the leader of that cult. He nailed the 2002 off years, 2004, 2006, and 2008 (which was easy) and 2010. He was dead last in 2012 and was ousted by his own board.

So now Nate Silver goes down. I guess the IBD Poll is the new Svengali. I wonder how they'll get it wrong in 2020.

Keep on Trumpin'

Once again we see the university polls showing Hillary! with a substantial lead while the daily trackers show Mr. Trump with a small lead. I prefer to believe the daily trackers. Why not?

I should add there is some anecdotal evidence supporting my supposition:

First, most of the polls showing Hillary! ahead show her beating Mr. Trump by wider margins than Barry beat John McCain. ABC has her 12 points ahead. That is ridiculous. Obama was a phenomenon and beloved. Nobody loves Hillary! Not even Bill and Chelsea.

Bill: 'I didn't rape that ugly one, did?'
Chelsea: 'That's mom.'

Second, Trump packs 'em in. Yesterday in Ohio he filled a 30,000 seat arena. Hillary! can't do that. There's a massive enthusiasm gap here. Counting bumper stickers is dangerous, Trump stickers are everywhere, but that particular poll is supported by the above mentioned evidence.

D, the historical factors all favor Mr. Trump. As mentioned previously, it is very hard to replace the sitting president in your own party, ask Nixon and Algore. This is a change election.

5th, polls underestimated conservative turnout in America in 2014, in Israel in 2015, in Britain in 2015, and in Britain's Brexit vote this year.

6th, lefties can mock Trump all they want, but his 'the system is rigged' message is powerful with a lot of regular people.

Eta, the left really hates her. I mean, they really, really, hate her.

Just remember that. And also remember that in 2012 I assured everyone I knew that the polls were skewed and Mitt! would win. What a tosser.

That said, this represents where the race stands:

Go Trump Yourself

I didn't watch the debate, instead I Netflixed That 70's Show (which I'll do a post on soon) and The Ranch (same).

Nothing that happened in last night's debate will change anything. Already the biggest takeaway is Mr. Trump's refusal to accept the election results outright. This is being portrayed as a blunder by the usual suspects but it fits right in with his 'system is rigged' message.

Hilariously (pun unintended till I wrote it, at which point I saw the pun) the Dems are screaming bloody murder about this. Really guys? You recall, don't you how Algore tried to steal the election in 2000 right? Don't you remember Babs Boxer delaying the Ohio vote count results for a day in 2004? You're the ones who made 'voting irregularities) part of the political vocabulary.

'Sore/Looserman' is the best bumper sticker since 'Vote for Cuomo/he's no homo'. Go ahead and google that last one.

So suck it.

Interestingly we see polls showing Hillary! ahead, but we see three tracking polls, Rass, IBD and LA-Times showing Mr. Trump. I've been watching and dissecting polls for a long time, and I don't know what to make of that. Once more, someone is really wrong.

Trumpzilla

Well that's was interesting.

Between Mr. Trump finally getting his feet under him, Hillary!'s 'deplorable' remark, and her syphilis induced neurological health crisis, Mr. Trump has surged.

Just this morning we learn that he is +6 in the LA Times Poll, ahead in Fl, OH, NV, IA...

But let us backtrack.

There is a line of thinking that Hillary!'s deplorables remark is actually working for her, driving a wedge in the Trump camp. Please. It has totally backfired. It took them, what 36 hours to produced a great ad with the remark. You'd have to be sipping martinis on the banks of the Potomac while a Mexican waiter brings you champagne, caviar and fa-goi (I'm not bothering with the spelling) to believe that. You'd have to be Jennifer Rubin. Jesus wept, and I used to read her everyday.

Insulting half the electorate is NEVER a good idea.

But let us not kid ourselves. On part of Mr. Trump's rise is due to Hillary! being the worst person ever. The man has run a great campaign the last three weeks or so. The Mexico trip, his Michigan visit yesterday, this paid leave idea...even before the weekend he was closing in.

I don't know why anyone is surprised. He sliced through the GOP's best candidates with ease. Bush, Rubio, Cruz, Kasich...today Mr. Trump drinks the classiest champagne from their political skulls.

Now two weeks ago the word was Hillary was going to run out the clock. In the American NFL we call this the prevent defense. The idea is that the defense drops back, gives up small plays so it can stop the big ones. This never works, but there's no dissuading NFL coaches from this strategy. The prevent defense prevents you from winning. Foreign readers should look up 'John Elway + The Drive' to see what I mean.

Now she can't do that. She has to come out, be active, shake things up. The problem is she can't do that. She's a physical wreck suffering from some sort of neurological disorder, post concussion syndrome and syphilis. Independent of all this Hillary! has just not aged well. Not all of us do. My father-in-law is 70 and wheel chair bound. When my grandfather was 70 my sister and I could pass for his children. Such is the genetic lottery.

The thinking also was that Hillary! could make Mr. Trump screw up in the debates. Again, the man has utterly annihilated well thought of, seasoned politicians in 20 debates. Does anyone think he's really going to be rattled in debate # 21?

Hillary! needs to come up with some ideas, but she can't do that. Hillary! doesn't have ideas, other than Hillary!

Hillary! needs to attack Trump, but what can she say about him that isn't also true of Hillary!? What, he treats women badly? Oh I know, shady business dealings! How 'bout his foreign policy ideas? Yeah, Hillary really wants to have a debate on Iraq, Syria, Libya....what difference does it make?

Look folks, I'm a Rubio man. I hold no truck with Mr. Trump. But Mr. Trump has tapped into something. Coupled with the fact that Hillary! is the worst person in the world, heck, he's in great shape.

I wonder how Melania will decorate the White House.