Fun with Political Charts

We've been thinking about last week's off year elections and historical implications. The Dems swept, of course.

Below we've assembled a handy chart listing the Virginia and New Jersey governor races, the congressional races and finally presidential elections going back 25 years.  The party affiliation, D or R, represents the victor in that race.

VA & NJ     Congress       Presidential
1993               1994               1996
VA-R                R                  Clinton
NJ-R

1997               1998               2000
VA-R                D*                Bush
NJ-R

2001               2002               2004
VA-D                R* *             Bush
NJ-D

2005               2006               2008
VA-D               D                  Obama
NJ-D

2009               2010               2012
VA-R               R                   Obama
NJ-R

2013               2014               2016
NJ-R                 R                  Trump
VA-D                R

Ok, so first, are the VA and NJ elections harbingers? Sometimes yes, sometimes no. Christie Whitman's victory in NJ in 1993 was about then Governor Jim Florio's tax increases and had little to do with Bill Clinton. We lived in NJ in 2009 and John Corzine (D) losing had nothing to do with Obama.

Second question, are the congressional elections harbingers?The congressional elections show  a 50/50 split, that is, sometimes D, sometimes R. Honestly there was no stopping Obama in 2008, not after the crash. The GOP has a habit of romping in the mid-terms but failing in the presidential election.

Overall the conclusion is maddeningly obvious. We can't know.

*GOPs kept control of both houses but expected to pick up seats and instead lost. This was a disaster for the GOP and a D win.

**Dems expected to pick up seats but GOPs picked up seats. A disaster for the Dems.