Basically the Dems hold a 10 point generic ballot advantage and the average off year house swing is 32 seats against the sitting party. The Republican House majority is 24 seats.
But Axios admits:
Republicans typically hold a built-in advantage in House elections in modern politics. The reason: a combo of congressional districts designed for a GOP edge + the fact that old, white voters outperform in off-year elections because they actually vote. But Democratic momentum looks like it could drench the map.We saw this momentum in Britain last year with the parliamentary elections.
The left is pissed.
But the Dems off year pickup average is not as obvious as it looks. The Dems actually gained a seat or two in '98, as did the GOP in 2002.
In 2006, when the GOP got wiped out, the Dems gained 31 seats. They needed an unpopular president in his 6th year and a foundering war to do it.
Four years later the GOP gained 65.
We make this point because the GOP off year advantage is yuuuge. Let us not forget that at the state level the GOP has gerrymandered the fuck out of the house districts.
Also the Dems were 0-4 in House special elections last year.
So it really comes down to motivation and turnout.
If Trump delivers he'll be fine.
If Trump doesn't, hello Speaker Granny Botoxi.
File photo possibly not Nancy Pelosi
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