There will be no Blue Wave

The guys at Powerline made a great point about midterm elections a month ago maybe. In order for a wipeout to occur you have to have some really unpopular things happen.

Let's look at 1994.  Clinton was dealing with the Healthcare debacle and the Crime Bill which he rammed though via old fashioned horse tading. Neither was popular. Dems were unmotivated. GOPs were highly motivated. The GOP picked up 54 seats.

Let's look at 2010. A bad economy, the Porkulous, Obamacare and a pissed off GOP-Tea Party. The GOP picked up 63 seats.

Now lets look at the election of 2006. You had an unpopular president in his 6th year, which is a double whammy right there, and goddamn unpopular war. You had massive corruption in the form of Jack Abramov and a congressional sex scandal. The Dems picked up 31 seats.

Look at how many things need to go right for a Dem wave to develop. Even when a Dem wave develops it's literally half as the powerful as a GOP wave. Heck,  in 2000 the Dems only needed 6 seats to swing the house. They even had a newsletter, the 6 Seat Sentinel. Six seats in a year when the late voter swing went toward Algore, and they still couldn't do it.

What's Trump done that's unpopular? The economy is great. He beat Isis' ass. He passed a yuuge tax cut. I bet he will have passed a few more popular items before November. Think Opioids.

Sorry folks, none of Trump's legislation is unpopular. There will be no Blue Wave

The once and future speaker

Speaker Pelosi: The Sequel

Via Drudge (Dilly! Dilly!) Axios tells us the GOP Congressional majority is fucked in Trump's Nightmare.

Basically the Dems hold a 10 point generic ballot advantage and the average off year house swing is 32 seats against the sitting party. The Republican House majority is 24 seats. 

But Axios admits:

Republicans typically hold a built-in advantage in House elections in modern politics. The reason: a combo of congressional districts designed for a GOP edge + the fact that old, white voters outperform in off-year elections because they actually vote. But Democratic momentum looks like it could drench the map.

We saw this momentum in Britain last year with the parliamentary elections. 

The left is pissed.

But the Dems off year pickup average is not as obvious as it looks. The Dems actually gained a seat or two in '98, as did the GOP in 2002. 

In 2006, when the GOP got wiped out, the Dems gained 31 seats. They needed an unpopular president in his 6th year and a foundering war to do it.

Four years later the GOP gained 65.

We make this point because the GOP off year advantage is yuuuge. Let us not forget that at the state level the GOP has gerrymandered the fuck out of the house districts. 

Also the Dems were 0-4 in House special elections last year.

So it really comes down to motivation and turnout.

If Trump delivers he'll be fine.

If Trump doesn't, hello Speaker Granny Botoxi.

File photo possibly not Nancy Pelosi