There is no Blue Wave.
It's not fair to argue that there will be no Blue Wave and not give our final prediction for the election.
Remember Will's election rule trifecta. Circumstances. Ideas. Candidates.
Circumstances: Trump is in the 48-51% range in the Rasmussen, the only poll we trust. The economy is great. ISIS on the run. Peace with North Korea. The big talk is illegal immigration and the Central American Invasion Face.
Ideas: What are the Dems ideas? They hate Trump. That's all they got.
Candidates: Some are good (Robert Francis O'Rourke), more are nuts Krystyn Sinema).
The same people who predict Dems to win the house assured us Hillary! would win.
Conjectures
-Final consensus seems to be that the Dems have a +7 advantage in house preference. Even if we thought this number were true, it's not enough to produce a wave. Much of that is CA, IL, NY padding.
-Several House polls show vulnerable GOPs well ahead.
-In 5 of 6 special House elections the GOP has won.
-The GOP is well ahead of it's previous pace for early/absentee voting in places like AZ, FL, TX.
-The last Dem wave election in 2006 produced 33 house seats. In that year you had good Dem candidates, an unpopular president in his 6th year, an unpopular war, GOP House corruption and a great Dem slogan: Had Enough?
-In 2006 the GOP base was unmotivated.
-Is the GOP base unmotivated today?
-Since 2014 polls have underestimated conservative turnout, not just here, but across the English speaking world.
-There is a big increase in R voter registration in battleground states.
-The GOP can and will flip several House seats.
Will's Final Prediction:
GOP loses 10-15 House seats. Many house seats take weeks to resolve.
GOP wins AZ, FL (just barely), IN, MO, ND, MT, NV, TN, TX senate seats. Loses WV, and NJ (barely after recounts, litigation, etc) Dems get scares in MI and MN.
I hope the best people win, I have to agree with you as far as Texas Senate seat goes...However I think it may be real real close. Truthfully I am hoping Lizzie Fletcher in Texas 7 and possibly a huge state level swing...but doubtful...message wasn't gotten out well and I am a VERY atypical voter. I want higher taxes, less spending and a spot on debt reduction plan. I want upper income tier reforms to close up all loopholes. I want taxes on the individual plane to be simplified and clarified. I want corporate taxes to stay at their reformed levels, that was needed. I am pro Paris accords, TPP, and dealing strongly with China. I am pro Medicare for all(but not free for all, pay a deductible and premium), privatize a portion of Social Security(say 20% tops), raise the low end of SS and drop the high end....anyone who gets 4-5 years from it gets all they invested with interest back...the remaining 10-20 years of your life is just gravy. I could go on, but there is some grist for the meal.
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