Election Wrap up Part Dos

We have to admit that the end result of this election has confounded us.

Let us state right off we believe the Dems have stolen the seat in Arizona and a bunch of house seats in California. The reader(s) may be skeptical, which is fine, but answer this question: why do all these late recounts always, ALWAYS favor Dems? Call us a sore loser if you like, but we're not the ones trying to throw out the rules to get none citizen votes counted.

Bottom line,  the suburban districts swung Blue, and Red States swung Red.

When Trump wins easily in 2020, he'll swing a lot of those suburban districts right back to Red. The difference is many of the once and future Red districts will have much more conservative GOP reps. Our new Dem rep here in NJ-07, Tom Malinoswki will be replaced not by but Leonard Lance by a much more conservative candidate. That's not really a prediction just an example.

The Dems are further to the left, and the GOPs are further to the right.

Try getting these two to agree on anything.

In that sense, this election was another sign post on the road to Civil War.

Apportion This

By now you've all seen and heard the leftist complaints about the House 'popular vote' and the senate 'popular vote'.

[Narrator: This is not a thing]. 

This is so unbelievably fucking stupid it's unbelievable. We here at William Stroock dot BlogSpot dot com understand we don't need to take our valued readers through this argument.

[Narrator: No, you don't].

But we would like to point out that this unbelievably fucking stupid argument reveals something about the people making it.

Look folks, we all know that our congress-critters represent our geographic district and our senators represent our states. Now to be honest, from a geographical and cultural point of view the 50 states aren't really what they were in 1789. 

[Narrator: there were only 13 states.]

Back then each had it's own feel, interests and differences.

We've lived in the Northeast Corridor our entire life, north of NYC, south of DC and now west of NYC. We can assure folks in Texas, California, Tennessee, Italy that there ain't much difference between Arlington, VA and Bridgewater, NJ. Honestly if one were to redraw the map the Northeast Corridor should be its own state.

But to the leftist making these fucking stupid popular vote arguments, geography and region don't matter at all. It's the ideology that counts. These people want party apportionment, so that if the Dems win the popular vote then they win the house and senate.

[Narrator: Again, not a thing]

Prime Minister Justin* wanted to do that until the grownups in Ottawa talked him out of it.

*No, we didn't forget to add 'Trudeau'. He's a goddamn child.

No Blue Wave Stream of Consciousness

There is no Blue Wave.

It's not fair to argue that there will be no Blue Wave and not give our final prediction for the election.

Remember Will's election rule trifecta. Circumstances. Ideas. Candidates.

Circumstances: Trump is in the 48-51% range in the Rasmussen, the only poll we trust. The economy is great. ISIS on the run. Peace with North Korea. The big talk is illegal immigration and the Central American Invasion Face.
Ideas: What are the Dems ideas? They hate Trump. That's all they got.
Candidates: Some are good (Robert Francis O'Rourke), more are nuts Krystyn Sinema).

The same people who predict Dems to win the house assured us Hillary! would win.

Conjectures
-Final consensus seems to be that the Dems have a +7 advantage in house preference. Even if we thought this number were true, it's not enough to produce a wave. Much of that is CA, IL, NY padding.
-Several House polls show vulnerable GOPs well ahead.
-In 5 of 6 special House elections the GOP has won.
-The GOP is well ahead of it's previous pace for early/absentee voting in places like AZ, FL, TX.
-The last Dem wave election in 2006 produced 33 house seats. In that year you had good Dem candidates, an unpopular president in his 6th year, an unpopular war, GOP House corruption and a great Dem slogan: Had Enough?
-In 2006 the GOP base was unmotivated.
-Is the GOP base unmotivated today?
-Since 2014 polls have underestimated conservative turnout, not just here, but across the English speaking world.
-There is a big increase in R voter registration in battleground states.
-The GOP can and will flip several House seats.
Will's Final Prediction:
GOP loses 10-15 House seats. Many house seats take weeks to resolve.
GOP wins AZ, FL (just barely), IN, MO, ND, MT, NV, TN, TX senate seats. Loses WV, and NJ (barely after recounts, litigation, etc) Dems get scares in MI and MN.

Blue Wave?

Just go over to Hotair and see their four separate reports on Missouri, Nevada/NJ, Minnesota(!)and the general state of things.

Remember, these are our conservative, Trump-skeptical, inhouse pessimists.

The Comming of the Trump

The indispensable Paul Joseph Watson of Infowars points out that Barrack Hussein Obama ain't exactly packing 'em in.

Look, folks, Barry never did have any coattails, probably becuase he couldn't stop talking about himself. Drudge reports that Mr. Obama mentioned himself 92 times last night. 

As Barry's two terms were a lost decade for America so it was a lost decade for the Democrat Party, which lost over a thousand seats during eight years of regime enforced mediocrity.

Ten years after his election Barrack is old news. Like the Clinton's, another disastrous regime for the Democrat Party, Barry O isn't going away. It's like watching the last gasp of the urbanite hipster, clinging bitterly to his Light Worker.

Which is great news for the GOP.

Meanwhile Trump's Houston rally was like a rock concert, with tens of thousands packed in the rafters and tens of thousands more waiting outside.

Mine eyes have seen the glory of the coming of the lord, and it is Deplorable.

Will is Right and the Eggheads are Wrong: History

We don't use data.

We don't trust data.

We trust history.

Let's look at recent wave elections:

-1994 the GOP won 53 house seats and 8 senate seats
-2006 the Dems won 33 house seats and 8 senate seats
-2010 the GOP won 64 house seats and 6 senate seats
-2014 the GOP won 13 house seats and 9 senate seats

In all of these cases these were parties out of power whose base was fired up. At the same time the ruling party's base was demoralized.

Now let's look at a peculiar fact. The Dem wave in the house is only half the strength of the GOP wave in the house, isn't it?

Let's look at the circumstances of the 2006 Blue Wave:

-6th year of a presidency
-unpopular president
-really unpopular war
-corrupt party in power (anyone else remember Jack Abramoff?)
-the Dems recruited lots of good, moderate candidates, like Heath Shuler in South Carolina
-yuuge Dem motivation
-GOP base demoralized 
-Dems had a message 'had enough?'

The Dems had circumstances, ideas and candidates. That's the Will Stroock election trifecta.

Look at all the things that had to go right for in order for the Dems to win 33 seats.

This year the Dems need 23 seats to win the house.  Do they have good candidates? Do they have good ideas? Is the GOP base demoralized? 

[Narrator: No, it isn't]

One last bit.

In 2000 we were writing direct-mail fundraising letters and subscribing to something called the Six Seat Sentinel. This was the  newsletter of the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee. They needed 6 seats - 6 lousy seats - to win the house, and they still couldn't do it.

Will is Right and the Egg-Heads are Wrong

Look everywhere and you'll see that the polls are catching up to Will.

There will be no Blue Wave.

In a few days we're going to stop writing about this, partly becuase we're sick of it, and partly becuase we don't wanna get burned on election night, even though there will be no Blue Wave.

So we thought we'd talk about how we arrived at this conclusion.

Recall that we predicted Mr. Trump would win. We'll go through that methodology.

First of all we didn't and don't trust 'data'. This is just baseball eggheads crunching numbers and playing around with turnout models. They actually cooked up a poll that showed Robert Francis O'Rourke beating Ted Cruz, that's if one assume there were more Dems than GOPs....in Texas.

So why were we right about Trump and everyone else wrong?

We didn't rely on data.

We relied on history.

Also our lyin' eyes.

These were the facts:
-After 8 years a lot of people just want another party in power.
-Even in good times it's hard to replace the sitting president in your own party.
-Just ask Richard Nixon and Algore.
-Trump's rally's were like rock concerts.
-Hillary's rallies were like talks by the chairmen of the local osteoporosis support group.
-We saw people who never cared about politics wearing Trump hats.
-The press and pollsters consistently under-estimate conservative turnout.
-Elections are about ideas, candidates and circumstances. Hillary! had none of these in her favor.
-Every candidate has a year. 2008 was the year of Hillary! and she blew it.

And that's why she lost. Also she's a sickly, syphilis ridden, high-functioning alcoholic, corrupt kleptocrat, and all around horrible human being.

Tomorrow we'll go over why we say there will be no blue wave.

Wave?

The GOP leadership insists the Kavanaugh Nomination fight has given the party the shot in the arm it needed going into the mid-terms.

We've insisted for months that no such shot was needed.

We've really been arguing all these months that everyone is off a tick or so.

One of us is wrong.

As of right now the polls have caught up to where we were arguing the electorate already was, a slight Dem advantage, not enough to tip the House to them. At this point there is no denying what the polls are showing. 

We've argued for months that there will be no Blue Wave. Given these polls intellectual honesty requires us to argue that there will now be a Red Wave, no?

Conjectures:
-People are now openly declaring their GOP allegiances where they weren't before.
-Independents have swung massively to the GOP in disgust at what the Dems have done.
-GOPs are now super-hyper motivated.
-We were wrong the whole time.

Purple Polls

Legal Insurrection has rundown of the latest senate polls. Long story short, it's all purple. That is everyone is tied, no one is at 50, etc.  We'd like to point out that's a terrible place for two Democrat incumbents to be.We see the same in the FL gov race, though the Dem is ahead by 4.

Readers have probably notices we've been using the Tennessee senate race as a barometer, and the latest has GOP Blackburn up by 3 and 'winning' two of the last three polls.

Our thesis states that things are all tied up, Republican ideas are better than Democrat ideas. Also, the Democrats are freaking nuts. These factors will see Republicans through in November. Right? Right, guys?

Or are we wish casting? What do you people think?

The Wave

Hotair notices what we've noticed. Quoth the headline: New generic ballot polling: Midterms shaping up to be either catastrophic for the GOP or … possibly not too bad!

It really comes down to your world view. Either Trump is a fearful* mess, or he is the successful MAGA president.

Look around. What are the circumstances?  We have great economic news, foreign policy successes...

*See what I did there?

Barry left the Coattails at Home

Barrack Hussein Obama, whose career was hatched in the Chicago apartment of a pair of 60's terrorists, is on the campaign trial. This is priceless:

All told, the former president referred to himself – I, My, Me – more than 102 times in about 64 minutes, while simultaneously engaging in the type political pot shots he criticized Republicans for.

Barry O is like the Bourbons being restored to the throne, he learns nothing but forgets nothing. 

B Hussein O's presidency was disastrous for Democrats, who lost over a thousand seats nationwide during his eight years.

In 2010 W knew to stay the hell away. And they said he was the dumb one.

Professor O has no coattails.

We couldn't be happier. Please keep talking, professor. Please. 

What's next, dragging out Hillary's syphilis ridden corpse? Oh, no, no way....

Senor Trump

My friend William Katz points to a Washington Times article about Hispanic voters shifting to the GOP.

This is not unusual. In Texas, W and Rick Perry used to nab 30-50 percent of the Hispanic vote. In the 2004 election, W got 40-44 percent of the vote. The article notes, as we have noted, that Rick Scott is making great inroads with the Hispanic community in Florida.

The swing comes despite the border-family controversy. Or becuase? A side theory: as there are deep divisions within the Jewish community* so there are deep divisions within the Hispanic community, which is really many communities. A Mexican may not necessarily be all that upset about ICE deporting a Honduran.

But there is one identifier that is more important than race/ethnicity and that's class. 

Of course we live in Chindia. Our friends and neighbors are indistinguishable from us except for their race.

Middleclass persons, whether white, Jewish, Chindian or Hispanic, like prosperity. 

Which explains the Hispanic swing toward Trump.

Democrats, being Marxists at heart, should understand economic determinism.

*If we saw a drowning Hasidic we're not sure we'd throw him a life preserver. He wouldn't throw me one without first consulting the Talmud.

There will be no Blue Wave

Much to our surprise the GOP managed to get John Cox on the ballot for governor. He'll be running against walking* dumpster fire Gavin Newsom and his dumpster fire of a city, San Francisco. That race alone ought to draw out enough Republican voters to save a few threatened congressional seats.

Here in New Jersey our own Senator Bob Menendez (Dirt-bag, Dirtbagamala) seriously under-performed in his primary. NJ.com asks:

Lisa McCormick's surprisingly strong showing against U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez in Tuesday's Democratic primary begs the question: What about Bob? 

McCormick, a virtual unknown who did not report spending any money on the race, received the support of almost 4 in 10 Democratic voters.

While Menendez, D-N.J., was never seriously threatened with losing his party's nomination for another Senate term, his performance wasn't a good sign coming on the heels of his Senate Ethics Committee admonishment and a criminal corruption trial that ended in a hung jury before the charges were dropped.

Meanwhile the GOP nominated Bob Hugin for Senate, who strikes us as a good candidate. NJ elects Republicans, and Menendez is in big trouble. They're gonna have to work for this one. Again the GOP here ought to be motivated enough to turn out and save a few vulnerable house seats.

In our own house race, CD-07 our man Goutam Jois got about 12% of the vote. We voted against Leonard Lance for the guy who sounded vaguely Indian, we forget his name.

*Watch your step!

Red Wave, Crazy Like a

Via Breitbart, we learn that the latest congressional generic preference poll gives the GOPs a 6 point lead.

Oh come on, this isn't right, is it? A tie, certainly and probable on election day. But a six point lead? The pollsters are just messing with us now.

Or are they?

Right now the Democrat Party platform is to raise your taxes, impeach the president, take your guns and let grown men in the little girls room.

Said party is run by a San Francisco Socialist and a smarmy New York Jew and it's rhetorical sweet spot is hit by a crazy lady who ought to standing outside a Walgreens shouting things at invisible animals.*

That's a formal diagnoses, by the way. Let's just say we got osme experience on the subject.

Our paternal grandmother was a batty old lady from Waterproof, Louisiana. Don't tell us the heat doesn't fry people's brains down there.

We were watching movies like Airplane! and Blazing Saddles when we were seven years old.

Our idea of a good time used to be hanging out on the back porch in 95 degree weather with a beer, an Arturo Fuente Grand Reserve and an MS to edit.

We used to see how long we could keep those Indian IRS scammers on the phone asking for a Chicken Masala to go and Bollywood recos; personal record, 18 minutes, 37 seconds.***And we once got a life alert bracelet mailed to 1060 West Addison, Chicago.

We hang out on Gab.

Normal fucking people don't sit around all day making shit up and writing it down. Which is why so many creative types are depressive and suicidal.

Trust us, folks, Will Stroock knows crazy when he see's it.

As with the Chinese tariff and trade announcement this week, we see Trump keeps delivering. Nothing succeeds like success and no one wins like Trump. 

He's driving the Dems...insane!

Talking to the voices in her head **

*As always, come up with the reference, get a book.
**Pic via Alex Wong/Getty
***' Yes I am in the car...yes I am starting the car... Vrooom Vrooom!

There will be no Blue Wave

Legal Insurrection tells us that in the latest ABC/WaPo poll the Dem advantage in the generic ballot has fallen to +3.

Overall in the RCP average it's 6.8.

Somewhere we read how Nate Silver, disgraced pollster of 538,* noticed that in so called 'gold standard polls' where live interviews are conducted the Dem advantage is surging.

We call bullshit. Simply put these gold standard polls are being overrun with Democrats all too eager to tell the interviewer how much they hate Trump. Also, a percentage of these interviewers are lying about their party identification and passing themselves off as Republicans mad at Trump.

We know this becuase we used to do the same thing. A lot.

You see, as alert reader(s) will recognize we're kind of an amateur poll reader and know a lot more about how they work than your average middle-aged indy author. The weighting and averages are kind of interesting.

Usually with telemarketers our policy is to answer and fuck with them. We once got a medic alert bracelet delivered to 1060 West Addison, Chicago Illinois, and our all time record for keeping one of those Indian IRS scammers on the phone is 19 minutes. Never try to out crazy Will Stroock.

But in 2012 when pollsters called we'd answer and sit through the sometimes 15 minute interview. Now here's the dirty little secret about polling. Once one poll realizes they got a number who will respond, all the polls call. In 2012 we heard from everybody. Everybody. And depending on the poll we'd screw with them. 'Why yes I'm a Democrat and I hate Obama...'

[Jerk-Ed]

Anyhoo, pay no attention to the emerging narrative about so called gold standard polls. There will be no blue wave. Also, always Trust Trump. Never bet against Trump. And don't get sick of winning.

And by the way, that +3 Dem advantage? That's all California.

*Ok, ok 'disgraced' is a little tough. Actually Silver only said Hillary had a 65 percent chance of winning, which compared to most of the other guys...and at least Silver was screaming, 'Hey, folks, this is not over. If this were a ball game you'd be in your seat.'

There will be no Blue Wave

As it is written in the Talmud of Stroock, 'There will be no blue wave.'

So it is written and so it shall be.

Then again we were thinking about the 2017 British Parliamentary elections where there was indeed a blue, or in this case red wave.

[They sure got the colour right on that one, didn't they?-Ed]

Now, one of the things we're counting on here in America is the Democrat Party's overt craziness turning off lots of voters. Well, given the results of last year's parliamentary elections that might not be enough.

Labour's Jeremy Corbyn is indeed a communist, a Trotskyite to boot. Also, as previously noted, Corbyn hates Jews.

Labour still made gains in the House of Commons.

So we went and looked at the numbers from the 2017 elections. We combined the Labour, Scottish National Party and Lib-Dem vote for a rough left side turnout of 49% vs a 46% for the combined Tory-UKIP turnout.

Overall the Tories lost 13 seats and Labour gained 30 seats in the Commons...BUT, most of that came at the expense of the lay-abouts at the SNP who lost 21 seats.

Charisma free PM Theresa May, the Elizabeth Dole* of Brit politics was initially expected to romp leading to a yuuge pickup for those Tory wankers. So results did not match expectations.

Given that Parliament  has 650 seats in the Commons compared to 435 in the US House, Labour's 30 seat pickup was decent, but not a wave.

Roughly that would translate to about a 15-20 seat gain in the house for the Dems, no?

Gains for Dems? Yes. Wave for Dems? No.

*Back in 2000, National Review speculated about potential Veep candidates for W. When they got to Dole NR listed her positive attributes as 'N/A' and called her, 'Bob Dole without the Viagra'.

I have returned, Masala

There will be no Blue Wave?

Item: In Wisconsin the Democrat candidate for an open judgeship romped.

[Yeah, but both Barry and Biden campaigned for her, and there are tons of old-time progs in Wisconsin-Ed]

Item: Polls in the Mississippi race to replace Senator Thad Cochrane show the Democrat candidate ahead.

[Yeah, but the internals all look good for the GOP candidate-Ed]

Item: In Tennessee a new poll shows Bredesen beating Blackburn 45-35. This is the third poll that shows he's ahead.

[Yeah, but he's nowhere near 50 in any one of them and he's a Blue Dog known statewide-Ed]

Ok, Ed, ok. All good points and we agree.

Still, we're needing an awful lot of excuses, aren't we?

The Midterms: Circumstances, Ideas, Candidates

Is it too early to talk about the midterm elections? Probably, but whatev.

We will make this point a thousand times between now and November so gird your loins, reader(s).

Elections are about circumstances, ideas and candidates. If you have any two you're in good shape. If you have all three you win.

For example, during the 2002  midterm elections the Dems had some good candidates, Governor Jean Shaheen in NH, Lt. Gov Kathleen KENNEDY Townsend in MD. But post 9/11 the circumstances sucked for Dems. Worse the party had no ideas. So the GOP upset them and gained Senate seats.

Four years later in 2006 the Dems had great ideas like getting out of Iraq and 'had enough corruption'. The circumstances sucked for the GOP and a lot of good candidates like Tom Kean Jr in NJ lost. In fact it was a wipe out and the GOP lost the House and Senate.

So, if you're looking for a Blue Wave this fall, look for circumstances, ideas, and candidates.