We don't have much to do today, so we figure we'll just write a really long post.
We awoke last night with gout in our right ankle, but nuked it right away and feel fine this morning.
We got in back-to-backs at the gym this weekend and feel great about it. There will be plenty of exercise this week.
We have received the cover proof for The Salvation of 1976 and approved it. A review copy will be shipping out to our last ditch proofer this week. December, people.
We received an email yesterday from someone informing us that we mentioned Chet Huntly in The Great Nuclear War of 1975, but he died in 1974. Guess that's our new POD.
Don't ask us for insights on Israel's cabinet cabinet makeup. We have none.
This is interesting from Israeli Radar: 'Israeli defense chiefs expect that bombing Iranian nuclear sites will trigger a major clash with Iran and its proxies, led by Hezbollah. This will require IDF ground forces to launch a deep incursion into Lebanon and possibly Syria to stop a massive rocket and missile assault. Israel plans a rapid invasion of Lebanon immediately after fighting erupts, senior officers confirmed previously.'
And Syria! Wow. It's almost as if the IDF has been reading Israel Strikes, or something. The info leaks are messaging of course. Shorter headline, Israel to Hezbollah: Don't. The article makes it sound like war is inevitable. Is it? We know Israel has the government to fight such a war. Reminder, this would be the existential conflict. War to the hilt. Down to the triarii. Pick your metaphor. To put it another war, Lebanon, Israel won't be holding back.
Sticking with the Jew, at Taki's Magazine The Z Man has an article on blacks and Jews that makes some of the points we've made. 'Another reason for the panic is the fragile state of Jews in America. Excluding the ultra-orthodox, Jewish fertility hovers around one child per female. The ultra-orthodox breed like bunnies, but regular Jews have stopped making babies. Those who do reproduce often do so in mixed marriages. Jewish out-marriage is extremely high. The people we think of as Jews are slowly being erased from the book of life.'
Ahem. I myself am the product of a mixed marriage. The rest of the post is pretty chilling. Basically, The Z Man argues the old Jewish order in America is coming to an end. Yep. When one brings in people from the Third World, one brings in Third World values. We've met Indians and Chinese here in Chindia who've told us that they like how us Jews are good with money. Exit question, what do you suppose all those Muslim immigrants think?
Monday Metal. We go back to our standby, The Answer. We finally found a CD with a version of this hard-hitting blues song. At the three minute mark those lads really clonk the listener over the head. We remember the first time we heard it fourteen years ago. 'Fuck yeah,' we said:
The Thing:
From 2000 through 2012 polls were more or less accurate within a few points. Different pollsters used different methodologies to find just about the same thing. In 2012 we insisted that polls were over sampling Democrats. We said polls showing Dems + 5 were wrong. We were right about that, actually. Barry and the Dems didn't have a +5 advantage. Their advantage was +6.
But after 2012 most polls have badly under-estimated GOP turnout. An exasperated RCP has begun a polling accountability project where it rates pollster accuracy. Good. RCP is also normalizing polls, reworking the data to reflect what they believe are more accurate numbers. Obviously plenty of polls out there are complete crap. Last the year the RCP polling aggregate overestimated Governor Phil Murphy's margin of victory here in New Jersey by 5 points. Still, RCP is playing a dangerous game. We hope they win. We'll see.
We've had a solid political prediction track record since 2014. We called Trump's victory in 2016. In 2018 there were three things to get right, house, senate, and governorships. We went 2 for 3. To this day 2018 is badly misinterpreted. Yes, it was a good election for Dems, if you consider asking for sex and getting a hand job a success. The GOPs won all the big governorships and expanded their hold on the senate.
We said Trump would win in 2020. If you think that Depends wearing, sundowning, senile old racist pulled 12 million more votes than Light-Bringer Barry, then can I interest you in some Arkansas real estate opportunities? Here I am at the Stop the Steal Rally, Bedminster, New Jersey, as interviewed by the Epoch Times. I stand by every word. Functioning democracies do not need five days to determine the winner. Trump won. But to quote Ace, did the Democrats steal 2020? Yes. Does it matter now? No.
[What's your point?-Ed]
My point is I'm pretty good at this, better than most Twitter Blue Checks.
Which brings us to tomorrow's election. We've already voted. We'll be on a plane tomorrow and be at Disney World by the evening. We have dinner reservations at 7 PM. We swear to god this time we're not watching returns. [You say that every year-Ed]. The great Robert Stacy McCain has some smart advice for election followers.
Last spring political observer types were talking about a Red Wedding. We never believed that hype as the GOP did pretty well in 2020 and there just isn't enough room for the GOP to grow for a Red Wedding. After the Supreme Court overturned Dred Scott...sorry, after the Supreme Court overturned Roe, some fools on the left convinced themselves that angry white wine moms and urban Millennial professional types would vote the Dems to victory this year. As a wise Democrat political sage said 30 years ago, it's the economy stupid, and always has been.
Alert reader(s) will have noticed that establishment polls are bringing their party advantage estimate into line with what super-accurate pollsters like Trafalgar Group say. Look at that, the GOP is in the lead. Funny that, and interesting timing. As we predicted last summer the GOP would gradually take the lead in the autumn. We're not a genius. We don't have the sight. That's just how politics work. This election was never close. The GOP is +2.5 in the RCP generic congressional average. More than enough for a massacre.
Stroock's Books has always focused on circumstances, ideas and candidates. If you have any two you're in good shape. If you have all three you win like it's 1984 or 2008. Between the economy, inflation, the price of gas, crime, the border, the Afghanistan humiliation, and Covid aftermath (this is a big one), the circumstances for Democrats are atrocious. Joe's approval rating is in the low 40s at best. The Dem's big ideas are abortion and January 6th. Nobody cares. There just isn't a good reason to vote for Democrats this year. That covers circumstances and ideas. As far as candidates go, a lot of those 'unelectable' GOPs are looking pretty electable. At some point the fundamentals are so bad it doesn't matter how flawed the opponent is. We have reached that point.
The Dems have trotted out Barry and even Bill. They're campaigning in New York. Smart reader(s) will understand the implication. Sorry, but Barry has no coattails. [What about 2008-Ed?] Hillary! would have swept in all those Dems too. See above on circumstances. Or did you fail reading comprehension in your A-levels?
We're not going to put a hard number of GOP House pickups. Frankly we've no idea. But that number will be big. At least 30 and probably much more. Nancy Pelosi will have lost two house majorities.
The GOP will win the senate. Oz wins Pennsylvania. Did observers really think a television pro and doctor with a bedside manner wouldn't be able to relate to voters? Herschel Walker's verbal ticks are oddly endearing and GOP voters no longer care about a candidate's personal troubles. You won that argument Dems. Congratulations. Spaceman Kelly looks like a terrible candidate in Arizona and we'll see a GOP pickup there too. The GOP also wins in neighboring Nevada as polls have predicted for a month. New Hampshire? Why not? We know nothing about Colordo or Washington. We'll settle on GOPs +4 for a 54-46 majority.
We can't say that GOP Lee Zeldin will win the New York governor's race. But he might. Ben Shapiro thinks so. Ben Shapiro is a smart man. Governor Hochul offers nothing to indy voters, and the Dems have really pissed off the Orthodox/Hasidic Jewish community there. Crime is a huge issue. Kari Lake will win in a walk in Arizona, which is hilarious given that the Dems spent a lot of money to drag her over the primary finish line. Georgia governor Brian Kemp, whose head we wanted on a pike two years ago, will easily defeat Imperial Star Emperor and champion eater Stacey Abrams. We know nothing of the Oregon race.
At home here in NJ07 our boy Tom Kean Jr finally takes out Tom Malinowski. Lord knows we've seen enough anti-Malinowski ads. Even our girls are sick of them.
On a personal note, we've been following politics closely since 1992. This is the first election where we're not interested in policy. Taxes, spending, debt, healthcare, war, regulation. Who gives a crap? No, we want a reckoning. We want revenge. We'll write about what that entails and what we expect of the GOP next week.
We're off to Disney World tomorrow morning, and oddly excited about it. This will be Stroock's Books last post till next Monday.
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