Ceasing Again?

Another ceasefire in Gaza, this one in exchange for 40 hostages, seems imminent, or close anyway, or not. After the hostage friendly fire fiasco last week, a hostage exchange is a good idea - politically at least. The last ceasefire didn't hurt Israeli operations. Neither would this proposed ceasefire. 

In the meantime, Israel Radar reports that the Israelis are issuing ultimatums to the West. Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River or Israel attacks. Israel Radar notes that since 10/7 'the game has changed'. Quite right. The strategic calculus is different and Israel cannot accept terrorist groups operating with impunity on the border after 10/7. It's gonna be a long, long war. 

A fan in Israel had this to say about our Israeli poll speculation, 'The polls also show that if Bennett runs again, he would get 19 seats. Bibi was great at one time, but he has become too desperate to do what is good for Israel instead of what is good for himself. The straw that broke the camel's back was his refusal to take responsibility for Oct 7. I predict a center right government with Gantz and Bennett sharing the PM duties as before. Bennett will have veto power on any new laws concerning religion.' This blog endorses that outcome. As we've said time and again, Bibi, we can't miss you if you won't go away. 

We are intrigued by the anti-Houthi task force gathering in the Red Sea. But will it really do anything? It's as if life is imitating Israel Strikes: War of the Red Sea. We once wrote a long article about the Egyptian's counterinsurgency in Yemen, available now in Israel at War. Yemen is a country we don't need to invade. Fun fact, WOTRS has more ratings than Israel Strikes. Reminder: there will never be a third Israel Strikes novel. [Never?-Ed] Well....[I thought so-Ed].

We've no legal insights into Colorado's Obama judges banning Trump from the ballot next year, though we doubt the decision will stand. One does wonder if the Dems are overdoing it, just a bit. After a while, a candidate's flaws are 'priced in'. Everyone knew Bill Clinton's problems, or W's.  Everything the Dems have done the last decade is designed to turnout their base, a successful strategy. As with every week lately, this week it is less likely that Trump will lose in 2024. 

We've one observation about Ron DeSantis and his standing in the polls. Twenty years ago right now, several know nothing and never did anything candidates were competing in the Dem primary. Careerist seat warmer Massachusetts Senator John Kerry (did you know he went to Vietnam?) was polling single digits, and pundits wondered how long he'd stick around - right up until he won New Hampshire. And away Kerry went to the nomination. [Wish casting?-Ed]. A bit. 

We stare into the abyss and see ourselves staring back. [Meaning?-Ed]. Meaning we've absolutely no juju for the epilogue chapter in World War 1990: Norway depicting the destruction of the Soviet Northern Fleet, and we've no idea how to write it. We're overthinking, we admit it. Time to underthink. [That really shouldn't be a problem for you-Ed]. No it shouldn't.