Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Hezbo Low Blowed

Here are the terms of the Lebanon ceasefire. For more than a year this blog said Hezbollah, Bibi.  Bibi Hezbollahed. Yes, this is victory. Joathan Tobin at JNS has an excellent summation. 

Here's our own analysis. The Israelis got everything they wanted. Do note over the last year they eliminated Hezbollah's leadership, destroyed Hezbollah's border and tunnel infrastructure, destroyed tens of thousands of rockets and missiles, destroyed hundreds of bunkers and thousands of Hezbollah buildings, devastated Radwan Force, learned a ton about how Hezbollah operates, and forced Hezbollah to withdraw north of the Litani. Israel ended the fighting with a huge Parthian Shot aimed at Hezbollah financial institutions, intel, and remaining leadership in Beirut. 

With these terms Israel is attempting to strengthen the Lebanese government and the Lebanese army, making them a counter to a badly damaged Hezbollah. This agreement ain't quite standing on a battleship with an Israeli general directing Hezbollah diplomats to sign at the area indicated, but it is a Hezbollah surrender document. Over the next year, Hezbollah's strategic situation vs Israel will only deteriorate. Reminder, Iron Beam awaits. So does Donald John Trump.

Hamas says they want a deal too. Good. With Hezbollah pushed aside, Israel can negotiate from a position of strength. Joe says he's committed to an end of the war in Gaza with Israeli hostages returned and Hamas out of Gaza. Joe twisted Bibi's arm, they say. But this blog wonders if Bibi didn't twist Joe's arm. 

Oh, and France says they won't honor the ICC warrant against Netanyahu.

Exit question: what's Iran's game here? 60 Days? We shudder...

We continue plugging away at War Night's Australia story. We've plugged just about as much as we can plug. The Australia story is 10,000 words. We can't shake the feeling that it should be 9,000 words. Maybe 8,000. Maybe even 7,000. We're also getting a To Survive the Earth vibe. Reader(s) will recall this is the unsuccessful sequel and its lack of success killed some big plans we had. Harumph, fuck it. Maybe that's the summer sneak in? What do'ya think?

Hmmmm what if we took a bunch of novel ideas from the To Defend the Earth universe, and truncated them into short stories for a compilation? We could write a story titled To Liberate Mars. We could write a story about battles around the moons of Jupiter. We could write a story exclusively from the Jai point of view. We could even cover ideas we never got to in previous volumes. We like this idea. We like this idea a lot. January 2026? Doable. 

A few of you have suggested submarine stories for our nuclear war anthology submission. We shrug in the most Mediterranean way possible. We've done submarines, yo. The anthology editor seems to have the hots for a carrier based story about the USN slamming the Kola. We shrug most Mediterraneanly [Not a word-Ed] again. We've done that too. Perhaps we're overthinking things [A first-Ed]. Just because we have done a thing does not mean that we cannot do that thing again, does it not [There's a triple negative in there, impressive-Ed]?

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