Israel is Blue is Jersey Too?

We awake with a tight knee. It's now been nearly a week since we've been to the gym. Ugh. We're frustrated [What are you complaining about? You've said for weeks your body needs a rest and it clearly does, as evidenced by your knee, Knobhead-Ed]. Okay, after being up and about and some Aspirin the knee is loosening. 

New Jersey is wet and soggy after a day and night of rain. 

Related: to go on YouTube in New Jersey is to be bombarded with political ads for this year's gubernatorial race. My how we envy you people in the Rest of America who get a year off from politics. Anyway, the Dem frontrunner is Congresswoman Mikey Sherill, who has a good bio (navy pilot!) and is not crazy. Check out this ad. Sherill is touting her opposition to Trump and Musk. The GOP frontrunner is Jack Ciattarelli, who almost beat Phil Murphy in 2021 and whom we saw speak once at an open schools rally. Ciattarelli is touting his support for and endorsement by Trump. 

Predictions? On the one hand Mikey Sherill is a heck of a candidate and Dems will turn out to sock it to Trump. On the other hand Trump could theoretically rally the base (Scott Presler white courtesy phone...no, the white phone). On the gripping hand we've had eight years of Murphy. In our view Ciattarelli has a puncher's chance. Ciattarelli could win, but he'll need to run a super tight and focused campaign. Murphy! Murphy! Murphy!

Deals with Hamas* and Iran are close they say. Or not. Our own guess is that deals with both are coming. It seems the Trump people are frustrated with the Netanyahu people. Bibi pissed off Biden, Obama, Clinton, now Trump. He pisses off everyone eventually. It's a gift. 

Meanwhile Ynet reports: 'The Lebanese army, aided by Israeli intelligence relayed through the US, has largely disarmed Hezbollah in the south...' Excellent news. Hezbollah was always the existential threat. Also, the Israeli cabinet has approved 22 new settlements in Judea and Samaria. Most excellent on the merits, and good politics for Netanyahu's coalition. 

Nevertheless, poll numbers for Bibi and the Coalition look grim with the Opposition winning 57 seats to the Coalition's 52 - that's without Naftali Bennet in the race. If Bennet runs, he + the Opposition win 62 seats in the 120 seat Knesset - without the three Arab parties. But that election would not be held for another year. Also, do note that 53-27 Israelis want the war to end. 

Going back to the above mentioned deals, expect Bibi to go along to get along and put himself in the best position to win in 2026.

DOGE report: We edited the IRA Army Council meeting scene and reread one of our original IRA books. We admit to being weary of Ireland and the Irish [Heh!-Ed]. Shut up, Ed. You're from Liverpool.

We spent all afternoon researching the Honduran army. Turns out Honduras had an airborne battalion and a special operations battalion. Who knew? We had envisioned a Honduran force attacking from the Las Vegas Salient into north central Nicaragua. But most of the Honduran army was on the west coast. So moving them to the Salient makes no sense. The Las Vegas attack will be a Contra effort. A Honduran task force will advance down Nicaragua's west coast.  

We also skimmed through World War 1990: Castro's Folly, to refamiliarize ourselves with the plot, characters etc etc. We've gotten a few ideas and the prologue chapter is forming. 

*We can live with this, just barely. If the US and Israel can get a deal in Gaza that puts someone else in charge of Gaza and gradually sidelines Hamas, as is happening to Hezbollah in Lebanon, then Hamas is cooked.