2018 Wrap-up Part Un: There was no Blue Wave

We're shifting away from political talk here at William Stroock dot BlogSpot dot com.

We're tired of thinking about it and tired of getting worked up about something over which we have no control. Which is not to say we wont opine from time to time. But if reader(s) want blow by blow accounts of the various Dem House investigations, go to Hotair.com.

So this week we'll be wrapping things up.

Now as to assessing....we were majorly wrong about the house, as the Dem gain is approaching 40. That said, tons of those races, including our own here in NJ-07, were very close and should swing right back in 2020.

Overall we were right, there was no Blue Wave. A Blue Wave would have knocked off the GOP governor in Maryland, as it did in 2006, and done the same in MA. The GOP stopped the Dem's sexy candidates in TX, GA, FL and will pick up two senate seats. What the fuck Arizona?

We were right about the Tennessee test case. In the end Blackburn romped. 

Ohio seems to be going the way of Missouri, once a bell-weather, now solidly red.

The GOP has it's traditional suburban voter problem. Also healthcare. Get ready to hear 'pre-existing conditions' a lot. Don't kid yourself about Obamacare though, 2/3rds of the people who voted for it are out of office. Obamacare is not popular.

Overall we think Trump and the GOP are in terrific shape for 2020.

Blue Wave Polls

The good lawyers at Powerline are confused and we don't blame them.

The esteemed John Hinderaker wants to know how voters can reject socialism by over 70% and 56% think the Dems are 'out of their goddamn minds',* but prefer the Dems by 13% on the Congressional Ballot.

The answer is they can't.

One of those numbers is wrong. Both Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato favor the Dems to win the House. I say they will not.

Both Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato told you Trump couldn't win. I said Trump would win. Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato were wrong. I was right.

Today Charlie Cook and Larry Sabato are wrong, and I am right.

Mr. Hinderaker quite sensibly concludes:

My guess is that the polls are missing major currents that will become clear, as in 2016, only after the votes are counted. What those currents will turn out to be, no one really knows. I will say this, however: a large majority of voters disapprove of Democrats trying to murder Republican Congressmen while they are playing baseball, beating up Republicans in the street, hounding Republicans when they go out to dinner with their families, busing in “protesters” to make noise outside Republicans’ houses, and threatening violence against Republicans’ children. If the Democrats do poorly in November, I expect it will be less due to their theoretical embrace of socialism than to their inability to behave normally as citizens of a republic.

Mr. Hinderaker is too kind. The Dems are freakin' nuts and everyone can see that. Which is why there will be no Blue Wave.

*It's possible that I made up that quote.

Obama's Triumphant Return

“I’ll be honest with you. If I have a regret during my presidency, it is that people were so focused on me and the battles we were having, particularly after we lost the House, that folks stopped paying attention up and down the ballot.”- Barrack Hussein Obama.

The Washington Post tells us that Barry O is leading le Resistance:

Former President Barack Obama, who has kept a low public profile since leaving the White House a year and half ago, is wading back into politics ahead of the November elections.

Obama will actively help Democrats in competitive races, aides close to him say, and he is stepping up fundraising efforts for the party.

Soetoro has always been the avatar of the bi-coastal elite: the super educated, the white collar worker, the progressive. We have little doubt that Obama will raise tons of cash. We hope he does.

Like the rest of the left, Barrack Obama is incapable of learning. As the 2010 midterm elections approached,  and the Red Wave built, Hussein assured nervous Dems, 'You've got me.' The GOP took 63 House seats. With BHO the Dems got shellacked again in 2014.

Over the course of the Obama presidency the Dems lost over 900 elective offices nation wide. He left an eviscerated party. And now Barry is back.

There will be no Blue Wave

The intrepid lawyers at Powerline and Legal Insurrection  dive into the coming 'Blue Wave' and come up skeptical. Both quote Roger Kimball who writes sensibly in Spectator USA:

Sure, it is possible that the Republicans will lose a few House seats. But Trump’s increasingly broad-based support and the astonishing success of his agenda make it just as likely that the Republicans will gain a few seats.

Earlier Kimball makes note of Barrack Hussein Obama's massive 63 seat loss in 2010.

Let us also recall W's 32 seat loss in 2006 and Clinton's 54 seat loss in 1994.

Remember all three presidents got shellacked becuase of major legislative calamities, unpopular policies, wars, etc...

Trump is popular. Trump's policies are popular. The Democrat Party is running against Trump's popular policies.

Ergo? IE? IG? I don't give a fuck, there will be no Blue Wave.

In Which Newt Gingrich Agrees with William Stroock

Quoth Newt:

The great political surprise of 2018 will be the size of the Republican victory.
After members of the elite media have spent two years savaging President Trump, lying about Republican legislation, and reassuring themselves that Republican defeat was inevitable, the size of the GOP victory in 2018 will be an enormous shock.

I agree. I know I've written this somewhere before, but Newt knows a thing or two about electoral waves. As House Minority Whip he engineered the GOP Coup of 1994 and took over congress. He saw it coming when no one else did.

Ten years later, when the al Qiada sympathizers in the media leaked phony exit polls saying that Senator Jean Francois Kerry (Vichy-Fr) was going to win, Newt took one look at the poll internals and said Merde. He then went on Rush, went all over right-blogisphere to proclaim said polls Merde. I watched, read and listened to that unfold in real time.

So when Newt, a fellow alternate history author I might add, says the GOP will win bigly in 2018, the GOP will win bigly in 2018.

Talking about the sex-perverts running the media, his Newtness also notes this:

As I listened to the end of the year "analysts," I was struck by how little they know, how little they have questioned their own mistakes, and how mutually reinforcing their false information has been.

Damn straight. How wrong were these people last year? They didn't just say Trump was going to lose, Charlie Cook, Chuck Todd, Chris Everett Mathews and all the rest of them said Hillary! had a 98.6 percent chance of winning.

Meanwhile, your humble blogger had been screaming for weeks that Trump was going to win.

Who to trust now....lemme see here.. let's roll play this...fade to a JEOPARDY!

[Oh for fek sake. Why do you do this to me, lord?-Ed]

Alex Trebek:     'Humble William Stroock Reader (HWSR), you have the board.
HWSR:              'I'll take political prognosticators for a hundred, Alex.'
Alex Trebek:     [bells and buzzing] 'A Daily Double'.
HWSR:              'Hmmmmm....let's make it a true Daily Double, Alex!'
Alex Trebek:     'Answer...a brilliant author who correctly predicted Trump's victory...'
HWSR:             'Who is...William Stroock?.
Alex Trebek:     'Correct!'

So there you have it.

Charlie Cook says a blue wave is building for 2018. William Stroock says there will be a Republican realignment.

Who's the smart money on, motherfucker?

answer