Yon who knows a thing or two about insurgencies, says Hong Kong is a Category-1 Insurgency:
Cat 1: Nipping and still snarling. Relatively minor economic attacks such as short closures of airport and MTR stations. Roads. Sides dehumanizing each other -- calling each other dogs, roaches, etc. This is precursor to killing. (We are here right now. At lowest end of Cat 1. Just starting minor insurgency.)Yon says Category-5 is Iraq.
The authorities have withdrawn the controversial extradition bill, but what next? Is it too late to go back?
Chairman Xi has lost face. Between Hong Kong, protests spreading to the mainland, growing condemnation of the Uighur situation, and the trade war with the U.S., Chairman Xi is under enormous pressure. This blog believes it's only a matter of time before he snaps.
When Chairmen Deng sent the tanks into Tiananmen Square, President Bush dispatched Scowcroft the snake to reassure Beijing that the massacre changed nothing. Were Xi to do the same, the international situation would explode. Xi would create a new weakness that Trump, the master, would exploit ruthlessly.
Xi must act but can't.
