Seventy-Five Years

So, seventy-five years since VE day. That number's a bit worrisome. It's a nice round number, divisible by itself and three.

Because here's the thing reader(s). After 1945 we got off lucky. Of course there wasn't peace from 1945 till 2020 anymore than there was peace during the 99 years between Waterloo and the Marne. But from 1815 to 1914 there was no continent-wide conflagration. And then it all ended with a trivial assassination. Why, we bet on the morning of 29 June, 1914 the average Englishman saw the headline, shrugged and got on with his morning tea.

'What's this about Austria then, dear?'

'They assassinated the crown prince.'

'Oh I do hope they have a lovely and proper funeral.'

'Hyacinth...'

When the Wuhan Flu from Wuhan China broke out, we assured Middle Daughter, 'Don't worry. China's a real country. They can handle this?'

Go on, hit the laugh-track button. Because The Seventy-Five Years Peace is a great title for a history book.

Huan Ying Zhōngguó

Ni Hao, Chinese readers! This weekend we've been inundated by visitors from Beijing and Hangzhou.  We believe they're drawn here by our B is for Bats, Which Beijing Boils post. Hey, you guys over there ever notice that Xi Jinping looks a lot like Winnie the Pooh? It's True:

Oh, and thanks for the Boiled Bat Bug, Beijing.

Here in America, after the malevolence and incompetence of the Chinese Communist Party forced us into lock down, people have been thinking that we've seen the worst and it will all be over soon. This blog is guilty of that as well.

One of the huge mistakes a historian can make is to look to the past for similar examples of a current event and assuming the current event will follow the same path.

Even so, what if this isn't the end, but the beginning of a hot war with China? World War Two didn't really get going until 1940, and the Great War had a long pause after the hectic summer and autumn of 1914.

Beijing's in a lot of trouble. Rising power? Don't be fooled. China has an aging population, a huge pollution problem, and the world is waking up to what they really are. China has peaked. China will never be more powerful than it is right now. Xi Jinping and the rest of the Chinese Commie Cat Cookers know it. 

The USA is off balance right now, and who knows how much of the Pacific Fleet has been hit by the Commie Kung Fu Flu. Likely? Not really. But possible. [Shrugs, holds out hands as Yidishly as he can] Five percent? There's a Bumbling Beijing Bureau hothead making the same argument over roast dog and pangolin Pecan sauce right now.

Wither China

The trade war, the Hong Kong protests, now this Coronavirus outbreak which seems like a massive public health crisis...

Others have compared the outbreak to Chernobyl, which Gorby thought marked the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union. And why not? China is an authoritarian regime. Beijing has a corrupt and complacent ruling class. The system is held up by lies.

We think Powerline has the measure of the situation. They point out something we've said for twenty years. There's always a nation liberals admiring say will surpass America. Japan and Germany, later the EU (that was always a joke), now China. Whose next?

Once more an authoritarian system is exposed.

Whatever is happening, and we don't know the truth about China yet, and whatever happens, Chairman Xi is having a bad couple of years.

Trump to China: Eat It

Via Ace, an interesting article from foreign affairs analyst  George Friedman* arguing that the Chinese are in deep trouble and Trump has out-maneuvered President Xi. China is facing existential threats from the Uighers and Hong Kong and worries that the contagion could spread to other eastern cities.

We're always wary of these foreign policy grandees, (anyone else remember the Kremlinologists?) and Friedman first entered our consciousness 30 years ago when we read his book, The Coming War with Japan. Still, he makes excellent points.

Trump is winning the trade war and we love how he signed the Hong Kong bill. State Department flunkies certainly warned him against it, worried that doing so would scupper the trade talks. But Trump being Trump he did it anyway. Why? He's negotiating from a position of strength. He can publicly humiliate Xi and still get what he wants.

That's based.

*Not Tom and no relation.

Xi Loses Face and more Face

The Hong Kong protests continue and have spread to the mainland.

Chinese media warns the end is near.

Meanwhile Trump is kicking China's ass in the trade war.

At the same time the 'international community' condemns China's Uighur reeducation camps.*

Xi Jinping is not in danger of losing face. Xi is losing face.

When a man who fancies himself the Great Leader loses face trouble is certain.

Anyone else recall what happened the last time a powerful Asian nation lost face? It ended with nuclear weapons.

*This blog has a nuanced and complicated view of that issue.

Plight of the Uighurs hear Muslim Crickets

Remember this next time a Muslim leader complains about Israeli treatment of Palestinians:

More than 1 million Muslim Uighurs in the Xinjiang region of China, their native land, are believed to have been interned in so-called reeducation camps by the Chinese authorities. The number may be as high as 2 or 3 million—out of a population of 11 million. Trapped along with them are Kazakhs, Kyrgyz, and Uzbeks, other Muslim minorities, though in smaller numbers. The Uighurs still on the outside are living in one of the world’s most pervasive and heavy-handed surveillance regimes, in which the camps are just one form of containment and punishment. Uighurs live in constant fear of arbitrary detention and can expect swift retribution for any expression of Turkic or Muslim identity—to the absurd extent that giving your child a traditional Muslim name is illegal.

Of course a million Arabs and Muslims live in Israel and are free to do what they want.

For 70 years the Arab world has used the Palestinians for their own propaganda purposes. The supposedly Arab nationalist Egypt, the supposed Arab kingdom of Jordan, the Gulf States rich on petro-dollars, don't actually want to help the Palestinians. They won't lift a finger to help the Uighur's either.

These are dysfunctional states, Kakocracies who need Israel to distract their people from the failures of their own government.

Israel is the only Middle Eastern nation that actually cares about the Palestinians.

Hong Kong

Via the Beeb, China has caved:

The Hong Kong government has suspended its highly controversial plan to allow extraditions to mainland China, Chief Executive Carrie Lam has announced.

She had previously refused to scrap the bill despite mass protests from Hong Kong residents.

"I feel deep sorrow and regret that deficiencies in our work – and various other factors – have stirred up substantial controversies," she said.

Protesters expressed concern at increased Chinese influence.

Ms Lam said she had heard the calls for her government to "pause and think".

Beijing is currently herding Uyghurs into camps, forcing them to drink alcohol, shave their beards and eat pork, all while demolishing their shrines and cemeteries.

We had feared another Tiananmen Square.  So this developement is stunning, especially given that China is getting its ass kicked in the trade war. Beijing will soon suffer back to back defeats. 

How will it save face? We shudder.

Trump to Iran: Dracarys

Trump plans to send 120,000 troops to the Gulf!

Sabers rattle!

War drums beat!  That sort of thing always sounds like the Tomahawk* chop to me, but whatev.

We think China is pushing Iran to make trouble as a hedge against Trump's looming victory in the trade war.

But there's no reason not to speculate about what the Pentagon is thinking.

Those 120,000 troops would come to about six divisions + support personnel, air force types, navy, coasties, etc etc. That's a back of the envelope calculation.

What do ya think, a division of Marines and the 82nd Airborne to secure the Straights of Hormuz, reinforced by the Big Red One, no? Two divisions to Iraq, one to Syria?

Or are Bolton and the boys gonna get really serious and invade Lebanon.

As we've pointed out before, that would be a cool novel.

I'm gonna be honest, war with Iran, I don't see a down side.

*Took me three tries to spell Tomahawk right, even though I've been writing about Tomahawk missiles all week.

Stroock to China: Drop Dead

So China, we understand you've been talkin' some smack, threatening to sink a carrier or two.

You really wanna go there, bro?

Have you not read the history of the 20th century? 

You know China, we got an entire continent more or less to ourselves. Sure Mexico's annoying, but Canada's a great buddy. We really have a nice set up here.

Then someone goes and thinks they can mess with us. They always regret it.

Before you guys talk shit about us, maybe you oughta speak to the Kaiser, or der Fuhrer or the politburo or Mullah Omar and OBL.

Whoops, my bad, you can't becuase they're all dead. That's how we roll, yo.

Sure the Japanese emperor is still around but that's just us being totally cool after nuking them.

Threats don't make us mad, they just piss us off.

And here's the thing, China, we're really good at toppling tyranny. Again, look at the list. And we like doing it. After we blew the holy fuck out of the Taliban and marched into Kabul we thought, 'Now that we got the juices flowing, who can we take out next?' Then we went and took out Saddam. Go ask him. Ooops, you can't, because we hung the SOB.

So China, watch your mouth and get in step. Or else.

Oh, and we'll take a #4 with extra rice and an egg roll.

Life Imitates Will Stroock

Via Vox Day we learn that China is mobilizing troops in Manchuria against North Korea. In conjunction with the President's deployment of two carrier battle groups to the region, this is interesting.

We suspect that the deployment of Chinese troops is just a diplomatic message to the whack job running North Korea. But what if it isn't? We were stunned when President Trump ordered the strike on Syria. What if he and the Chinese have had enough?

Well, someone's already written a book that covers this. From To Defend the Earth's 2nd chapter:

Six hours into their massive assault, Chinese field commanders reported that the lead brigades of two infantry and two mechanized divisions were across the Yalu and fighting to consolidate their bridgeheads. The already battered and shell-shocked North Korean troops, desperately fighting in isolated and ever shrinking pockets, could not hear the drone of engines high above, the second wave of transport aircraft carrying crack Chinese paratroopers south to Pyongyang. As planned Liao-pen ordered two reserve infantry divisions to begin crossing the Yalu. Once across these divisions were to advance along two axes toward Pyongyang, one near the coast, and one further inland. The 4^th Armored Division would come up behind these two divisions for an eventual dash to Pyongyang.
Liao-pen had been concerned that Kim would lob Scud Missiles into China. He didn’t. Instead he launched them at Japan. None got through, however, as the Japanese Navy’s Aegis destroyers shot them out of the sky. Several dozen North Korean jets also tried to fly across the Sea of Japan, but these were engaged and destroyed by the Japanese air force. By noon the Americans reported that a brigade of the 82^nd Airborne Division had secured Yongbyon but could find no weapons of mass destruction. Again? Liao-pen said to himself. Most importantly as far as he was concerned, the coastal column had pushed more than thirty kilometers inside North Korea and was reporting that resistance was slackening dramatically. The inland column was about halfway to Pyongyang.

Will's Good idea for the Week of 10-2-16

Still on the Sino-Russo war thingy

I think we're going to have to do this, a one off near future techo-thriller like Israel Strikes [Wasn't there a sequel?-ed] shut up, ed.  China Strikes?

Maybe.

Now this is interesting. I've been doing some TO&E research on the Soviet...er Russian defense of the border area. Russian plans reflect a reality. Most of the Singo-Mongolian border is lightly defended with a couple of brigades deployed in the Lake Bakail area.

But, the Khabarovsk, Vladivostok corridor is a fortress with eight brigades plus numerous air defense units, commandos, etc. Russian plans concede  the center to Chinese forces and focus on holding the Pacific coast, one suspects until international pressure builds for a ceasefire or some such.