Israel, Israel, Hezbollah, Hamas

Hamas has been acting up of late, firing rockets at Israel, fomenting riots on the border. Debka reports that Bibi has had enough.

DEBKAfile Exclusive: Israel stands ready for a major war against the Palestinian terrorist organizations of the Gaza Strip. PM/Defense Minister Binyamin Netanyahu relayed this warning to Hamas via the Egyptian intelligence delegation which arrived in the Gaza Strip on Sunday, Sept. Sept. 8 and went into conference with Hamas leader Yahye Sinwar. The message warned Hamas that the escalating attacks on Israel and threats of violence of late had prompted a decision in Jerusalem to opt for a general war as the only way to put a stop to the terror harassment ongoing year after year. This message was Israel’s last warning and final notice to Hamas.

This blog remains skeptical that a general war with Hamas can accomplish anything other than creating and bouncing rubble.

Meanwhile the Times of Israel reports that the IDF is on maneuvers: 

The Israel Defense Forces on Sunday launched a large-scale exercise simulating war against Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian forces in the north of the country. The drill, known in Hebrew as Even HaRosha, or Keystone, will largely be focused on the performance of senior officers and their staffs, rather than on fighting tactics and maneuvers, the army said.

We question the timing. 

As noted previously, we now believe the Israelis have utterly compromised Hezbollah and are capabale of delivering a near knockout blow within a week.

Bibi looks tough on the eve of the election, no?

Israel to Hezbollah: Don't

An interesting report from Debka File about Israeli intentions in case of Hezbollah action:

Israel categorically rejected Hizballah’s proposal of a “limited reprisal” to close the books on the IDF’s weekend attacks in Beirut and East Lebanon. The offer, as a formula for averting a general flareup of hostilities, was made during an exchange of back-channel messages on Tuesday, Aug. 27. However, as DEBKAfile’s military and intelligence sources reveal here, it was flatly rejected by Israel who replied unequivocally that any Hizballah attack on a military or civilian target -“limited” or not – would elicit a crushing Israeli blow against its forces in Lebanon. For added muscle, the Israeli Air Force has been maintaining a round-the-clock presence over Lebanon, ready to strike Hizballah for any aggression without delay.

Remember, Israel launched a massive air and artillery campaign against Hezbollah during the first week of the 2006 war. Had they ended the effort then, the Israelis could have walked away claiming success. 

Given that the Israelis smash everything Hamas every time Hamas attacks, their threat to unleash hell in Lebanon is quite credible.

Exit question: would the Israelis test new gizmos, tactics, etc, or hold them back for the big show?

Follow up: would the Israelis turn this into the big show?

Israel Strikes X 10

Debka File reports that the Israelis really whacked Syria the other day:

One of Israel’s largest attacks is reported by Syrian sources to have swept across 10 targets across the country early Monday, July 1. They included Damascus Mezza military airport; Iranian and Hizballah military facilities at Al Kiswa south of Damascus; the base of the Syrian 1st Division; the Syrian military “research” institute at Jumriyah; military facilities at Siniya; and a chain of Hizballah bases in the Qalamoun Mts straddling the Syrian -Lebanese frontier, as well as bases in the Homs district.

Debka says Hezbollah was about to do something.

Indeed the Jew is clever for Syria is riddled with Zionist spies.

We don't know what we don't know, for as it is written, there are unknown unknowns.

In this case the Israelis know quite a lot, enough to bomb ten targets simultaneously. This blog wonders what we don't know about these strikes.

And by the way, just to keep things really interesting, Iran says it will surpass its uranium enrichment limits this week.

With anyluck, American Strikes will be overtaken by events and we won't have to write it.

Damascus, Bibi

Via Debka File a map of Iranian bases in Syria:

If Israel has a plan to drive Iran out of Syria, what is it?

Let's play armchair general.

We'll start with massive airstrikes, of course. These would first engage and destroy what remains of the Syrian Air Force and Syrian/Iranian SAM sites, especially the dreaded Russian S-300.

With control of the air established the IAF then strikes Syrian infrastructure. Readers will notice the great trunk road bisecting the country down through Damascus.

From there the IDF launches a ground incursion from the Golan toward Damascus. This comes in two prongs. The first prong of two brigades drives east along route 19 and destroys the two southern (purple) bases opposite the Golan. A second prong of three brigades crosses into Syria along Route 7 destroys the remaining purple base, and drives north to the (burgundy) Iranian Guards base at Shibani.

We've sent half the regular Israeli Army into Syria, leaving the other half to deal with Lebanon, should the need arise. This effort would be reinforced by reserve brigades mobilized when the war began.

The question is, what will Hezbollah do? Also, can Hamas be contained in the south while the IDF is rampaging in the north? Doing so would require intense diplomatic pressure from Egypt, no friends of Iran or Hamas.