The Jew Wins

...Jew always wins.

The Times of Israel reports:

Iranian forces are pulling out of Syria and closing military bases there, Israeli defense officials said Tuesday, amid increasing reports of Israeli airstrikes on Iran-linked militias in the country in recent months, including two such incidents late Monday night in which 14 Iran-linked fighters were reported killed. The Israeli officials refused to comment on these reported attacks, maintaining Israel’s policy of ambiguity, under which it generally acknowledges taking action against Iran in Syria without specifically confirming individual strikes, under the assumption that public confirmation increases the likelihood of retaliation.

Over the past few years, the IDF campaign in Syria has been relentless. The IAF hit Syrian army bases, airfields, secret Iranian bases, arms convoys, anything used by Quds force and the Revolutionary Guards. It's a great victory for the IAF and Mossad, which has utterly compromised Syrian security. Indeed the Jew is clever.

When will Assad decide enough Arabs have died for Persian interests?

Israel to Syria: Watch it, Pal

Israel will almost certainly have new elections in the spring and Bibi is facing a challenge within the Likud Party. Our own sense is that the bell hath tolled for Bibi.

Meanwhile the Israelis blew the crap out of Iranian positions in Syria. This very interesting article has the details. The Israelis want Assad and the Iranians to know they will not allow a second Lebanon situation to develop in Syria. When the Jews send a message, the wise leader listens. Just ask Pharaoh.

As we warned our Syrian friend, if Assad isn't careful he's going to fight a war he can't win and thousands of Arabs will die for Persia.

Exit question: How far will the Israelis go? 

Blowed Up Another One

So al-Bagdhadi's carbon footprint has been reduced to zero*.

This blog recalls when we nailed Zarqawi** in Iraq and of course, OBL.

There's always another terrorist.

Which just shows why we should get out of the Middle East and frak like hell.

Trump tweeted about al-Bagdhadi's expiration last night and will be addressing the nation in about 45 minutes. 

Think he doesn't understand PR?

*As Ace would say.
**Spell check recognizes, btw, which tells you what a big deal that was at the time.

Trump Resets the Matrix to Trump

Let there be no doubt that this blog loves everything about President Donald John Trump.

Everything.

Yesterday he has San Fran Nan and the worst Jew in America to the White House for a consultation on Syria, which fell into bitter acrimony and recrimination. 

Good.

Then Trump Trumps. Behold:

Do you think they like me? pic.twitter.com/TDmUnJ8HtF

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 16, 2019

And:

Nervous Nancy's unhinged meltdown! pic.twitter.com/RDeUI7sfe7

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 16, 2019

Trump's troll level on the Trump Troll Level Matrix: Trump.

Trump's achieving Trump on the Matrix was thought to be impossible by physicists, yet he did it. It's the nexus of the troll. The intersection of 4th Street and D. Trump opened up the time tunnel, looked into the abyss and saw Trump.

You ever get the sense that Trump knows what he's doing?

The Turk!

My friend Sarah Abed has an article on what's going on with Turkey, Syria and the imminent invasion of the latter by the former.

This blog is generally a friend of the Kurds, at least in Iraq, but has no opinion on unfolding events.

William Stroock dot BlogSpot dot com's official editorial stance is to let them fight it out.

Israel Strikes X 10

Debka File reports that the Israelis really whacked Syria the other day:

One of Israel’s largest attacks is reported by Syrian sources to have swept across 10 targets across the country early Monday, July 1. They included Damascus Mezza military airport; Iranian and Hizballah military facilities at Al Kiswa south of Damascus; the base of the Syrian 1st Division; the Syrian military “research” institute at Jumriyah; military facilities at Siniya; and a chain of Hizballah bases in the Qalamoun Mts straddling the Syrian -Lebanese frontier, as well as bases in the Homs district.

Debka says Hezbollah was about to do something.

Indeed the Jew is clever for Syria is riddled with Zionist spies.

We don't know what we don't know, for as it is written, there are unknown unknowns.

In this case the Israelis know quite a lot, enough to bomb ten targets simultaneously. This blog wonders what we don't know about these strikes.

And by the way, just to keep things really interesting, Iran says it will surpass its uranium enrichment limits this week.

With anyluck, American Strikes will be overtaken by events and we won't have to write it.

Chinless Ophthalmologist Victorious

Representative Ilhan Omar (D-Mogadishu) and Rashida Tlaib*(D-Ramallah) remind us that eight ears ago this weekend the Syrian civil war began. 

This is a useful reminder of the rivalry between the Islamists and the old line secular Arabist regimes, of which Assad's is the last.

Anyone else remember the Iran-Iraq War?

When Assad the younger took power earlier in the century, we were among the crowd that thought of him as the 'chinless ophthalmologist'. It was a neo-con thing. We assumed Assad and the Syrian state would not survive the war. Yet here he stands on the cusp of victory.

Not bad for a chinless ophthalmologist.

We must say the man has our grudging respect.

*Our Arabic sources tell us this should be pronounced Talib.

Getting Smart but not smart as a Jew

A fascinating read from the Daily Beast.

Israel has been waging a quasi-war in Syria of much greater intensity then we previously realized. At one point they were hitting Iranian targets there several times a week.

The article points out that the Israelis have complete 'intelligence superiority' in Syria. Great term, no? That is, the Israelis have plenty of 'humint' on the ground and know exactly what is happening.

Speaking of knowing exactly what is happening, the Iranians are making Hezbollah dumb missiles smart with guidance packages. If one reads on it seems the Israelis know everything about the guidance system upgrades including how many, as well as when and wear they enter Lebanon

The Iranians must be tearing their hair out. Heh, will the guidance systems even work now? 

After all, the Jew is clever.
 

Damascus, Bibi

Via Debka File a map of Iranian bases in Syria:

If Israel has a plan to drive Iran out of Syria, what is it?

Let's play armchair general.

We'll start with massive airstrikes, of course. These would first engage and destroy what remains of the Syrian Air Force and Syrian/Iranian SAM sites, especially the dreaded Russian S-300.

With control of the air established the IAF then strikes Syrian infrastructure. Readers will notice the great trunk road bisecting the country down through Damascus.

From there the IDF launches a ground incursion from the Golan toward Damascus. This comes in two prongs. The first prong of two brigades drives east along route 19 and destroys the two southern (purple) bases opposite the Golan. A second prong of three brigades crosses into Syria along Route 7 destroys the remaining purple base, and drives north to the (burgundy) Iranian Guards base at Shibani.

We've sent half the regular Israeli Army into Syria, leaving the other half to deal with Lebanon, should the need arise. This effort would be reinforced by reserve brigades mobilized when the war began.

The question is, what will Hezbollah do? Also, can Hamas be contained in the south while the IDF is rampaging in the north? Doing so would require intense diplomatic pressure from Egypt, no friends of Iran or Hamas.

The Coming War with Syria?

Here's a recent map showing military dispositions in Syria:

As readers can see, while the Syrian regime controls most of the country, there are, shall we say, very complicated pockets.

As noted yesterday the Israelis say they have a plan to expel Iran from Syria.

We assume this entails operations east of the Golan, around Syrian airstrips, and the Beirut-Damascus Highway.

What to do about those two Russian flags north of Lebanon?

Well, this is interesting as hell:

“Israel and Russia have a shared interest to expel the Iranians from Syria,” said Gallant, who was speaking at an event in the Jerusalem suburb of Mevaseret Zion....

Gallant, a former top general, said as Syria and its allies have expanded the areas under regime control and inflicted defeats on rebel groups, Russia is no longer reliant on Iran and the two countries are at odds over “who will rebuild Syria.”

His comments mirrored those made Friday by the Russian deputy foreign minister, who denied Russia is allied with Iran and touted his country’s commitment to Israel’s security.

Netanyahu and Putin are in close contact and Bibi visits Moscow regularly for consultations. What could they have been talking about? What has changed that Moscow is denying its' relationship with Iran? 

Moscow cutting ties with Iran (at least in Syria) is a potentially huge development.

Not Lebanon but Syria?

Devotees know that we feel Israel's existential conflict with Iran lies in Lebanon. As such we've considered Syria a secondary theatre.

Hezbollah's rat-lines run through Syria and the Israelis have spent the last year hammering those rat-lines. 

In recent days our thinking has changed. What if the existential conflict lies in Syria and Lebanon is the secondary theatre?

Someone has had the same thought. The Times of Israel reports: 'Immigration Minister Yoav Gallant on Saturday said Israel has a plan in place to expel Iranian forces from Syria...'

Now that's complicated as hell. You have Syria, Iran, Russia (!), Isis, Kurds, pro-American rebels....in other words, typical Middle East.

We'll return to the ToI article tomorrow. In the meantime, readers may want to brush up:

Wither the Levant

Well, the bellicose rhetoric is spewing this morning.

Iran is threatening to destroy Israel, Israel is threatening to unleash biblical level destruction on Gaza, etc etc.

Yes, it gets dull after a while.

Readers should recall that the Six Day War started becuase Nassar and Assad kept one-upping each other, rhetorically speaking. 

In the Middle East it's important to show that you hate Israel more than the other guy.

Arabs love that crap.

Devotees will recall that we believe the existential conflict will result in the destruction of Lebanon. But given all the action in Syria the last year, we ask ourselves, why not war with Syria first?

We're envisioning an Israeli version of President Nixon's highly successful Cambodian Incursion of 1970. In this effort Israel would destroy every Iranian base in Syria, cut the Beirut/Damascus highway and destroy other infrastructure.

Doing so would destroy Iran's conduit to Hezbollah.

I mean, what's a little war?

Once more Unto the Levant

Becuase we've been having these really strong, weird dreams that snap us awake at 12:15 or so, we were up for a bit of the blood moon and eclipse.

Meh.

But over Syria were some real fireworks:

The Israeli army said its series of airstrikes on Iranian targets was in response to a surface-to-surface missile that was fired by an Iranian militia at the Golan Heights a day earlier and intercepted by an Iron Dome anti-missile battery. According to Intelligence Minister Israel Katz, the missile attack was aimed at the popular Hermon ski resort, which was full of visitors at the time. Military officials, however, were more circumspect about the target of the missile, saying it could have been either a civilian or a military site on the Golan Heights.

So the Israelis blew up all kinds of Iranian crap around Damascus. When the Syrians fought back, the Israelis blew up all kinds of Syrian crap too.

Syria has always been riddled with Mossad spies. After all the Jew is clever,  and it appears the Israelis always know when and where to hit the Iranians in Syria.

Which begs the question, why not a sustained aerial campaign to wipe out Iran in Syria?

The Middle East: What we Believed on 9-12

Reader(s) will recall that William Stroock dot blogspot dot com supports Trump's withdrawal from Syria and hopes he pulls troops out of Afghanistan, especially Afghanistan.

What the hell does victory in Afghanistan look like?

We're trying to recall our mindset in the first few years after 9/11.

The attacks brushed up against the margins of our life. The phones were jammed. We spent much of the morning tracking down friends and relatives both in the NY region and back in DC, from where we had just moved that July.  Our sister was on the subway when the planes hit. Our grandfather watched the second plane go in. From the Tappan Zee Bridge we saw the smoke cloud obscuring the mighty Hudson River.  Four men in our town (Peapack, NJ) were killed.

We were filled with righteous anger. We listened to Bruce Springsteen's The Rising. We really dug Toby Keith.

Till that point our foreign policy thinking was usually, 'Rubble does not make trouble'.

We stand by that slogan.

Like W we figured, 'You're with us, or you're with the terrorists'. We felt that the Middle East was a sclerotic hell hole. Nations were at best one party socialist states run by dictators (Egypt, Syria, Iraq) or theocracies run by religious nutters (Saudi Arabia, Iran).

We stand by that analysis.

The Middle East was very stable, said the stability fetishists; the likes of Madeline Albright, Brent Scowcroft, Mika Berezniki's father, etc etc. They argued that liberating Iraq would destabilize the Middle East.

To which we said, 'Great! Let's destabilize the Middle East!'

We stand by that argument.

In the wake of 9/11 we felt the Middle East must be changed and Iraq was a great place to start. We thought if we could establish a democracy in the heart of the region, those ideas would spread and undermine the surrounding regimes.

To sum up, we thought the liberation of Iraq would begin the transformation of the Middle East.

We don't think that's happened.

We're with him

Did Trump just Art of the Deal?

So we're bugging out of Syria.

Meanwhile, via Legal Insurrection, we learn that the Gulf States are sending troops to hold things down in northeastern Syria.

At the same time the Turks have postponed their offensive against the Kurdish PKK.

The Russians have agreed to rein in Hezbollah.

And the Saudis are hosting Afghanistan peace talks.

This all sounds horrible to us here at William Stroock dot BlogSpot dot com. 

We were anticipating a January announcement of more troops heading to Syria. 

Why everyone knows one should never let the locals handle the terrorists in their midst. They don't even worry about the bad guy's civil rights and world wide Muslim Sensitivities while vanquishing their nihilistic Islamist enemies.

Madre de Dios, Assad may even launch an offensive during [GASP] Ramadan!

What's he gonna do next, win the war?

Tucked out in Syria

At the risk of doing two foreign policy posts in one day, we think pulling out of Syria is a fantastic idea.

The United States still has troops in Afghanistan.

We don't know what for, or the way forward or the way out of the Hindu Kush.

As Ricky Watters might ask, 'For who? For what?'

We've kicked around ISIS in Iraq and Syria and now we're declaring victory and going home.

Why not?

Many of the usual suspects have voiced their disapproval. Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham we respect, but when Marco Rubio sounds off, we know leaving is the right decision.

If ISIS pops up again why not let Assad handle things? We know he can take care of business, though in any mop up effort he wouldn't respect ISIS' Civil Rights. We consider that a plus.

We are sad to lose General Mattis, of course, but if that's the price of getting out of the Middle East, so be it.

Below the great Tucker Carlson echoes out thoughts in a very interesting discussion:

The Jew Strikes Twice

While the world focused on Jew Hater Marc Lamont Hill, last night the Israelis struck several targets in Syria:

A number of pro-Iranian militia bases and Iranian weapons caches in southern Syria were targeted by Israeli airstrikes on Thursday night, according to the Al-Arabiya news site.

Explosions were also reported in and around the Syrian capital of Damascus, near its international airport, which Israel claims has been used by Iran to supply terror groups with advanced weaponry

As we have written (heh sounds like the Passover Haggadah, god I wish Ed were here) as people fret about Gaza, the existential conflict lies to the north. At least one strike was on the Beirut-Damascus Highway suggesting they nailed a convoy.

Also one really has to admire the Israelis here. They gin up a controversy about Marc Lamont Hill and use it as cover for their strike in Syria.

Indeed the Jew is clever.

Israel's Syrian Campaign

For years Iran has been aiding the Assad regime. As such the Islamic Republic has built a considerable military infrastructure in Syria, much to the alarm of the Israelis.

Here's a very interesting article on Israeli operations in Syria these last few years:

Jerusalem (AFP) - An Israeli military official said Tuesday the army had carried out some 200 strikes in Syria over the past 18 months against mainly Iranian targets, a rare confirmation of such action.

A total of 202 strikes were carried out in neighbouring Syria, the official said, all of which involved "military targets, most of them belonging to the (Iranian) Revolutionary Guards."

Around 800 missiles and bombs were used in the strikes, said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity to confirm the details first reported in various Israeli media.

The Israelis seem to strike with impunity. Last week a large ammunition dump at an airstrip near Damascus just exploded. If there's a mysterious explosion in Syria, it was the Jews. 

Israel has a vast intelligence organization in Syria via the Kurds and Druze, two people with whim the Jews get along. Mossad: It's never an accident.

The unnamed official quoted in the article is delivering a message to Assad and Iran: the Imams are right, the Jew is clever.

Israel has fought these undeclared wars before. Between the Six Day War and the War of Atonement the Israelis waged the War of Attrition against Egypt in which they bombed airstrips, vaporized oil refineries and even raided the coast of Africa and stole a new Soviet radar.

Looks like we'll need to ad another chapter.

Syria: Zebras not from there

The Times of Israel tells us about another mysterious explosion in Syria:

Explosions rocked an area thought to house an Iranian facility near Damascus early Monday morning, according to a report in Sky News Arabia. There was no immediate confirmation of the explosion and it was not clear what may have caused the blasts, which came days after another mysterious explosion at a Syrian base.

As of this writing no one is really sure who did it. Was it an Iranian terrorist workplace accident? Some previously unknown rebel group? Speculation is rampant. But why?

There's an important concept in medicine: the horse vs the zebra. It means if you hear hoof beats behind you, just go ahead and assume it's a horse.*

So if something mysteriously blows up in Syria just go ahead and assume it was Mossad. After all, the Jew is clever and we have a T-shirt that says, 'Mossad: It's never an accident.'

*Learned that watching Scrubs:

Israel's War in Syria

By our count Israel has attacked Iranian bases in Syria on 9 February, 7 April and most recently 29 April. That last one was a doozy moving local Richter scales. Those are only efforts we know about. More attacks are certain.

We've swiped this map from Ynet, which swiped it from the NYTs:

As the reader can see the Iranian presence in Syria is extensive, which is why the Israelis keep hitting Iranian bases there.

Published reports indicate Iran wants to retaliate after the Israeli attack last week. Israel has already said that an Iranian attack on Israeli territory would lead to an Israeli response in kind. We once again draw reader(s) attention to Israel's fleet of five Dolphin class attack subs, each of which can launch a salvo of four cruise missiles.

Of course given that Mossad just smuggled 55,000 pages of Iranian nuclear documents out of the country maybe the Israelis don't need to do anything that visibly dramatic.

After all, the Jew is clever.

In any event, when the war with Hezbollah does come, it seems pretty clear that the conflict will bleed into Syria right away.