An Awful lot of Polls have to be Wrong for Will to be Right

Yesterday afternoon the NYTs released a trio of polls that had Biden walloping Trump in AZ, FL, and PA. Yeah, sure, we thought, the NYTs. Then we checked the crosstabs. In all three the GOP was ahead by a couple of points in the partisan breakdown. Gulp, we thought. Then we went through the rest of the polls, and not only do they show Trump losing, they show the GOP getting wiped out in a blue wave. That was a rough 20 minutes. 

Then we pulled ourselves together. Yes, the polls show Biden winning. But the metrics, by which we mean new voter registrations, digital contacts, door knocking, size of volunteer army, data op, even Twitter followers and YouTube upvotes, these all say Trump is going to win. How about rally attendance? C'mon, man.

Historian Larry Schweikart has a pair of long threads here and here that match our own thinking on the matter. We don't agree with him, he agrees with us. We didn't find Schweikart and decide, oh yes that makes sense.  No, we've been saying the same thing as Schweikart since 2016.** He even points out that in 2018 he got the House wrong, but was right about the Senate and governor's races. This matches our own record exactly.

This week, a CBS News poll says Biden is leading by 10*** and NBC says he's leading by 14(!). These polls said the same thing back in 2016. Meanwhile we looked at the massive enthusiasm gap and said Trump's gonna win. We say the same thing now.

*We obsessed over polls in 2004 thanks RCP! There was no point in obsessing in 2008, we all knew who was going to win. 2012 was the last year we obsessed so.

So reader(s), it just comes down to which measure you believe. We say check the track record first.

**He's broadened our understanding though, Zen Master indeed.

***We'd Rather not. Heh.

Wither Biden, Wither Debates?

This blog maintains Joe is a no-show.

But what if he isn't?

What's the Dem's game for tomorrow? Biden barely leaves his basement now and half the days he doesn't even do that. They 'called a lid' again this morning, 10:00 AM and Joe is done. 

Larry Schweikart thinks Biden's nurses are reversing his sleep schedule so he's 'fresher' in the evenings.

We suppose Joe will have an earpiece for handlers feed him lines, but by the power of Grayskull, that will be a disaster. Trump will call it out, and just think what happens the first time Biden stops, puts his hand on his ear and says, 'What?'.

Trump can sense weakness like no other politician in living memory. He'll see Joe's and exploit them. Just ask Jeb! and Hillary!.

Maybe we're underestimating the enemy. I dunno.

We don't see how Dr. Jill and the rest of the Dems can send Joe up there if they didn't think he could handle it. Or maybe they're just crossing their fingers and hoping for the best.

Our Ruski pals have asked us to provide immediate post-debate comment. Normally we don't watch these things, but if you'd seen our Russian contact, well, you'd do what she asked to. Ah...a sweet and faire lass without a memory of the Soviet Union.

[You stupid, stupid Knobhead-Ed]