Election day Cometh forsooth

I don't really have anything interesting to say on the matter or any special insight.

My sense is this: Mr. Trump peaked at the right time and then surged. He seems to have locked up Fl and OH, IA and NH and has Clinton fighting like mad for PA and MI. If Mr. Trump wins either state then its all over.

Facts:

Early voting totals, once thought to be one of Hillary!'s strengths, now look very good for Mr. Trump.

It seems Mr. Trump is getting about 19 percent of the black vote.

Mr. Trump seems to be doing no worse with Hispanics than Romney.

Via the IBD poll yesterday, it seems Mr. Trump has picked up a lot of female support (there's a joke in there someplace).

As in British parliamentary elections, the Brexit Vote and the Israeli elections, the press and pollsters have underestimated the conservative vote by a couple of points.

The Trump people are really, really motivated.

It is hard to replace the sitting president in your own party, ask Nixon or Algore.

Its a change election. Hillary isn't change.

The economy stinks.

Our foreign policy is a disaster.

At some point, people just want something new, and it doesn't matter how flowed the opposition candidate is. Just ask Bill Clinton.

For these reasons I think Mr. Trump win decently with no election night drama.

We'll see.

Trumpsuaded

This is a persuasion election as Dilbert's Scot Adams likes to say.

That seems obvious but it isn't really.

2012, 2004 and 2000 were turnout elections. The GOP didn't understand that in 2000 and lost it inthe last week. They figured it out in 2004, upping their vote total by 20% and blew it 2012.

2008 and '96 were cooked. The circumstances absolutely favored the guy who won. Ditto 84 which was a coronation for Reagan.

I'm not quite sure where 88 fits into all this.

The last persuasion election I recall was 1980. There, Reagan had to persuade America that he was a viable alternative it Carter. He did in the last week.

Something similar has happened here with Trump. By my reconing he already has 270 (with NH, NV turning red) and the battle is in PA, MI and and CO. I strongly suspect he will win PA and MI.

We'll see of course.

These are my new year's predictions:

-Hillary Clinton will not be the Democrat Party nominee for President
-She will drop out of the race and site 'health reasons'
-Chelsea Clinton will lay the groundwork for running for office in New York State, possibly as the successor to Senator Charles Schummer
-Joe Biden will be the Democrat Party nominee for President
-Marco Rubio will be the next President of the United States
-Governor Nikki Haley will be the next Vice President of the United States
-Israel and Hezbollah will fight ten years after the last fight
-The economy will slip into recession
-Justin Trudeau will become a laughing stock
-Vladimir Putin will take the measure of Trudeau and shift his emphasis to the Arctic
-Everywhere Social Justice Warriors will be on the defensive
-The New England Patriots will win the Superbowl
-The Washington Nationals will win the World Series.

Heh.

Mr. Trump for the Win

Remember in the late 1990's when "science" was telling us that the Atkins diet was quackery. They knew, everyone knew, that the way to be healthy and trim was to eat low fat, high carb. I mean, this was science, people. Meanwhile, you, me, everyone reading this knew someone who went on the Atkins diet and not only lost weight, but lost it fast. By the early 2000s science surrendered to fact. Fat does not make you fat, and your health is mostly a result of your genetics.

Bear with me here.

A few weeks ago polls were telling us that Hillary! was not only ahead, but way ahead. Meanwhile you, me, everyone reading this knows people who love Mr. Trump. We've seen the yard signs and bumper stickers pop up all over the place. Let's not even get to these raucous rallies of 10, 20, 30,000 people, standing in line for hours to see Mr. Trump. Meanwhile Hillary! – well, she gets a few hundred osteoporosis-stricken baby boomers. Something is going on here.

I am reminded of the great P.J. O'Rourke, who I first read at the age of 19 in 1992, writing about the Nicaraguan election of 1989. Polls there showed the Sandies were going to beat the Violetta Chmoro and the opposition UNO Party. Then on election day he saw people standing in line for hours to vote. O'Rourke confessed that he made the mistake of believing opinion polls in a country where it was illegal to hold certain opinions. The UNO romped, btw.

Anyone who thinks it is not illegal to hold certain opinions here in Obama's America is a fool.

I'm going to tell you another story:

New York City, 1948. A young Mark Stroock II is walking down the street when he gets caught up in a big rally of angry, PO'd city workers who have been told by their union bosses to attend the political rally or else. It's 5:30 and these guys are angry and ready to throw beer bottles. Up to the podium steps the embattled President Harry S. Truman, whom Gallup has assured the nation is going to lose badly. By the end of that rally Truman had those angry city union workers chanting his name and cursing their boss, Governor Thomas E. Dewey. Mark Stroock bet his friends Give em Hell Harry would win and got 8-1 odds.

Trump is going to win. We see the evidence everywhere. Don't believe "science".  Believe your lyin' eyes.

Tuesday Tally

Why Aren't I 50 points ahead?! Edition

In any normal year Mr. Trump would be finished. He's not. Why not? Most of the reasons are baked into the the fabric of elections. Let's see:

1-It is very, very hard to replace a president in your own party, ask Algore or Richard Nixon. Its been done twice, Martin Van Buren in 1836 and George Bush in 1988 (breaking the Van Buren Rule).

2-Its a change election. Hillary! is many things. Change ain't one of them.

3-Hillary! is a bad, horrible, no good candidate (why aren't I 50 points ahead?!')

4-The people who really love Mr. Trump, really love Mr. Trump. Nobody actually loves Hillary! Not even Hillary!.

5- Hillary!'s year was 2008 and she blew it.

Bonus: '88 was Boddole's year, he got the nomination in '96. 2000 was John McCain's year, he got the nomination in 2008. 2012 was Jeb! Bush's year and too bad his last name is Bush. Adlai Stevenson never had a year, losing in '52 and '56; he even tried to get the nomination in '60, loser.