The Middle East without Iraqi Freedom

Apropos of yesterday's post about Tucker Carlson vs Ralph Peters and Max Boot, let's imagine the United States never liberated Iraq. What would the Middle East look like?

President Bush basically ends the war with victory in Afghanistan.

-In 2017 American forces are still in Afghanistan fighting the Taliban and al-Qaida.
-The 'Arab Spring' still happens. It happened organically within the Arab world and independently of anything the U.S. did.
-Mubarak is still out in Egypt with the same Brotherhood to military rule we have today.
-The Iran situation is unchanged. They are still working on nukes. Iran is still partnered with Hezbollah.
-Re Israel, there is every reason to think the 2002, 2006, 2009, and 2014 wars still happen.
-Because we have the Arab Spring we still have the rise of ISIS.

Really, the great question here is what does Saddam do? We think the most likely Saddam scenario is:

-Sanctions lifted.
-when the Arab Spring comes Iraq is plunged into a massive civil war like Syria but on a larger scale.
-Iran backs the Shia in Iraq.
-The Gulf States back the Sunnis and Saddam.
-The US backs the Kurds.

So we think the Middle East is still in turmoil but many of the details are different.

By the Way, World War 1990: Operation Eastern Storm has Saddam invading Kuwait. One of the things we will deal with in the final novel is the implications of a world where Saddam is the king of the Middle East.

The Neocon vs Himself

Via the incomparable Ace, we have two interviews by the equally incomparable Tucker arguing with Ralph Peters and Max Boot about Russia and Iraq.

We are with Tucker on Russia, we just don't see where Putin is a threat. What do we care if he messes with Ukraine? We're perfectly happy that he blew Chechnya to smithereens and quite pleased with his actions in Syria. Basically the interests of Russia and the U.S. are temporarily aligned.

Now Max Boot wanted to remove the Mullahs in Afghanistan, Saddam in Iraq, Qadafi (pick a spelling, I don't care) in Libya, and Assad in Syria. And here he is trying to recast Putin's Russia as the Evil Empire of 1985. It is as if he never learns.

Look folks, we're an unrepentant Neocon at least on Iraq. We think the liberation is was right and good. We lost 4,500 dead and 40,000 wounded. We spent a trillion dollars and who cares about that. You're average lefty would be thrilled to spend a trillion on condoms, birth control pills and abortions so please. We can debate those points but the fact is we won the war in Iraq.

Personally we never saw the point in getting rid of Qadafi who was a benign and somewhat helpful dictator. We recall the 80's where Reagan kept having to whack him around. Mo hadn't made trouble since. Here's the intro to an article we wrote about him for S&T:

On the night of 14 April, 1986, a flight of A-6 Intruders and A-7 Corsairs from the carriers USS America and USS Coral Sea launched a barrage of 42 HARM and Shrike missiles at radar and Surface to Air Missile sites all along the Libyan Coast. This was just the opening salvo.  Eighteen American F-111 Aardvarks bombed Libyan airfields and installations, including the headquarters of Colonel Muamar Qadhafi, and destroyed more than a dozen aircraft. This was not the first military encounter between Libyan and American forces. On 24 March, the two navies fought a series of skirmishes which cost the Libyans five naval craft.  As far back as 1981, American F-14s had engaged and destroyed a pair of Libyan Mig-25s which had challenged them in the disputed Gulf of Sidra. The American raid of 14 April, called Operation El Dorado Canyon, may not have been the first battle between the two nations, but it was the last.            To Americans of a certain age, Colonel Muamar Qadhafi, president for life of Libya, is a blustering buffoon, a toy dictator mocked on T-shirts calling him ‘Qadhafi Duck’. For much of Africa, however, Qadhafi was a dangerous revolutionary, seeding chaos and terror throughout the continent. Seeking to spread his brand of Pan Arab Marxism, Qadhafi has waged war against the nations of Egypt, Uganda, and Chad. Like his ill-advised skirmish with the United States, Qadhafi’s African adventures ended in failure and humiliation, costing billions in treasure and equipment and thousands of lives.

At least he held no truck with Isis and AQ. When Barry threatened to bomb Syria in 2011 we were dead set against it. Frankly, after Iraq we had had enough.

Libya is Hillary!'s greatest accomplishment.

The Question Peters and Carlson debate on, and we think it was a useful back and forth which both men, managed to keep civil after nearly crossing the line, was the liberation of Iraq good in the long run.

We supported the liberation of Iraq. We saw it as part of the horribly named war on terror. We thought it was a good thing. In the words of M. Wolfowitz we thought the liberation would be a 'cakewalk'. Well that didn't happen. Peters says he would not today support such an action.

Ourselves? Ok, Iraq chose electors to a constitutional convention, had a referendum on that constitution, elected a government, had another election and even a peaceful transfer of power.
Iraq is playing a major role in the defeat of ISIS.

We'll delve into this some more in a later post.