On Believing the Polls

Even Rasmussen says Trump is getting creamed. 

If you believe Rasmussen then you have to believe NBC and CNN too. Or if you believe CNN and NBC then you have to believe Rasmussen, long held by this blog as the most accurate poll.

If we believe the polls, here's the explanation. Trump has botched the Wuhan Virus and the nation believes Biden will do a better job. Also the nation is simply tired of Trump.

But...but...the polls were wrong in 2016. 

Yes, and the polls today show Biden beating Trump by an even greater margin.

So they're just that more wrong.

No excuses.

That's the explanation.

Boy an awful lot of polls have to wrong...

Beware the Silver Svengali

Every election has its Svengali, its schwamie who can look at the data and predict what will happen.

This year it was Nate Silver at 538. I never paid him much attention, though I admit he called 2012 on the dot. Most of my liberal friends check him daily to see that 'everything was all right'. Well he blew it. He shouldn't feel bad, he's not the first.

After the '96 election the best pollster was John Zogby. He nailed the vote percentages that year and picked up Gore's last minute movement in 2000. Then he wrecked himself in 2004, waiting till 5 PM on election night to make his predictions, after the exit poll data came in. That data was deeply flawed. Zogby predicted Jean Francois Kerry (A-hole, France) would win 390 electoral votes. He didn't.

The big winner in 2004 was Scott Rasmussen, who became something of a cult leader among us poll watchers. I was the leader of that cult. He nailed the 2002 off years, 2004, 2006, and 2008 (which was easy) and 2010. He was dead last in 2012 and was ousted by his own board.

So now Nate Silver goes down. I guess the IBD Poll is the new Svengali. I wonder how they'll get it wrong in 2020.