Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Remember, One year ago Today Stroock was right...

....and CNN, Chuck Todd, Politico, Mark Halperin, William Kristol, The New York Times, Charlie Cook, George Will, ABC News, Piers Morgan, the BBC, Rachel Maddow, Don Lemon, Pinch Sulzberger, Nate Silver, The Boston Globe, The Huffington Post, Ana Marie Cox, The New Republic, Chris Mathews, Vanity Fair, Tina Brown, Donnie Deutch, The New Yorker, Pat Schoen, Bob Shrum, NBC News, Cenk Uyger, The View, Joan Walsh, and The Washington Post, were wrong.

Will Stroock was right.

Here's what we wrote on election mourn:
I don't really have anything interesting to say on the matter or any special insight.
My sense is this: Mr. Trump peaked at the right time and then surged. He seems to have locked up Fl and OH, IA and NH and has Clinton fighting like mad for PA and MI. If Mr. Trump wins either state then its all over. Facts:
-Early voting totals, once thought to be one of Hillary!'s strengths, now look very good for Mr. Trump.
-It seems Mr. Trump is getting about 19 percent of the black vote.
-Mr. Trump seems to be doing no worse with Hispanics than Romney.
-Via the IBD poll yesterday, it seems Mr. Trump has picked up a lot of female support (there's a joke in there someplace).
-As in British parliamentary elections, the Brexit Vote and the Israeli elections, the press and pollsters have underestimated the conservative vote by a couple of points.
-The Trump people are really, really motivated.
-It is hard to replace the sitting president in your own party, ask Nixon or Algore.
-Its a change election. Hillary isn't change.
-The economy stinks.
-Our foreign policy is a disaster.
-At some point, people just want something new, and it doesn't matter how flowed the opposition candidate is. Just ask Bill Clinton.
-For these reasons I think Mr. Trump win decently with no election night drama.
We'll see.
We ran no statistical analysis. We made no use of data analytics.

[You don't even know what analytics are, dumb Yank-Ed]

Quite right.

But with our crappy, on-line degree, and our self published books, and our own knowledge of history we saw what none of those above mentioned political geniuses saw. Trump was going to win.

[You were lucky. After all, you blew 2012-Ed].

Also quite right.

But we called 2000. We knew Bush was going to surprise in the 2002 midterms because we had this unfair internet advantage, (RCP). We knew Bush was going to win in 2004. As soon as the financial collapse happened we knew Barry would win. We knew the GOP would rock in 2010 and 2014.

Ok, Ok we thought the GOP would hold on, barely, in 2006. Oh well. We're 6-2.

It ain't rocket science people. And it ain't luck either Ed, so fuck you.

Always trust content from William Stroock.

Always.

Nice hat

3 comments:

  1. So what will you be saying in a year? Who will be the winners and losers of the midterms?

    Will Carmichael

    ReplyDelete