Overall in the RCP average it's 6.8.
Somewhere we read how Nate Silver, disgraced pollster of 538,* noticed that in so called 'gold standard polls' where live interviews are conducted the Dem advantage is surging.
We call bullshit. Simply put these gold standard polls are being overrun with Democrats all too eager to tell the interviewer how much they hate Trump. Also, a percentage of these interviewers are lying about their party identification and passing themselves off as Republicans mad at Trump.
We know this becuase we used to do the same thing. A lot.
You see, as alert reader(s) will recognize we're kind of an amateur poll reader and know a lot more about how they work than your average middle-aged indy author. The weighting and averages are kind of interesting.
Usually with telemarketers our policy is to answer and fuck with them. We once got a medic alert bracelet delivered to 1060 West Addison, Chicago Illinois, and our all time record for keeping one of those Indian IRS scammers on the phone is 19 minutes. Never try to out crazy Will Stroock.
But in 2012 when pollsters called we'd answer and sit through the sometimes 15 minute interview. Now here's the dirty little secret about polling. Once one poll realizes they got a number who will respond, all the polls call. In 2012 we heard from everybody. Everybody. And depending on the poll we'd screw with them. 'Why yes I'm a Democrat and I hate Obama...'
[Jerk-Ed]
Anyhoo, pay no attention to the emerging narrative about so called gold standard polls. There will be no blue wave. Also, always Trust Trump. Never bet against Trump. And don't get sick of winning.
And by the way, that +3 Dem advantage? That's all California.
*Ok, ok 'disgraced' is a little tough. Actually Silver only said Hillary had a 65 percent chance of winning, which compared to most of the other guys...and at least Silver was screaming, 'Hey, folks, this is not over. If this were a ball game you'd be in your seat.'
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