At 19FortyFive, more speculation about spring operations in Ukraine. The Russians will launch an offensive, the target seems to be Kiev. What's the strategy here? Force Ukrainian troops to defend Kiev and attrit them? Maybe. Okay, Vlad. You take Kiev and then what? Hmmm....destroy Ukrainian forces, take Kiev and then accept 20 percent of Ukraine as Joe has offered?
The Jerusalem Post reports the Ukes plan to use their new Leopard and Abrams tanks as an 'armored fist'. We think talk of a Ukranian offensive to take Crimea is a pipe dream. With limited resources, how would the Ukrainians amass enough force for a grand offensive? Russian defenses in and around Crimea must be formidable. Modern NATO weapons are great, but won't matter if Ukraine doesn't have men with rifles fighting for and standing on a thing.
This blog speculates that all the fighting in Bakhmut/Donetsk is designed to bleed the Ukes and draw their forces away from the Ruski's main target. Bakhmut is pretty far from Kiev. The Insitute for the Study of War thinks Bakhmut/Donetsk is the main front. This is in keeping with Stroock's Books 'Take Kiev, then what?' problem.
Everyone is talking about troop buildups for the spring offensive, but this blog wonders about Russian efforts to shore up logistics. What is the status of the roads and rails leading into Ukraine?
Stroock's Books doesn't know what will happen. Stroock's Books does know the prevailing narrative is a chimera. Exit question, if the Ruski's target is Ukraine, would they attempt another airborne landing around the city followed up by a ground attack? Why wouldn't they?
Commercial break. A Russian army recruitment commercial. Say what you want about the Ruski's, but they're based AF. Also, paras! Which will be a huge factor not only in Ukraine, but in World War 1990: The Final Storm:
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