Trudeau and Israel
After Hamas claimed that the Israelis had bombed a hospital, Trudeau was quick to condemn it and claim that it was a war crime. Once it became clear that the Israelis had not bombed any hospitals and the explosion was the result of a misfiring Hamas rocket, Trudeau was strangely quiet. He needed “more proof” that Israel was not responsible.
Or perhaps not so strange. Trudeau represents a Quebec riding (think congressional district). And Quebec is Canada’s most antisemitic province by far. He’s not really interested in alienating his voters. So, if his voters dislike the Jews, Trudeau will find a way to condemn them. It goes farther than that too. Trudeau has had, by any account, a terrible year. First, his wife has left him. Canadian media, while reporting on this separation, have an argument that boils down to “don’t be mean to Justin Trudeau, he’s having a bad time”. Second, his polling numbers, both personal and for his party, have tanked. In August, most polls had the Canadian Conservate Party polling at either a minority government (winning the greatest number of seats but not 50%+1) or a bare majority. Two months later, most polls have the Conservatives in absolute landslide territory. 200+ seats out of 338. There is, at present, nothing that would turn these numbers around for Trudeau and the Liberals.
So, this has led, I think, to Trudeau thinking about his future. He is, truthfully, one of the least educated Prime Minister’s in history. He is not a lawyer and holds no advanced academic degrees beyond a bachelor’s degree from McGill University in Montreal. McGill is an excellent school, but rumor has it Trudeau got in based on his father’s reputation. So, there is no chance he can join a prestigious law firm as many of his predecessors have. He was previously a drama teacher and a part time snowboard instructor. So, it is unlikely that Bay Street (Canada’s equivalent to Wall Street) would be interested in him. His economic polices have been disastrous. The less said about his response to Covid, the better. I agree with something Sarah Hoyt said a few weeks ago. He, like most Western leaders, was expecting to be basking in “the thanks of a grateful nation”. Instead, people are slowly realizing that he overreacted and bungled the entire “pandemic”. One way or another, he is on his way out. Either through electoral defeat or his own party getting rid of him.
What does that leave? International work. The problem there is that since he was elected, most Western leaders have viewed him as a dilettante at best and an unserious fool at worst. I lean towards the latter interpretation. That means it’s unlikely that he would be tapped for some high-profile work with the EU or anything in North America. He has alienated India by claiming without proof that the Indian government murdered a Canadian citizen and China has far too many problems to take on Trudeau as another one. He was their useful fool.
What does that leave? The United Nations and the Arab countries. Trudeau would dearly love to be elected the UN Secretary General, but that is likely not in the cards. Trudeau has become, I think, accustomed to a private jet (provided by the Canadian military) and motorcades with security everywhere. Anything less with the UN would not give him the prestige and recognition he clearly desires.
So, what is a failing and flailing Prime Minister to hope for? That a wealthy country, or several wealthy countries will hire him on as a consultant, special rapporteur, or something similar. And the only countries left with any wealth that might hire him are Arab ones. So, he must make himself useful to them. If that means whistling past the graveyards of Israelis murdered by terrorists while tacitly supporting Hamas? Then that is, what I think, he will do. The Jews can’t offer him the lifestyle he desires. But maybe the Arabs can.
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