In Canada, we have the “Carbon Tax”. This is sold as a tax on pollution, carbon in the atmosphere and is a critical part of Justin Trudeau’s “just transition” to a “green economy”. There are so many problems with this idea it would be difficult to know where to start, but it looks like the carbon tax is about to die. How did this happen?
Earlier this week a delegation of MPs (Members of Parliament – think Congressmen) went to Justin Trudeau and told him that he needs to suspend the carbon tax on home heating oil, which is used in about 40% of homes in Atlantic Canada (Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick and Nova Scotia). Trudeau announced this change with about 25 MPs from Atlantic Canada standing behind him.
Before I go any further, a little background [Explain it to the dumb Yanks - Ed]. In Canada, there are 338 seats in Parliament. These seats are not evenly distributed across the country but are concentrated in certain areas. Atlantic Canada has about 40 seats. The North (Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut) have 3. The rest (about 295) are spread out over three regions. Quebec, Ontario and the West (Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia). In addition, there are three parties in Canada that are national (think like Republicans and Democrats), one regional party (the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec) and one party that is trying to be national but keeps failing (the Greens). The national parties are the Conservatives (to the left of Republicans but pretty centrist). The Liberals (to the left of the mainstream Democrats but still pretty centrist) and the New Democratic Party (NDP) which is to the left of everyone, including any socialist party you can name. In order to win, a party must do well in two of the three major regions. Atlantic Canada is generally too small and politically fractured to be considered a major region a party must court.
So, the fact that the Liberals, who are completely wedded to the idea of the carbon tax have suddenly decided to suspend it for three years in Atlantic Canada is a major change. In addition, since this was announced the Premier of Saskatchewan has stated that if the government does not carve out an exception for natural gas, Saskatchewan will simply stop collecting the carbon tax as of January 1, 2024. British Columbia, Manitoba, Alberta and Ontario are making similar noises. Justin Trudeau has said that there would be no more exceptions.
The problem for the Liberals is that the Carbon tax has cause massive inflation across Canada and is hitting the poor and middle class extremely hard. Gas, heating, electricity, food, building materials – all have to be transported and sold and all are being hit with the carbon tax. So, Canadians’ standard of living has been dropping. Up to now, a rebate is issued that the Liberals claim will offset the tax and put more money in Canadians’ pockets. The rebate has been smaller than the costs of the tax and suspending the Carbon Tax has shown that the Liberals are in serious trouble as it is clearly costing Canadians money.
Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Opposition Conservatives has now said he wants the Carbon tax suspended, and an election run on it. Liberals have begun saying that Trudeau needs to step down and let someone else run the country before that election happens. And most pundits in Canada are saying that if the Carbon tax does not apply to all Canadians equally, it should not be in place at all.
How is this bad for Trudeau? This is another one of his policies that have failed. And it is another policy he has had to back down on, further dropping his popularity. For the Liberals, their mantra for the past century has been “get power at all costs, keep power at all costs”. Trudeau is costing them power. We may see him gone before too long.
One last note. Trudeau’s [non biological-Ed] father (Pierre Trudeau) in 1984 took a proverbial “walk in the snow” to decide if he wanted to continue being Prime Minister. He decided to step down. His popularity at the time was tanking, just as Justin Trudeau’s popularity is tanking. Since then, the “walk in the snow” has been used to describe any Prime Minister who may decide to resign rather than continue. I think Justin Trudeau will be taking a “walk in the snow” before too long. If not, his own party may push him out to try to reverse their decline in popularity.
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